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Evaluating the impact of market reforms on Value-at-Risk forecasts of Chinese A and B shares

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  • da Veiga, Bernardo
  • Chan, Felix
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

This paper analyses the time-varying conditional correlations between Chinese A and B share returns using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R.F. (2002), "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339-350.]. The results show that the conditional correlations increased substantially following the B share market reform, whereby Chinese investors were permitted to purchase B shares. However, this increase in correlations was found to have begun well before the B share market reform. This result has significant implication relating to the structure of the information flow between the markets for the two classes of shares. Value-at-Risk (VaR) threshold forecasts are used to analyse the importance of accommodating dynamic conditional correlations between Chinese A and B shares, and thus reflects the impact of the changes in information flow on the risk evaluation of a diversified portfolio. The competing VaR forecasts are analysed using the Unconditional Coverage, Serial Independence and Conditional Coverage tests of Christoffersen [Christoffersen (1998), "Evaluating Interval Forecasts", International Economic Review, 39, 841-862], and the Time Until First Failure Test of Kupiec [Kupiec, P.H., (1995), "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurements Models", Journal of Derivatives, 73-84]. The results offer mild support for the DCC model over its constant conditional correlation counterpart.

Suggested Citation

  • da Veiga, Bernardo & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Evaluating the impact of market reforms on Value-at-Risk forecasts of Chinese A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 453-475, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:453-475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Su, Dongwei & Fleisher, Belton M., 1999. "Why does return volatility differ in Chinese stock markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 557-586, December.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Hongbo & Chen, Shou & Yao, Shujie & Ou, Jinghua, 2014. "Financial liberalisation and international market interdependence: Evidence from China’s stock market in the post-WTO accession period," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 434-444.
    2. Bernardo da Veiga & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-683, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Christos Agiakloglou & Charalampos Agiropoulos, 2011. "The sensitivity of Value-at-Risk estimates using Monte Carlo approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 61(1-2), pages 7-12, January -.

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