Real estate valuation according to standardized methods: An empirical analysis
Appraisals are needed for decision-making and for performance evaluation. Knowledge on the accuracy of valuation methods is of general interest for banks and investors. We assess the accuracy of the German Regulation on Valuation with monthly data on appraisals and prices for commercial apartment houses in Berlin, Germany from 1980 to 2000. The appraisals are compared with outcomes of the simpler capitalization method and are ranked better according to several prediction error measures. Nonparametric density estimates give the error distributions and investors can decide which method is preferable. Eventually, we explain short-run deviations between prices and appraisals by incompletely appraised object-specific factors and by market indicators.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995.
" The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-93, September.
- Steven N. Kaplan & Richard S. Ruback, 1994. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998.
"Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2,"
1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
- Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Chinloy, Peter & Cho, Man & Megbolugbe, Isaac F, 1997. "Appraisals, Transaction Incentives, and Smoothing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 89-111, Jan.-Marc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Shiller, R.J. & Weiss, A.N., 1999.
"Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems,"
983r, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Mark G. Dotzour, 1988. "Quantifying Estimation Bias in Residential Appraisal," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 3(3), pages 1-11.
- Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1997.
"Time Series and Dynamic Models,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521423083, 1.
- Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 1997. "Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-307, May.
- J. Hirshleifer, 1958. "On the Theory of Optimal Investment Decision," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 329.
- Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2002. "A simple state space model of house prices," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,39, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.