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Citations for "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle"

by Hamilton, James D

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  1. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Pelletier, Denis, 2012. "A New Approach to Investigate Market Integration: a Markov-Switching Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124825, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  3. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Brümmer, Bernhard & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Ferto, Imre, 2008. "Wheat market integration between Hungary and Germany," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44171, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Londono, Juan M. & Regúlez, Marta & Vázquez, Jesús, 2015. "An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 291-307.
  5. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
  6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. T. -W. Ho, 2003. "Regime-switching properties of the optimal seigniorage hypothesis: the case of Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 485-494.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Corruption, temptation and guilt: moral character in economic theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9419, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
  11. repec:hal:journl:hal-01159200 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Hui, Yongchang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Bai, Zhidong & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2016. "A New Nonlinearity Test to Circumvent the Limitation of Volterra Expansion with Applications," MPRA Paper 75216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
  14. David Bock & Eva Andersson & Marianne Frisén, 2005. "Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 465-490.
  15. repec:gam:jrisks:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:9:d:66628 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Walid Chkili & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Working Papers 2014-388, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  18. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
  20. Layton, Allan P., 1998. "A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business cycle phase shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-70, March.
  21. Gao, Huan & Mamon, Rogemar & Liu, Xiaoming & Tenyakov, Anton, 2015. "Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-120.
  22. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.
  23. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
  24. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Comparison of Alternative Asymptotic Frameworks to Analyze a Structural Change in a Linear Time Trend," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  25. Fangxiong Gong, 1995. "Regime-switching monetary policy and real business cycle fluctuations," Research Paper 9528, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
  27. Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Maik Wolters, 2012. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Kiel Working Papers 1815, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  28. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2001. "New economy-new policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 57-66.
  29. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Exchange Market Intervention and Evidence of Post-Crisis Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected East Asian Economies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-01, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  30. Rotta, Pedro Nielsen & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2013. "Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching," Textos para discussão 340, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  31. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets," NBER Working Papers 16532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Michael T. Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2003. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Working Papers 2001-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. Farzad Fard & Tak Siu, 2013. "Pricing and managing risks of European-style options in a Markovian regime-switching binomial model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 421-438, August.
  34. Alessandro Rossi & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2002. "Volatility Estimation via Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2002_14, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  35. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  36. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Monika Kosko & Michal Pietrzak, 2008. "Modeling Financial Time Series Volatility with Markov Switching Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 155-162.
  38. Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July.
  39. Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin Lumsdaine, 1996. "Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility," Home Pages _005, Princeton University, Department of Economics.
  40. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
  41. Silvia Haan-Rietdijk & John M. Gottman & Cindy S. Bergeman & Ellen L. Hamaker, 2016. "Get Over It! A Multilevel Threshold Autoregressive Model for State-Dependent Affect Regulation," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 217-241, March.
  42. Djuric, Ivan & Gotz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Global commodity price peaks and governmental interventions: The case of the wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia – Did consumers really benefit?," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 133023, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  43. Huntley Schaller & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Fads or Bubbles?," Staff Working Papers 97-2, Bank of Canada.
  44. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  45. Beine, Michel, 2003. "Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-80, March.
  46. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  47. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2016. "Deepening Contractions and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Vasyl Golosnoy & Jens Hogrefe, 2009. "Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points," Kiel Working Papers 1528, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  49. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2014. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Paper Series WP-2014-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 01 Jan 2014.
  50. Sergei Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation in Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers and Endogenous Clustering," Working Papers 1369, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  51. Cheung, C. Sherman & Miu, Peter, 2010. "Diversification benefits of commodity futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 451-474, December.
  52. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
  53. David E Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J Powell & Abhay K Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," KIER Working Papers 866, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  54. Bruce Q. Budd, 2016. "Structural break tests and the Greek sovereign debt crisis: revisited," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 607-622, July.
  55. Rómulo Chumacero & Jorge Quiroz, 1996. "La Tasa Natural de Crecimiento de la Economía Chilena: 1985-1996," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(100), pages 453-472.
  56. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/13, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  57. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2008. "Financial liberalization and changes in the dynamic behaviour of emerging market volatility: Evidence from four Latin American equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 362-377, September.
  58. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
  59. Gupta, Priyanshi & Sehgal, Sanjay & Deisting, Florent, 2015. "Time-Varying Bond Market Integration in EMU," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 30(4), pages 708-760.
  60. Haldrup; Niels & Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  61. Djuric, Ivan & Gotz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2011. "Effekte der Staalichen Marktintervention auf den Weizenmarkt in Serbien während der Nahrungsmittelkrise in 2007/2008," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114485, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  62. Beatrice Pataracchia, 2008. "The Spectral Representation of Markov-Switching Arma Models," Department of Economics University of Siena 528, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  63. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, "undated". "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  64. Siddhartha Chib & Michael J. Dueker, 2004. "Non-Markovian regime switching with endogenous states and time-varying state strengths," Working Papers 2004-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  65. D R Osborn & P J Perez & M Sensier, 2005. "Business Cycle Linkages for the G7 Countries:Does the US Lead the World?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 50, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  66. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2001. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 571, CESifo Group Munich.
  67. BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, "undated". "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  68. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2004. "A flexible prior distribution for Markov switching autoregressions with Student-t errors," DQE Working Papers 2, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 12 Nov 2011.
  70. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
  71. Mark J.Holmes, 2006. "Regime-Dependent output convergence in Latin America," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 65-81, June.
  72. Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2009. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series With Locally Adaptive Signal Extraction," Working Paper Series 234, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  73. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities," Working Papers 1304, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  74. Dennis L. Gärtner & Daniel Halbheer, 2008. "Are There Waves in Merger Activity After All?," Working Papers 0092, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
  75. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
  76. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.
  77. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
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  79. Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
  80. Bruno Giancarlo & Edoardo Otranto, 2004. "Dating the Italian BUsiness Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," ISAE Working Papers 41, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  81. Ãzge ÃeÅmeci & A. Ãzlem Ãnder, 2008. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(5), pages 54-67, September.
  82. Koopman, Siem Jan & Franses, Philip Hans, 2002. " Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time-Varying Confidence Intervals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 509-526, December.
  83. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
  84. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The European Unemployment Gap and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1346-1358.
  85. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 24-24, December.
  86. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
  87. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
  88. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2015. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: a MS-DFM approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  89. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland Shami, 2003. "Association between Markov regime-switching market volatility and beta risk: Evidence from Dow Jones industrial securities," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  90. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 2013-05, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  91. Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2014. "Output gap and non-linear economic convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
  92. Vitor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  93. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
  94. Andersson, Eva, 2008. "Hotelling´s T2 Method in Multivariate On-line Surveillance. On the Delay of an Alarm," Research Reports 2008:3, Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg.
  95. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2002. "Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions," Economics Working Papers 635, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  96. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," Working Papers in Economics 14/23, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
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