IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2410.06564.html

Green bubbles: a four-stage paradigm for detection and propagation

Author

Listed:
  • Gian Luca Vriz
  • Luigi Grossi

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a significant global concern, attracting increasing attention worldwide. While green bubbles may be examined through a social bubble hypothesis, it is essential not to neglect a Climate Minsky moment triggered by sudden asset price changes. The significant increase in green investments highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of these market dynamics. Therefore, the current paper introduces a novel paradigm for studying such phenomena. Focusing on the renewable energy sector, Statistical Process Control (SPC) methodologies are employed to identify green bubbles within time series data. Furthermore, search volume indexes and social factors are incorporated into established econometric models to reveal potential implications for the financial system. Inspired by Joseph Schumpeter's perspectives on business cycles, this study recognizes green bubbles as a necessary evil for facilitating a successful transition towards a more sustainable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Gian Luca Vriz & Luigi Grossi, 2024. "Green bubbles: a four-stage paradigm for detection and propagation," Papers 2410.06564, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.06564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.06564
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Lubo? P?tor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Climate Risks and the Realized Volatility Oil and Gas Prices: Results of an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Experiment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Peter M. Garber, 2001. "Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571536, December.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    6. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2018. "The model confidence set package for R," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 144-158.
    7. Boubaker, Sabri & Liu, Zhenya & Sui, Tianqing & Zhai, Ling, 2022. "The mirror of history: How to statistically identify stock market bubble bursts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 128-147.
    8. Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Țăran, Alexandra-Mădălina, 2023. "Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Ross, Gordon J., 2015. "Parametric and Nonparametric Sequential Change Detection in R: The cpm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 66(i03).
    10. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    11. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    13. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Phillip J. Monin, 2019. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, February.
    16. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    17. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 145-172, July.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    19. Kassouri, Yacouba & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2021. "Are oil-clean energy and high technology stock prices in the same straits? Bubbles speculation and time-varying perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    20. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    21. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Nicola & Almajali, Awon, 2023. "Connectedness between fossil and renewable energy stock indices: The impact of the COP policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    22. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Konstantinos Gravas, 2022. "Bubble in Carbon Credits during COVID-19: Financial Instability or Positive Impact (“Minsky” or “Social”)?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, August.
    23. Enoksen, F.A. & Landsnes, Ch.J. & Lučivjanská, K. & Molnár, P., 2020. "Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 129-144.
    24. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    25. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    26. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Shi, Shu-Ping, 2018. "Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 705-753, August.
    27. Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Markellos, Raphael N., 2012. "Information demand and stock market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1808-1821.
    28. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    29. Jeremy Bejarano, 2023. "The Transition to Alternative Reference Rates in the OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 23-07, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    30. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    31. Michael Barnett, 2023. "Climate Change and Uncertainty: An Asset Pricing Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7562-7584, December.
    32. Bijl, Laurens & Kringhaug, Glenn & Molnár, Peter & Sandvik, Eirik, 2016. "Google searches and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 150-156.
    33. van den Heuvel, Matthias & Popp, David, 2023. "The role of venture capital and governments in clean energy: lessons from the first cleantech bubble," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    34. Zhang, Dongyang & Wang, Jinli & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Greening through centralization of environmental monitoring?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    35. Arianna Agosto & Alessia Cafferata, 2020. "Financial Bubbles: A Study of Co-Explosivity in the Cryptocurrency Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    36. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    37. Chan, Ying Tung & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy responses to carbon and green bubbles:A two-sector DSGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    38. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    39. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Deconstruction of the Green Bubble during COVID-19 International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    40. Claudio Borio & Stijn Claessens & Nikola Tarashev, 2023. "Finance and Climate Change Risk: Managing Expectations," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 24(01), pages 5-7, January.
    41. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1079-1134, November.
    42. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Transition risk, physical risk, and the realized volatility of oil and natural gas prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. IANCU, Laura Andreea, 2026. "Explosive Price Dynamics In Global Reit Markets: Evidence From Developed Regions," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 30(1), pages 50-67, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta, 2025. "The role of geopolitical and climate risk in driving uncertainty in European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Yang, Hui & Ferrer, Román, 2023. "Explosive behavior in the Chinese stock market: A sectoral analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Laurent, Sébastien & Renò, Roberto & Shi, Shuping, 2026. "Realized drift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    4. Ozkan Haykir & Ibrahim Yagli, 2022. "Speculative bubbles and herding in cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, December.
    5. Ariza, Juan & Ferrer, Román, 2025. "Explosiveness in the renewable energy equity sector: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    8. Podhorsky, Andrea, 2024. "Bursting the bitcoin bubble: Do market prices reflect fundamental bitcoin value?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2026. "Fluctuation-type monitoring test for explosive behavior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 230-249.
    10. Foglia, Matteo & Miglietta, Federica, 2024. "Does every cloud (bubble) have a silver lining? An investigation of ESG financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    11. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2024. "Robust testing for explosive behavior with strongly dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    12. Bellón, Carlos & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2022. "Bubbles in Ethereum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    13. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2024.
    16. Adrian Fernández-Pérez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2025. "El Clasico of Housing: Bubbles in Madrid and Barcelona’s Real Estate Markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2025-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    17. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    19. Cervera, Ignacio & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2024. "Credit risk and bubble behavior of credit default swaps in the corporate energy sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 702-731.
    20. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.06564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.