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Avoiding jumps in the rotation matrix of time-varying factor models

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  • Cheung, Ying Lun

Abstract

Time-varying factor models have gained much popularity in recent years. However, the newly developed local estimator is susceptible to a time-varying rotation matrix that may exhibit jumps. This letter proposes a simple method to avoid the jumps. We show by simulations that the proposed procedure can effectively eliminate jumps in the rotation matrix, leading to a substantially lower mean-square forecasting error.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Ying Lun, 2024. "Avoiding jumps in the rotation matrix of time-varying factor models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324008997
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105869
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc & Soccorsi, Stefano & von Sachs, Rainer, 2021. "Time-varying general dynamic factor models and the measurement of financial connectedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 324-343.
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