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Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models


  • Rob J. Hyndman
  • Andrey V. Kostenko


Authors Rob Hyndman and Andrey Kostenko discuss the bare minimum data requirements for fitting three common types of seasonal models: regression with seasonal dummies, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. Achieving the requisite minimum numbers, however, does not ensure adequate estimates of seasonality. The amount of additional data required depends on the amount of noise (random variation) in the data. Unfortunately, there are no simple rules about sample size, and the authors note that published tables on sample size requirements are overly simplified. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Rob J. Hyndman & Andrey V. Kostenko, 2007. "Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 6, pages 12-15, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:12-15

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    Cited by:

    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    2. repec:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1796-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jussim, Maxim, 2014. "Entwicklung eines Simulationstools zur Analyse von Prognose- und Dispositionsentscheidungen im Krankenhausbereich," Bayreuth Reports on Information Systems Management 57, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Information Systems Management.
    4. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251, April.
    5. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251.

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