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Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?

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  • Kunze, Frederik
  • Wegener, Christoph
  • Bizer, Kilian
  • Spiwoks, Markus

Abstract

Interest rate forecasts are widely used in the international financial services industry. For decades, both practitioners and academic researchers question the quality and usefulness of forecasts. Survey predictions do not only deliver point forecasts but also allow to draw conclusions with regard to the variety of forecasts provided by professional analysts. We evaluate the quality of interest rate forecasts for the three months interbank rate in the UK (LIBOR) and Germany (EURIBOR) as well as the corresponding 10Y government bond yields using the root mean squared error as well as the Theil’s U measure and also apply models of time series analysis (i.e. cointegration and causality analysis). Finally, we check for possible implications from uncertainty measures (i.e. High-Low-Spread of forecasts as well as forecast errors) and structural breaks. We are able to find some links to the real economy. Applying our methodological approach both to the UK and Germany we are able to draw conclusions with regard to the quality of international forecasts in times of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:192-205
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2017.01.005
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    4. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2020. "Modelling the dynamics of unconventional monetary policies’ impact on professionals’ forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Jin-Kyu Jung & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2019. "On the consistency of central banks´ interest rate forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 701-716.
    7. Anton A. Gerunov, 2022. "Performance of 109 Machine Learning Algorithms across Five Forecasting Tasks: Employee Behavior Modeling, Online Communication, House Pricing, IT Support and Demand Planning," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 15-43.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial crisis; Survey forecasts; Interest rate forecasts; Forecast evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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