A flexible prior distribution for Markov switching autoregressions with Student-t errors
This paper proposes an empirical Bayes approach for Markov switching autoregressions that can constrain some of the state-dependent parameters (regression coefficients and error variances) to be approximately equal across regimes. By flexibly reducing the dimension of the parameter space, this can help to ensure regime separation and to detect the Markov switching nature of the data. The permutation sampler with a hierarchical prior is used for choosing the prior moments, the identification constraint, and the parameters governing prior state dependence. The empirical relevance of the methodology is illustrated with an application to quarterly and monthly real interest rate data.
|Date of creation:||15 Jun 2004|
|Date of revision:||12 Nov 2011|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Econometrics, 2006, vol. 133, no. 1, pp. 153-190.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 26 300 8200
Fax: +41 26 300 9725
Web page: http://www.unifr.ch/ses/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1990.
"An Anlysis Of The Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts,"
353, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-25, February.
- Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- René Garcia & Pierre Perron, 1995. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-05, CIRANO.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
- Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998.
"Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
- Tom Doan, . "KSCPOSTDRAW: RATS procedure to draw from posterior density needed in stochastic volatility model," Statistical Software Components RTS00101, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, EconWPA.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Jacquier, Polson, Rossi (1994) stochastic volatility," Statistical Software Components RTZ00105, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- John Geweke, 1995.
"Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration,"
192, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992.
"An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Fruhwirth-Schnatter S., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 194-209, March.
- John Geweke, 2004. "Getting It Right: Joint Distribution Tests of Posterior Simulators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 799-804, January.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, December.
- C. P. Robert & T. Rydén & D. M. Titterington, 2000. "Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models through the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 57-75.
- Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnattaer & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Switching ARCH Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1381, Econometric Society.
- Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S19-40, Suppl. De.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fri:dqewps:wp0002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivo raemy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.