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Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models


  • Bas Aarle
  • Michael Boss
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova


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Suggested Citation

  • Bas Aarle & Michael Boss & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2000. "Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 232-258, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:136:y:2000:i:2:p:232-258
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02707687

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    2. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    5. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    6. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1998-02, CEPII research center.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Norbert Funke & Mike Kennedy, 1997. "International Implications of European Economic and Monetary Union," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 174, OECD Publishing.
    11. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 27-42, 04.
      • Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2002(CESIFOFOR), pages 27-42, 04.
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen, 2000. "Euroland: Peak of the upswing – Little evidence of a new economy," Kiel Discussion Papers 369, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
    5. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
    6. Gottschalk, Jan & Döpke, Jörg & Kamps, Christophe, 2001. "Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?," Kiel Working Papers 1050, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen, 2000. "Euroland: Konjunktur überschreitet Höhepunkt: wenig Anzeichen für eine New Economy," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2501, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Grömling, Michael, 2000. "Hintergründe der Euro-Abwertung," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research, vol. 27(3), pages 5-19.
    9. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.

    More about this item


    E40; F30; G15;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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