IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v76y2015icp91-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Qin, Shanshan
  • Zhou, Qingping
  • Jiang, Haiyan

Abstract

Interest in renewable and clean energy sources is becoming significant due to both the global energy dependency and detrimental environmental effects of utilizing fossil fuels. Therefore, increased attention has been paid to wind energy, one of the most promising sources of green energy in the world. Wind speed forecasting is of increasing importance because wind speeds affect power grid operation scheduling, wind power generation and wind farm planning. Many studies have been conducted to improve wind speed prediction performance. However, less work has been performed to preprocess the outliers existing in the raw wind speed data to achieve accurate forecasting. In this paper, Support Vector Regression (SVR), a learning machine technique for detecting outliers, has been successfully combined with seasonal index adjustment (SIA) and Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) methods to construct the hybrid models named PMERNN and PAERNN. Then, this paper presents a medium-term wind speed forecasting performance analysis for three different sites in the Xinjiang region of China, utilizing daily wind speed data collected over a period of eight years. The experimental results suggest that the hybrid models forecast the daily wind velocities with a higher degree of accuracy over the prediction horizon compared to the other models.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:76:y:2015:i:c:p:91-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114007265
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2009. "Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México, using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 274-278.
    2. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    3. Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing & Erdem, Ergin, 2010. "Prediction of wind speed time series using modified Taylor Kriging method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4870-4879.
    4. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    5. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "A hybrid model for wind speed prediction using empirical mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 545-556.
    6. Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho & Ángel M. Pérez-Bellido, & Ortiz-García, Emilio G. & Portilla-Figueras, Antonio & Prieto, Luis & Paredes, Daniel, 2009. "Hybridizing the fifth generation mesoscale model with artificial neural networks for short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1451-1457.
    7. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Jing & Zhang, Wenyu & Wang, Jianzhou, 2011. "A corrected hybrid approach for wind speed prediction in Hexi Corridor of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1668-1679.
    8. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    9. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-Qi & Chen, Chao & Li, Yan-fei, 2010. "A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1857-1861.
    10. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio, 2011. "A new probabilistic method to estimate the long-term wind speed characteristics at a potential wind energy conversion site," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2671-2685.
    11. Kantz, Holger & Holstein, Detlef & Ragwitz, Mario & K. Vitanov, Nikolay, 2004. "Markov chain model for turbulent wind speed data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(1), pages 315-321.
    12. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    13. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    14. Ackermann, Thomas & Söder, Lennart, 2000. "Wind energy technology and current status: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 315-374, December.
    15. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Elhadidy, M.A. & Shaahid, S.M., 2009. "Modeling and forecasting the mean hourly wind speed time series using GMDH-based abductive networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1686-1699.
    16. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    17. Blonbou, Ruddy, 2011. "Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1118-1124.
    18. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    19. Wu, Jie & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong, 2013. "Wind energy potential assessment for the site of Inner Mongolia in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 215-228.
    20. Mohandes, M.A. & Halawani, T.O. & Rehman, S. & Hussain, Ahmed A., 2004. "Support vector machines for wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 939-947.
    21. Sanchez, Ismael, 2006. "Short-term prediction of wind energy production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-56.
    22. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    23. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    24. Carro-Calvo, L. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Kirchner-Bossi, N. & Portilla-Figueras, A. & Prieto, L. & Garcia-Herrera, R. & Hernández-Martín, E., 2011. "Extraction of synoptic pressure patterns for long-term wind speed estimation in wind farms using evolutionary computing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1571-1581.
    25. Shamshad, A. & Bawadi, M.A. & Wan Hussin, W.M.A. & Majid, T.A. & Sanusi, S.A.M., 2005. "First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-708.
    26. Zhao, Pan & Wang, Jiangfeng & Xia, Junrong & Dai, Yiping & Sheng, Yingxin & Yue, Jie, 2012. "Performance evaluation and accuracy enhancement of a day-ahead wind power forecasting system in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 234-241.
    27. Haque, Ashraf U. & Mandal, Paras & Kaye, Mary E. & Meng, Julian & Chang, Liuchen & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2012. "A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4563-4573.
    28. Riahy, G.H. & Abedi, M., 2008. "Short term wind speed forecasting for wind turbine applications using linear prediction method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 35-41.
    29. Carolin Mabel, M. & Fernandez, E., 2008. "Analysis of wind power generation and prediction using ANN: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 986-992.
    30. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2007. "Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2116-2128.
    31. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing & Zhou, Junyi, 2011. "Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 352-359.
    32. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    2. Yuyang Gao & Chao Qu & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-28, September.
    3. repec:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1434-1446 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:321-:d:129905 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Feiyu Zhang & Yuqi Dong & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Novel Combined Model Based on an Artificial Intelligence Algorithm—A Case Study on Wind Speed Forecasting in Penglai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
    6. repec:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:492-512 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:appene:v:197:y:2017:i:c:p:151-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:7:p:954-:d:104152 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    10. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    11. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hongqi & Liang, Xifeng & Li, Yanfei, 2015. "New wind speed forecasting approaches using fast ensemble empirical model decomposition, genetic algorithm, Mind Evolutionary Algorithm and Artificial Neural Networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1066-1075.
    12. Zhilong Wang & Chen Wang & Jie Wu, 2016. "Wind Energy Potential Assessment and Forecasting Research Based on the Data Pre-Processing Technique and Swarm Intelligent Optimization Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Zuluaga, Carlos D. & Álvarez, Mauricio A. & Giraldo, Eduardo, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction based on robust Kalman filtering: An experimental comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 321-330.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:76:y:2015:i:c:p:91-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.