IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i8p367-d890697.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bubble in Carbon Credits during COVID-19: Financial Instability or Positive Impact (“Minsky” or “Social”)?

Author

Listed:
  • Bikramaditya Ghosh

    (Symbiosis Institute of Business Management, Symbiosis International (Deemed University) Electronic City, Hosur Road, Bengaluru 560100, India)

  • Spyros Papathanasiou

    (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Political Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 1 Sofokleous Street, 10559 Athens, Greece)

  • Vandita Dar

    (Symbiosis Institute of Business Management, Symbiosis International (Deemed University) Electronic City, Hosur Road, Bengaluru 560100, India)

  • Konstantinos Gravas

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, School of Finance and Statistics, University of Piraeus, 80 M. Karaoli & A. Dimitriou Street, 18534 Piraeus, Greece)

Abstract

Incentivizing businesses to lower carbon emissions and trade back excess carbon allowances paved the way for rapid growth in carbon credit ETFs. The use of carbon allowances as a hedging alternative fueled this rally further, causing a shift to speculation and forming repetitive bubbles. Speculative bubbles are born from euphoria, yet, they are relatively predictable, provided their pattern matches the log periodic power law (LPPL) with specific stylized facts. A “Minsky moment” identifies a clear speculative bubble as a signal of financial system instability, while a “Social bubble” is regarded as relatively positive, increasing in the long run, infrastructure spending and development. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether various carbon credit bubbles during the pandemic period caused financial instability or had a positive impact (“Minsky” or “Social”). Particularly, we investigate the carbon credit bubble behavior in the ETF prices of KRBN, GRN (Global Carbon Credit tracking ETFs), and the SOLCARBT index during the COVID-19 pandemic period by adopting the log-periodic power law model (LPPL) methodology, which has been widely used, over the past decade, for detecting bubbles and crashes in various markets. In conclusion, these bubbles are social and propelled by the newfound interest in carbon credit trading, for obvious reasons.

Suggested Citation

  • Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Konstantinos Gravas, 2022. "Bubble in Carbon Credits during COVID-19: Financial Instability or Positive Impact (“Minsky” or “Social”)?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:367-:d:890697
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/8/367/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/8/367/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyman P. Minsky, 1977. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to“Standard” Theory," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 20-27, March.
    2. Yinpeng Zhang & Zhixin Liu & Xueying Yu, 2017. "The Diversification Benefits of Including Carbon Assets in Financial Portfolios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Vasiliou, Dimitrios & Magoutas, Anastasios & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Do hedge and merger arbitrage funds actually hedge? A time-varying volatility spillover approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Li, Chong, 2017. "Log-periodic view on critical dates of the Chinese stock market bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 305-311.
    5. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    6. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Dokas, Ioannis & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Value investing versus other investment strategies: A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Mathews, John A., 2008. "How carbon credits could drive the emergence of renewable energies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3633-3639, October.
    8. Axel Michaelowa & Igor Shishlov & Dario Brescia, 2019. "Evolution of international carbon markets: lessons for the Paris Agreement," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(6), November.
    9. Gisler, Monika & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan, 2011. "Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1412-1425.
    10. Leal, Patrícia Alexandra & Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2019. "Decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions: Decomposition analysis by sectoral factors for Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 12-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Georgios Pergeris, 2022. "Did cryptocurrencies exhibit log‐periodic power law signature during the second wave of COVID‐19?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(3), November.
    2. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Cross-Country Linkages and Asymmetries of Sovereign Risk Pluralistic Investigation of CDS Spreads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-10, October.
    3. Fayu Chen & Jinhao Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Hua Zhang, 2023. "Static and Dynamic Evaluation of Financing Efficiency in Enterprises’ Low-Carbon Supply Chain: PCA–DEA–Malmquist Model Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Eduard Mihai Manta & Razvan Gabriel Hapau & Mihaela Gruiescu & Oana Mihaela Vacaru (Boita), 2023. "Exploring the Contagion Effect from Developed to Emerging CEE Financial Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-50, January.
    2. Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    3. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    4. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
    6. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Deconstruction of the Green Bubble during COVID-19 International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
    8. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitris Kenourgios & Drosos Koutsokostas & Georgios Pergeris, 2023. "Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 198-211, May.
    9. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    10. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    11. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 385-431, July.
    12. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Nikita Ramchandani & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2021. "Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    15. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Wong, Jian Cheng & Lian, Heng & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2009. "Detecting macroeconomic phases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(21), pages 4635-4645.
    17. Seyoung Park & Eun Ryung Lee & Sungchul Lee & Geonwoo Kim, 2019. "Dantzig Type Optimization Method with Applications to Portfolio Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, June.
    18. Caiado, Nathália & Guarnieri, Patricia & Xavier, Lúcia Helena & de Lorena Diniz Chaves, Gisele, 2017. "A characterization of the Brazilian market of reverse logistic credits (RLC) and an analogy with the existing carbon credit market," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 47-59.
    19. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:367-:d:890697. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.