Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models
This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a vn asymptotic normality or is superconsistent with a rate at n. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon is used to illustrate the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gasmi, Farid & Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Vuong, Quang, 1992.
"Econometric Analysis of Collusive Behavior in a Soft Drink Market,"
IDEI Working Papers
16, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Gasmi, F & Laffont, J J & Vuong, Q, 1992. "Econometric Analysis of Collusive Behavior in a Soft-Drink Market," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 277-311, Summer.
- Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993.
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
- repec:att:wimass:9417 is not listed on IDEAS
- Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
- Li, Tong & Vuong, Quang, 1997. "Using all bids in parametric estimation of first-price auctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 321-325, September.
- Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Maskin, Eric S, 1990. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Insider Trading on the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 70-93, February.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:517-67 is not listed on IDEAS
- John G. Riley & William Samuelson, 1979.
UCLA Economics Working Papers
152, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong, 2004. "Likelihood Estimation and Inference in a Class of Nonregular Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1445-1480, 09.
- Donald, Stephen G. & Paarsch, Harry J., 1996. "Identification, Estimation, and Testing in Parametric Empirical Models of Auctions within the Independent Private Values Paradigm," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 517-567, August.
- Donald, Stephen G & Paarsch, Harry J, 1993. "Piecewise Pseudo-maximum Likelihood Estimation in Empirical Models of Auctions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 121-48, February.
- Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1997.
"Game theory and empirical economics: The case of auction data 1,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-35, January.
- Laffont, J.J., 1996. "Game Theory and Empirical Economics: The Case of Auction Data," Papers 95.394, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Weeks, M., 1999. "Non-nested Hypothesis Testing: An Overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Donald, Stephen G. & Paarsch, Harry J., 2002. "Superconsistent estimation and inference in structural econometric models using extreme order statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 305-340, August.
- Smith, Richard J, 1992. "Non-nested.Tests for Competing Models Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 973-80, July.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990.
"An encompassing approach to conditional mean tests with applications to testing nonnested hypotheses,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 331-350.
- Wooldridge, J.M, 1989. "An Encompassing Approach To Conditional Mean Tests With Applications To Testing Nonnested Hypotheses," Working papers 511, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2002.
"Asymptotic Efficiency in Parametric Structural Models with Parameter-Dependent Support,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1988, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2003. "Asymptotic Efficiency in Parametric Structural Models with Parameter-Dependent Support," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1307-1338, 09.
- Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995.
"Which Moments to Match,"
95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Tong Li, 2005. "Econometrics of first-price auctions with entry and binding reservation prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 173-200, May.
- Donald, S.G. & Paarsch, H.J., 1993. "Identification, Estimation, and Testing in Empirical Models of Auction Within the Independent Private Values Paradigm," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9319, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 1986. "Testing non-nested hypotheses," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 44, pages 2583-2637 Elsevier.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
- James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:16/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benita Rajania)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.