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Performance analysis of four modified approaches for wind speed forecasting

Author

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  • Zhang, Wenyu
  • Wu, Jie
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhao, Weigang
  • Shen, Lin

Abstract

Providing accurate wind speed prediction algorithms has become increasingly significant because of the important technological and economic impacts of wind speed on wind power generation. In this study, two combined strategies for wind speed forecasting are proposed and followed. Four approaches derived from these strategies are employed. The first two approaches employ Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to optimize the parameters in the first-order and second-order adaptive coefficient (FAC and SAC) methods. The remaining two approaches employ the decomposition of wind speed data into seasonal and trend components. The seasonal component is represented by the seasonal exponential adjustment, and the trend component is predicted by the hybrid models of PSO and FAC or SAC. By employing these four approaches, the daily mean wind speed is forecasted for four observation sites in Gansu, China. Multiple evaluation methods are used to assess forecasting quality: the mean square error, the mean absolute percentage error and the relative error. It is found that all four approaches better predict wind speed than the original FAC and SAC models.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wenyu & Wu, Jie & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Shen, Lin, 2012. "Performance analysis of four modified approaches for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 324-333.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:99:y:2012:i:c:p:324-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.05.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    2. Ru Hou & Yi Yang & Qingcong Yuan & Yanhua Chen, 2019. "Research and Application of Hybrid Wind-Energy Forecasting Models Based on Cuckoo Search Optimization," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    4. Tascikaraoglu, Akin & Sanandaji, Borhan M. & Poolla, Kameshwar & Varaiya, Pravin, 2016. "Exploiting sparsity of interconnections in spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using Wavelet Transform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 735-747.
    5. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    6. Shen, Zhiwei & Ritter, Matthias, 2016. "Forecasting volatility of wind power production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 295-308.
    7. repec:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:2:p:109:d:63927 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Akçay, Hüseyin & Filik, Tansu, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting by spectral analysis from long-term observations with missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 653-662.
    9. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    10. He, Qingqing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A hybrid system for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 756-771.
    11. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    12. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    13. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
    14. Sun, Peng & Li, Jian & Wang, Caisheng & Lei, Xiao, 2016. "A generalized model for wind turbine anomaly identification based on SCADA data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 550-567.
    15. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    16. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    17. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2019. "A Review on Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, January.
    18. Wang, Qin & Wu, Hongyu & Florita, Anthony R. & Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2016. "The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 696-713.
    19. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    20. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.

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