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The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment

In: Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (University of Vienna)

  • Ernest Gnan

    (Austrian National Bank)

  • Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

    (Austrian National Bank)

No abstract is available for this item.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 22.
  • This item is provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Papers chapters with number 22-11.
    Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:22-11
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    1. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Frank Smets, 1997. "Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States," BIS Working Papers 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
    5. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    7. Kunst, Robert M., 2003. "Testing for Relative Predictive Accuracy: A Critical Viewpoint," Economics Series 130, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
    9. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
    10. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Gnan, Ernest & Ritzberger-Grunwald, Doris, 2004. "Using pre-EMU money market rates to assess monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1003-1014, December.
    11. Carstensen, Kai & Hawellek, J., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation from the Term Structure," Munich Reprints in Economics 19949, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
    13. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
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