IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v16y2017i1p1-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intraday Periodicity and Volatility Forecasting: Evidence from Indian Crude Oil Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • B.B. Chakrabarti
  • Vivek Rajvanshi

Abstract

We estimate intraday periodicities in return volatility by implementing two time series procedures—flexible Fourier form and cubic spline. We use intraday data for more than five years for crude oil futures contracts traded at the Multi Commodity Exchange India Limited. Filtration of the intraday periodicities from the raw returns reveals long-run dependence in volatility. We observe the presence of recurring and consistent intraday patterns in return volatility. Further, we find that adjustment for the intraday periodicity in return volatility improves forecasting performance. Our results are robust after controlling for the scheduled macroeconomic announcements. JEL Classification: C14, C22, G10

Suggested Citation

  • B.B. Chakrabarti & Vivek Rajvanshi, 2017. "Intraday Periodicity and Volatility Forecasting: Evidence from Indian Crude Oil Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:16:y:2017:i:1:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.1177/0972652716686207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972652716686207
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972652716686207?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Intraday periodicity, calendar and announcement effects in Euro exchange rate volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 82-101, January.
    4. Pierre Giot, 2005. "Market risk models for intraday data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 309-324.
    5. A. Abhyankar & D. Ghosh & E. Levin & R.J. Limmack, 1997. "Bid‐ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra‐day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362, April.
    6. Wood, Robert A & McInish, Thomas H & Ord, J Keith, 1985. "An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 723-739, July.
    7. Haniff, Mohd Nizal & Pok, Wee Ching, 2010. "Intraday volatility and periodicity in the Malaysian stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 329-343, September.
    8. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
    10. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    12. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2010. "International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 552-568, December.
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    14. Charlie X. Cai & Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey, 2004. "Intra Day Bid‐Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Recent Empirical Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 647-676, June.
    15. Taylor, Nicholas, 2004. "Trading intensity, volatility, and arbitrage activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1137-1162, May.
    16. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2004. "Intra-day periodicity, temporal aggregation and time-to-maturity in FTSE-100 index futures volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 253-263.
    17. Nicholas Taylor, 2004. "Modeling discontinuous periodic conditional volatility: Evidence from the commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 805-834, September.
    18. Peter D. Ekman, 1992. "Intraday patterns in the S&P 500 index futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 365-381, August.
    19. Robert T. Daigler, 1997. "Intraday futures volatility and theories of market behavior," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 45-74, February.
    20. Charlie X. Cai & Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey, 2004. "Intra Day Bid‐Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Recent Empirical Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 647-676, June.
    21. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Cai, Jun, 2000. "Intraday and interday volatility in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-130, June.
    22. Martin Martens & Yuan‐Chen Chang & Stephen J. Taylor, 2002. "A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 283-299, June.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. "Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-1443, September.
    24. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
    25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Intraday periodicity, calendar and announcement effects in Euro exchange rate volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 82-101, January.
    2. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Ajay Pandey, 2013. "Expiration‐Day Effects and the Impact of Short Trading Breaks on Intraday Volatility: Evidence from the Indian Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 1046-1070, November.
    3. Chu, Carlin C.F. & Lam, K.P., 2011. "Modeling intraday volatility: A new consideration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 388-418, July.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    5. Gau, Yin-Feng, 2005. "Intraday volatility in the Taipei FX market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 471-487, September.
    6. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    7. Haniff, Mohd Nizal & Pok, Wee Ching, 2010. "Intraday volatility and periodicity in the Malaysian stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 329-343, September.
    8. Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar & Pandey, Ajay, 2012. "Whether Cross-Listing, Stock-specific and Market-wide Calendar Events impact Intraday Volatility Dynamics? Evidence from the Indian Stock Market using High-frequency Data," IIMA Working Papers WP2012-11-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    9. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Heterogeneous information flows and intra-day volatility dynamics: evidence from the UK FTSE-100 stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 959-972.
    10. Jonathan Batten & Brian Lucey & Frank McGroarty & Maurice Peat & Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "Stylized facts of intraday precious metals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    13. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    14. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Bertrand Candelon & Sébastien Laurent, 2016. "Do We Need High Frequency Data to Forecast Variances?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 135-174.
    15. Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique, 2007. "The stationary seasonal hyperbolic asymmetric power ARCH model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(11), pages 1158-1164, June.
    17. Min Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Wei‐Chong Choo, 2021. "An empirical study on the role of trading volume and data frequency in volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 792-816, August.
    18. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    19. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
    20. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: Intra-day versus inter-day models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 449-465, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cubic spline; FFF; crude oil futures; high frequency; volatility forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:16:y:2017:i:1:p:1-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.