How to Beat the Random Walk
Out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is a frequently used criterion for evaluating models of exchange rate determination. This paper shows that both UIP and PPP produce better exchange rate forecasts at the ten-year horizon than a random walk without drift. There are two novelties relative to previous studies. First, the effects of extending the horizons beyond four years have not been investigated. This is relevant because the influence of fundamental variables has been shown to increase with the forecasting horizon, and it may take considerably more than four years to reach the long run equilibrium in the case of exchange rates. Second, the exchange rate forecasts implied by uncovered interest parity have been neglected in this literature. UIP is typically rejected in empirical tests using data on short-term interest rates. However, long-term interest rates appear to be a quantitatively important determinant of nominal exchange rate changes.
|Date of creation:||28 Dec 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Wallingatan 38, 4th floor S-111 24 Stockholm|
Web page: http://www.fief.se/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993.
"Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?,"
Economics Working Papers
66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- Alexius, Annika, 1999. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 90, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988.
"Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period,"
368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
- Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-517, August.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
- Chen, Jian & Mark, Nelson C, 1996. "Alternative Long-Horizon Exchange-Rate Predictors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 229-250, October.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sune Karlsson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.