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Short term wind speed forecasting for wind turbine applications using linear prediction method


  • Riahy, G.H.
  • Abedi, M.


In this paper a new method, based on linear prediction, is proposed for wind speed forecasting. The method utilizes the ‘linear prediction’ method in conjunction with ‘filtering’ of the wind speed waveform. The filtering eliminates the undesired parts of the frequency spectrum (i.e. smoothing) of the measured wind speed which is less effective in an application, for example, in a wind energy conversion system. The linear prediction method is intuitively explained with some easy to follow case studies to clarify the complex underlying mathematics. For verification purposes, the proposed method is compared with real wind speed data based on experimental results. The results show the effectiveness of the linear prediction method.

Suggested Citation

  • Riahy, G.H. & Abedi, M., 2008. "Short term wind speed forecasting for wind turbine applications using linear prediction method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 35-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:33:y:2008:i:1:p:35-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2007.01.014

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mohandes, Mohamed A. & Rehman, Shafiqur & Halawani, Talal O., 1998. "A neural networks approach for wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 345-354.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kusiak, Andrew & Zhang, Zijun & Verma, Anoop, 2013. "Prediction, operations, and condition monitoring in wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    3. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "A hybrid model for wind speed prediction using empirical mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 545-556.
    4. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    5. Kusiak, Andrew & Li, Wenyan & Song, Zhe, 2010. "Dynamic control of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 456-463.
    6. Cadenas, E. & Jaramillo, O.A. & Rivera, W., 2010. "Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 925-930.
    7. Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Pastor-Sánchez, A. & Del Ser, J. & Prieto, L. & Geem, Z.W., 2015. "A Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm with Harmony Search operators for accurate wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 93-101.
    8. Fadare, D.A., 2010. "The application of artificial neural networks to mapping of wind speed profile for energy application in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 934-942, March.
    9. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Narayana, M. & Putrus, G.A. & Jovanovic, M. & Leung, P.S. & McDonald, S., 2012. "Generic maximum power point tracking controller for small-scale wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-79.
    11. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    12. Liu, Jinfu & Ren, Guorui & Wan, Jie & Guo, Yufeng & Yu, Daren, 2016. "Variogram time-series analysis of wind speed," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 483-491.
    13. Ouammi, Ahmed & Zejli, Driss & Dagdougui, Hanane & Benchrifa, Rachid, 2012. "Artificial neural network analysis of Moroccan solar potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4876-4889.
    14. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    15. Qian Zhang & Kin Keung Lai & Dongxiao Niu & Qiang Wang & Xuebin Zhang, 2012. "A Fuzzy Group Forecasting Model Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) for Short-Term Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(9), pages 1-18, September.
    16. Dong, Qingli & Sun, Yuhuan & Li, Peizhi, 2017. "A novel forecasting model based on a hybrid processing strategy and an optimized local linear fuzzy neural network to make wind power forecasting: A case study of wind farms in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 241-257.
    17. Akçay, Hüseyin & Filik, Tansu, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting by spectral analysis from long-term observations with missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 653-662.
    18. Shi, Jing & Guo, Jinmei & Zheng, Songtao, 2012. "Evaluation of hybrid forecasting approaches for wind speed and power generation time series," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3471-3480.
    19. repec:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:3:p:168:d:65196 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chang, G.W. & Lu, H.J. & Chang, Y.R. & Lee, Y.D., 2017. "An improved neural network-based approach for short-term wind speed and power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 301-311.
    21. repec:eee:appene:v:198:y:2017:i:c:p:203-222 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. De Giorgi, Maria Grazia & Ficarella, Antonio & Tarantino, Marco, 2011. "Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1298-1311, April.
    23. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    24. Yu, Jie & Chen, Kuilin & Mori, Junichi & Rashid, Mudassir M., 2013. "A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 673-686.
    25. Bouzgou, Hassen & Benoudjit, Nabil, 2011. "Multiple architecture system for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2463-2471, July.


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