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Modelling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach

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  • Jaba Ghonghadze
  • Thomas Lux

Abstract

This article estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2009a). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from the rich EU business and consumer survey database for 12 European countries. The model parameters are estimated through Maximum Likelihood (ML) and numerical solution of the transient probability density functions for the resulting stochastic process. The model's success is assessed with respect to its out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to univariate Time Series (TS) models of the Autoregressive Moving Average model, ARMA( p , q ) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average, ARFIMA( p , d , q ) varieties. These tests speak for a slight superiority of the canonical opinion dynamics model over the alternatives in the majority of cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaba Ghonghadze & Thomas Lux, 2012. "Modelling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3065-3088, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:24:p:3065-3088
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.570716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Teaching an old dog new tricks: Improved estimation of the parameters of SDEs by numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006-01, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    2. Lux, Thomas, 2009. "Mass psychology in action: identification of social interaction effects in the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1514, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach," Working Papers XREAP2018-4, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Oct 2018.
    2. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    3. Raffaele Mattera & Michelangelo Misuraca & Maria Spano & Germana Scepi, 2023. "Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2357-2382, June.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    6. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marina Matošec, 2023. "The persistence of economic sentiment: a trip down memory lane," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 371-395, April.
    8. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.

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