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Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization

Listed author(s):
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhu, Suling
  • Zhang, Wenyu
  • Lu, Haiyan
Registered author(s):

    Electric load forecasting is crucial for managing electric power systems economically and safely. This paper presents a new combined model for electric load forecasting based on the seasonal ARIMA forecasting model, the seasonal exponential smoothing model and the weighted support vector machines. The combined model can effectively count for the seasonality and nonlinearity shown in the electric load data and give more accurate forecasting results. The adaptive particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the combined forecasting model. The proposed combined model has been compared with the individual models and the other combined model reported in the literature and its results are promising.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544209005350
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 1671-1678

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:4:p:1671-1678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.015
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy

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    8. Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B. & Ord, J. Keith, 2002. "Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-18.
    9. Dhahri, Issam & Chabchoub, Habib, 2007. "Nonlinear goal programming models quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chain based on ARIMA parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1800-1810, March.
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