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Currency jumps, Euribor-OIS spreads and the volatility skew: A study on the dollar-euro crash risk of 2007–2015

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  • Wong, Alfred

Abstract

This paper examines the Euribor-OIS spread and volatility skew as future indicators of the euro jumps triggered by crash events during the European financial crises of 2007–2015. The overall result reveals that the Euribor-OIS spread is capable of generating statistically and economically significant predictions of euro jumps that occur during the crises. Volatility skew is also found to be informative about future jumps but the marginal effect of jump predictions is relatively small. Further, pre-crises jumps are not accurately predicted by either indicator, suggesting that adverse information flow over the sample period is transitory.

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  • Wong, Alfred, 2019. "Currency jumps, Euribor-OIS spreads and the volatility skew: A study on the dollar-euro crash risk of 2007–2015," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 7-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:29:y:2019:i:c:p:7-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euribor-OIS spreads; Volatility skew; Jumps in exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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