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Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks

Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding.

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File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2006/wp0616.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2006-16.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_16
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  1. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February.
  2. Jordan Shan & Alan Morris, 2002. "Does Financial Development 'Lead' Economic Growth?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 153-168.
  3. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  7. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Guha, Debashis & Hiris, Lorene, 2002. "The aggregate credit spread and the business cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. Maudos, Joaquin & Fernandez de Guevara, Juan, 2003. "Factors Explaining the Interest Margin in the Banking Sectors of the European Union," MPRA Paper 15252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Benedikt Braumann, 2004. "Tu Felix Austria: Evidence for a de-celerator in financial reform," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 53-72, 03.
  13. Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?," Working Papers 1997-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  15. Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997. "Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-14, Nov.-Dec..
  16. Chevalier, Judith A & Scharfstein, David S, 1995. "Liquidity Constraints and the Cyclical Behavior of Markups," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 390-96, May.
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