Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 517-525, September.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990.
"The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
- Arnaud Mehl, 2009.
"The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 691, European Central Bank.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1990.
"On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads,"
New England Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Y. K. Tse, 1998. "Interest Rate Spreads And The Prediction Of Real Economic Activity: The Case Of Singapore," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 36(3), pages 289-304, September.
- Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
- Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
- Sharon Kozicki, 1997. "Predicting real growth and inflation with the yield spread," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 39-57.
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Fabian Lipinsky & Li Lian Ong, 2014. "Asia’s Stock Markets; Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?," IMF Working Papers 14/37, International Monetary Fund.
More about this item
KeywordsTerm spread; Forecasting; Monetary Policy; Malaysia;
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-03-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-03-05 (Monetary Economics)
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.