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An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Ping Jiang

    () (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

  • Zeng Wang

    () (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

  • Kequan Zhang

    () (Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Wendong Yang

    () (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

Abstract

Wind speed forecasting has an unsuperseded function in the high-efficiency operation of wind farms, and is significant in wind-related engineering studies. Back-propagation (BP) algorithms have been comprehensively employed to forecast time series that are nonlinear, irregular, and unstable. However, the single model usually overlooks the importance of data pre-processing and parameter optimization of the model, which results in weak forecasting performance. In this paper, a more precise and robust model that combines data pre-processing, BP neural network, and a modified artificial intelligence optimization algorithm was proposed, which succeeded in avoiding the limitations of the individual algorithm. The novel model not only improves the forecasting accuracy but also retains the advantages of the firefly algorithm (FA) and overcomes the disadvantage of the FA while optimizing in the later stage. To verify the forecasting performance of the presented hybrid model, 10-min wind speed data from Penglai city, Shandong province, China, were analyzed in this study. The simulations revealed that the proposed hybrid model significantly outperforms other single metaheuristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Jiang & Zeng Wang & Kequan Zhang & Wendong Yang, 2017. "An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-29, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:7:p:954-:d:104152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    back propagation (BP); forecasting accuracy; modified firefly algorithm; wind speed; singular spectrum analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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