IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v64y2017icp128-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asset prices and economic fluctuations: The implications of stochastic volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Junping
  • Xiong, Xiong
  • Zhu, Jie
  • Zhu, Xiaoneng

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the multi-factor stochastic volatility of stock returns is related to economic fluctuations and affects asset prices. We address these issues in a dynamic Fama-French three-factor volatility model framework. Consistent with the ICAPM with stochastic volatility (Campbell et al., 2017), we find that the conditional volatility of the size and value factors is significantly related to economic uncertainty. These volatilities are also significant pricing factors. The out-of-sample forecasting analysis further reveals that the conditional volatility can predict stock returns and deliver economic gain in asset allocation. Our analysis sharpens the understanding on the link between the stock market and economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Junping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2017. "Asset prices and economic fluctuations: The implications of stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 128-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:128-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317301736
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    5. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
    6. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    7. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 245-269, June.
    10. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2013. "Uncertainty and the economy," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr.
    11. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    12. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 21-39.
    13. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    14. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    15. Xiaoneng Zhu, 2015. "Tug-of-War: Time-Varying Predictability of Stock Returns and Dividend Growth," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2317-2358.
    16. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2015. "The impact of financial crises on the risk–return tradeoff and the leverage effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 407-418.
    17. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2009. "Expected Returns and Volatility of Fama-French Factors," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    18. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    20. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    21. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Huh, Sahn-Wook & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2010. "Dynamic Factors and Asset Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 707-737, June.
    22. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    23. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    24. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Multi-factor volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 132-149.
    25. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    26. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    27. Jie Zhu, 2009. "Pricing volatility of stock returns with volatile and persistent components," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(3), pages 243-269, September.
    28. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. Kanas, Angelos, 2012. "Modelling the risk–return relation for the S&P 100: The role of VIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 795-809.
    31. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    32. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    33. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerson N. Cardoso & Geraldo E. Silva, 2024. "Electoral influences on the Brazilian B3 data correlation network," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 251-272, January.
    2. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2021. "Mixed-frequency SV model for stock volatility and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 462-472.
    3. Liow, Kim Hiang & Liao, Wen-Chi & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "Dynamics of international spillovers and interaction: Evidence from financial market stress and economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-116.
    4. Hao, Yu & Peng, Hui, 2017. "On the convergence in China's provincial per capita energy consumption: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-43.
    5. Wang, Nianling & Lou, Zhusheng, 2023. "Sequential Bayesian analysis for semiparametric stochastic volatility model with applications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    6. Feng, Chengxiao & Tan, Jie & Jiang, Zhenyu & Chen, Shuang, 2020. "A generalized European option pricing model with risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 21-39.
    2. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Multi-factor volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 132-149.
    3. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    4. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2017. "Firm size, economic risks, and the cross-section of international stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 110-126.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Fournier, Mathieu & Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Mehdi, 2021. "Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Coskewness and Cokurtosis Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 65-91, February.
    6. Chiang, I-Hsuan Ethan & Liao, Yin & Zhou, Qing, 2021. "Modeling the cross-section of stock returns using sensible models in a model pool," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 56-73.
    7. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    8. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    9. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
    10. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Working Papers unige:125031, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    12. Victoria Atanasov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    14. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Kathrin Tauscher & Martin Wallmeier, 2016. "Portfolio Overlapping Bias in Tests of the Fama–French Three†Factor Model," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 367-393, June.
    16. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Weidong Tian & Qing Zhou, 2017. "Asset Pricing Model Uncertainty: A Tradeoff between Bias and Variance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 289-324, June.
    18. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    19. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    20. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic fluctuations; Dynamic Fama-French factors; Stochastic volatility; International stock markets; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:128-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.