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Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhu, Suling
  • Zhang, Wenyu
  • Lu, Haiyan

Abstract

Electric load forecasting is crucial for managing electric power systems economically and safely. This paper presents a new combined model for electric load forecasting based on the seasonal ARIMA forecasting model, the seasonal exponential smoothing model and the weighted support vector machines. The combined model can effectively count for the seasonality and nonlinearity shown in the electric load data and give more accurate forecasting results. The adaptive particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the combined forecasting model. The proposed combined model has been compared with the individual models and the other combined model reported in the literature and its results are promising.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Zhu, Suling & Zhang, Wenyu & Lu, Haiyan, 2010. "Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1671-1678.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:4:p:1671-1678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ko, Chia-Nan & Lee, Cheng-Ming, 2013. "Short-term load forecasting using SVR (support vector regression)-based radial basis function neural network with dual extended Kalman filter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 413-422.
    2. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Noghrehabadi, A.R. & Ghanbarzadeh, A., 2011. "New sunshine-based models for predicting global solar radiation using PSO (particle swarm optimization) technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3036-3049.
    3. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1057-1074.
    4. Niknam, Taher & Mojarrad, Hasan Doagou & Meymand, Hamed Zeinoddini & Firouzi, Bahman Bahmani, 2011. "A new honey bee mating optimization algorithm for non-smooth economic dispatch," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 896-908.
    5. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    6. Zhu, Suling & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jujie, 2011. "A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3807-3815.
    7. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.
    8. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    9. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Zhou, Kaile & Fu, Chao & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Big data driven smart energy management: From big data to big insights," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-225.
    11. Wen-Yeau Chang, 2013. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(9), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2014. "Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-91.
    13. repec:eee:energy:v:140:y:2017:i:p1:p:988-1004 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
    15. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:7:p:954-:d:104152 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jeong, Kwangbok & Koo, Choongwan & Hong, Taehoon, 2014. "An estimation model for determining the annual energy cost budget in educational facilities using SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) and ANN (artificial neural network)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 71-79.
    17. Deihimi, Ali & Orang, Omid & Showkati, Hemen, 2013. "Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 382-401.
    18. Weide Li & Xuan Yang & Hao Li & Lili Su, 2017. "Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    20. Deihimi, Ali & Showkati, Hemen, 2012. "Application of echo state networks in short-term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 327-340.
    21. Chen, Yizhong & He, Li & Li, Jing & Cheng, Xi & Lu, Hongwei, 2016. "An inexact bi-level simulation–optimization model for conjunctive regional renewable energy planning and air pollution control for electric power generation systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 969-983.
    22. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
    23. Miloš Božić & Miloš Stojanović & Zoran Stajić & Dragan Tasić, 2013. "A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, April.
    24. Che, Jinxing & Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Guangfu, 2012. "An adaptive fuzzy combination model based on self-organizing map and support vector regression for electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 657-664.
    25. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:10:p:1547-:d:114315 is not listed on IDEAS

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