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Real estate valuation according to standardized methods: An empirical analysis

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  • Schulz, Rainer

Abstract

Appraisals are needed for decision-making and for performance evaluation. Knowledge on the accuracy of valuation methods is of general interest for banks and investors. We assess the accuracy of the German Regulation on Valuation with monthly data on appraisals and prices for commercial apartment houses in Berlin, Germany from 1980 to 2000. The appraisals are compared with outcomes of the simpler capitalization method and are ranked better according to several prediction error measures. Nonparametric density estimates give the error distributions and investors can decide which method is preferable. Eventually, we explain short-run deviations between prices and appraisals by incompletely appraised object-specific factors and by market indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz, Rainer, 2002. "Real estate valuation according to standardized methods: An empirical analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,55, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 1997. "Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-307, May.
    2. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1997. "Time Series and Dynamic Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521423083, March.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. J. Hirshleifer, 1958. "On the Theory of Optimal Investment Decision," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 329-329.
    5. Shiller, Robert J & Weiss, Allan N, 1999. "Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 147-161, March.
    6. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    7. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. " The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-1093, September.
    8. Mark G. Dotzour, 1988. "Quantifying Estimation Bias in Residential Appraisal," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 3(3), pages 1-11.
    9. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2002. "A simple state space model of house prices," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,39, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    10. Chinloy, Peter & Cho, Man & Megbolugbe, Isaac F, 1997. "Appraisals, Transaction Incentives, and Smoothing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 89-111, Jan.-Marc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Appraisal Accuracy; Discounted Value; House Prices; State Space Model;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)

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