IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v71y2018icp1-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap forecasting method applied to the airline industry

Author

Listed:
  • Nieto, María Rosa
  • Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo

Abstract

•The ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap method is proposed to forecast pax in the air transport industry.•Pax is analyzed and represented by conditional mean, variance, and the distribution of the error.•The performance of the proposed method is compared to 4 of the most used forecasting methods in the air transport industry.•The performance of the ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap method is validated by using two tests of superior ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Nieto, María Rosa & Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo, 2018. "ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap forecasting method applied to the airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.05.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699717301072
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.05.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Hsu, Chaug-Ing & Wen, Yuh-Horng, 2000. "Application of Grey theory and multiobjective programming towards airline network design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 44-68, November.
    3. Santiago Gamba-Santamaria & Oscar Fernando Jaulin-Mendez & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Carlos Andrés Quicazán-Moreno, 2016. "Comparison of methods for estimating the uncertainty of value at risk," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 595-624, October.
    4. Matei, Marius, 2009. "Assessing Volatility Forecasting Models: Why GARCH Models Take the Lead," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 42-65, December.
    5. Hsu, Chaug-Ing & Wen, Yuh-Horng, 2003. "Determining flight frequencies on an airline network with demand-supply interactions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 417-441, November.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Moraux, Franck, 2011. "How valuable is your VaR? Large sample confidence intervals for normal VaR," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 189-200, March.
    8. Hang Chan, Ngai & Deng, Shi-Jie & Peng, Liang & Xia, Zhendong, 2007. "Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 556-576, April.
    9. J. D. Bermudez & J. V. Segura & E. Vercher, 2007. "Holt-Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1075-1090.
    10. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
    11. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    12. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941, July.
    13. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    14. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.
    15. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2016. "The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 120-127.
    16. Hsu, Chaug-Ing & Wen, Yuh-Horng, 2002. "Reliability evaluation for airline network design in response to fluctuation in passenger demand," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 197-213, June.
    17. Rob J. Hyndman & Andrey V. Kostenko, 2007. "Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 6, pages 12-15, Spring.
    18. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    19. Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez & María Rosa Nieto, 2017. "Comparison of bootstrap estimation intervals to forecast arithmetic mean and median air passenger demand," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 1211-1224, May.
    20. Grubb, Howard & Mason, Alexina, 2001. "Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-82.
    21. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    22. Samagaio, António & Wolters, Mark, 2010. "Comparative analysis of government forecasts for the Lisbon Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 213-217.
    23. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Bernardo Carmona Benitez & Maria Rosa Nieto, 2023. "A methodology for calculating the unmet passenger demand in the air transportation industry," Papers 23003, Working Papers of Business and Economics School. Anahuac University (Mexico)..
    2. Maria Rosa Nieto & Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez, 2021. "An Approach to Measure the Performance and the Efficiency of Future Airport Infrastructure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo & Nieto, María Rosa, 2020. "SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Shaban, I.A. & Wang, Z.X. & Chan, F.T.S. & Chung, S.H. & Eltoukhy, A.E.E. & Qu, T., 2019. "Price setting for extra-baggage service for a combination carrier using the newsvendor setup," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Seungju Nam & Sejong Choi & Georgia Edell & Amartya De & Woon-Kyung Song, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of the Aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Industry in Northeast Asian Countries: A Suggestion for the Development of Korea’s MRO Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Wang, Zhanwei & Song, Woon-Kyung, 2020. "Sustainable airport development with performance evaluation forecasts: A case study of 12 Asian airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Jin, Feng & Li, Yongwu & Sun, Shaolong & Li, Hongtao, 2020. "Forecasting air passenger demand with a new hybrid ensemble approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    4. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    5. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez & María Rosa Nieto, 2017. "Comparison of bootstrap estimation intervals to forecast arithmetic mean and median air passenger demand," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 1211-1224, May.
    7. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Christophe Hurlin & Sébastien Laurent & Rogier Quaedvlieg & Stephan Smeekes, 2017. "Risk Measure Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 499-512, October.
    10. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    11. Gunter, Ulrich & Zekan, Bozana, 2021. "Forecasting air passenger numbers with a GVAR model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. de Paula, R.O. & Silva, L.R. & Vilela, M.L. & Cruz, R.O.M., 2019. "Forecasting passenger movement for Brazilian airports network based on the segregation of primary and secondary demand applied to Brazilian civil aviation policies planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 23-29.
    13. Xiao, Yi & Liu, John J. & Hu, Yi & Wang, Yingfeng & Lai, Kin Keung & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-11.
    14. Birolini, Sebastian & Jacquillat, Alexandre & Cattaneo, Mattia & Antunes, António Pais, 2021. "Airline Network Planning: Mixed-integer non-convex optimization with demand–supply interactions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 100-124.
    15. Dhanya Jothimani & Ravi Shankar & Surendra S. Yadav, 2016. "Discrete Wavelet Transform-Based Prediction of Stock Index: A Study on National Stock Exchange Fifty Index," Papers 1605.07278, arXiv.org.
    16. Banerjee, Nilabhra & Morton, Alec & Akartunalı, Kerem, 2020. "Passenger demand forecasting in scheduled transportation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 797-810.
    17. Zhenni Ding & Huayou Chen & Ligang Zhou, 2023. "Using shapely values to define subgroups of forecasts for combining," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 905-923, July.
    18. Marius Lux & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann, 2020. "Data driven value-at-risk forecasting using a SVR-GARCH-KDE hybrid," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 947-981, September.
    19. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Effective energy commodity risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 234-250.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Darby, Julia, 2012. "Forecasting Volatility in Developing Countries' Nominal Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40875, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:1-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.