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Alternative Long-Horizon Exchange-Rate Predictors


  • Chen, Jian
  • Mark, Nelson C


This paper employs quarterly observations on US dollar prices of the pound, Deutschmark, Swiss franc, and yen from 1973,2 to 1994,4 to sort out three broad issues raised by recent work showing that economic fundamentals have predictive power for exchange rates at long horizons. Three alternative fundamentals have been proposed in the literature: those implied by purchasing-power parity, uncovered interest parity, and the flexible-price monetary model. We first ask which of these three alternative fundamentals has the most predictive power. Secondly, we ask if pooling across currencies or if using multivariate statistical techniques improves prediction accuracy over standard regression techniques. Thirdly, we examine whether the conclusions drawn from statistical analyses of in-sample econometric estimates concerning long-horizon convergence of exchange rates and their fundamentals coincide with those implied by analyses of out-of-sample forecasts. The short answers to these questions are; the monetary-model fundamentals, yes, and a qualified no. Copyright @ 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Chen, Jian & Mark, Nelson C, 1996. "Alternative Long-Horizon Exchange-Rate Predictors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 229-250, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:1:y:1996:i:4:p:229-50

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    2. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    3. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA.
    4. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    5. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Staff Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
    6. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    7. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    8. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    3. Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
    4. repec:osu:osuewp:014 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    6. Guy M Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting; What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yunus Aksoy & Kurmas Akdogan, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 12, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446.
    9. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "How to Beat the Random Walk," Working Paper Series 175, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    11. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    12. Pantelis Promponas & David Alan Peel, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
    14. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long-Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.
    16. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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