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Agrégats et politique monétaires dans la zone euro

  • Stéphane Guéné
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    [eng] Monetary Policy and Aggregates in the Euro Area . by Stéphane Guéné . The first pillar of the European Central Bank''s monetary strategy consists of a reference value for the medium-term growth rate of the M3 monetary aggregate (set at 4.5%). This paper examines whether the special importance given to monetary variables in the conduct of European monetary policy is warranted. Twoapproaches are used. Onthe one hand, we ask whether a stableM3demand function has been observed in the past. On the other, we study what information this aggregate contains for calculating short-to medium-term inflation using a P-Star model. [fre] Le premier pilier de la stratégie monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne est constitué notamment d’une valeur de référence pour le rythme de croissance de moyen terme de l’agrégat monétaire M3 (fixée à 4,5%). Cet article examine si cette importance toute particulière accordée aux variables monétaires dans la conduite de la politique monétaire européenne est justifiée. Pour cela, deux thèmes sont abordés. D’une part, nous avons cherché à savoir si un comportement stable de demande de M3 a pu être observé sur le passé. D’autre part, nous avons étudié le contenu en information de cet agrégat pour la détermination de l’inflation à court-moyen terme à partir d’une modélisation P-étoile.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 147 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 187-201

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_147_1_6221
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6221
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kareken, John H & Muench, Thomas & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Optimal Open Market Strategy: The Use of Information Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 156-72, March.
    3. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
    4. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    6. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    7. Andreas Beyer, 1998. "Modelling money demand in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 57-76.
    8. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
    10. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
    11. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
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