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Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia

  • Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri

This paper investigates the role of the term spread to predict domestic output and inflation in less developed financial market with the focus on Malaysia bond market. By controlling for past values of the dependent variable, this paper finds that the term spread of various bond maturities contain relevant information about future output and inflation at short horizons. Besides that, we employ a probit model to assess the ability for the yield curve to predict future economic slowdown. The results suggest that the term spread has contributed significantly in the probability of predicting future economic slowdown. Despite the under-developed bond market, the findings point to the potential for bond yields to play a greater role in monetary analysis beyond conventional indicators. From the policy point of views, the results from our analysis suggest that there is a significant potential for incorporating more technical and model based approaches using the yield curve beyond the usual indicator analysis.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29039/1/MPRA_paper_29039.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29039.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29039
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  1. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
  2. E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 517-525, September.
  3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  5. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
  7. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  8. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  11. Sharon Kozicki, 1997. "Predicting real growth and inflation with the yield spread," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 39-57.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  13. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "Interest Rate Spreads And The Prediction Of Real Economic Activity: The Case Of Singapore," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 36(3), pages 289-304, 09.
  16. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
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