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Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models

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  • Tong Li

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a vn asymptotic normality or is superconsistent with a rate at n. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon is used to illustrate the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Tong Li, 2006. "Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:16/06
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    File URL: http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk/wps/cwp1606.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhipeng Liao & Xiaoxia Shi, 2020. "A nondegenerate Vuong test and post selection confidence intervals for semi/nonparametric models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 983-1017, July.
    2. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
    3. Brück, Florian & Fermanian, Jean-David & Min, Aleksey, 2023. "A corrected Clarke test for model selection and beyond," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 105-132.
    4. Xiaoxia Shi, 2015. "A nondegenerate Vuong test," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(1), pages 85-121, March.
    5. Francesco Bravo, 2022. "Misspecified semiparametric model selection with weakly dependent observations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 558-586, July.
    6. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Optimal Estimation Methodologies for Panel Data Regression Models," Papers 2311.03471, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lack-of-fit; Model selection tests; Non-nested models; Simulated mean squared error of predictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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