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A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China


  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Xiong, Shenghua


Wind energy is regarded as a worldwide renewable and alternative energy that can relieve the energy shortage, reduce environmental pollution, and provide a significant potential economic benefit. In this paper, a hybrid method is developed to properly and efficiently forecast the daily wind speed in Hainan Province, China. The proposed hybrid forecasting model consists of outlier detection and a bivariate fuzzy time series, which provides a more powerful forecasting capacity of daily wind speed than that of traditional single forecasting models. To verify the developed approach, daily wind speed data from January 2008 to December 2012 in Hainan Province, China, are used for model construction and testing. The results show that the developed hybrid forecasting model achieves high forecasting accuracy and is suitable for forecasting the wind energy of China's large wind farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:526-541
    DOI: 10.1016/

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:7:d:61216 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Onar, Sezi Cevik & Oztaysi, Basar & Otay, İrem & Kahraman, Cengiz, 2015. "Multi-expert wind energy technology selection using interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 274-285.
    3. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:9:p:1422-:d:112222 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Song, Dongran & Yang, Jian & Cai, Zili & Dong, Mi & Su, Mei & Wang, Yinghua, 2017. "Wind estimation with a non-standard extended Kalman filter and its application on maximum power extraction for variable speed wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 670-685.
    5. repec:eee:appene:v:197:y:2017:i:c:p:151-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Erdong Zhao & Jing Zhao & Liwei Liu & Zhongyue Su & Ning An, 2015. "Hybrid Wind Speed Prediction Based on a Self-Adaptive ARIMAX Model with an Exogenous WRF Simulation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Hur, J. & Baldick, R., 2016. "A new merit function to accommodate high wind power penetration of WGRs (wind generating resources)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 34-40.
    8. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
    9. Zuluaga, Carlos D. & Álvarez, Mauricio A. & Giraldo, Eduardo, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction based on robust Kalman filtering: An experimental comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 321-330.


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