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The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

  • Ernest Gnan
  • Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10290-005-0030-z
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 141 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 318-342

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:141:y:2005:i:2:p:318-342
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  1. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  5. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Carstensen, Kai, 2003. "Forecasting Inflation from the Term Structure," Munich Reprints in Economics 19945, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Kai Carstensen & Julia Hawellek, 2003. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 306-323, June.
  10. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Gnan, Ernest & Ritzberger-Grunwald, Doris, 2004. "Using pre-EMU money market rates to assess monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1003-1014, December.
  11. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
  13. Kunst, Robert M., 2003. "Testing for Relative Predictive Accuracy: A Critical Viewpoint," Economics Series 130, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  14. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  15. Carstensen, Kai & Hawellek, J., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation from the Term Structure," Munich Reprints in Economics 19949, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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