Intraday volatility and periodicity in the Malaysian stock returns
Many empirical studies using high-frequency intraday data from a variety of markets indicate that PGARCH models give superior return volatility forecasts than those produced from standard GARCH models. This paper investigates into modelling approaches of four versions of PGARCH models of high-frequency data of Bursa Malaysia, in particular where the intraday volatility of double U-shaped pattern. It is examined through half-hourly dummy variables, quarterly-hourly dummy variables, Fourier Functional Form (FFF) based variables and spline-based variables. The non-periodic GARCH models, i.e., GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH are used for comparison of performance of best fit. The analysis show that among the four versions of PGARCH models, the half-dummy and the spline-based versions perform the best. EGARCH produced consistently superior results to other GARCH specifications.
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