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Simon Potter

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van den Klaauv, 2017. "The Advantages of Probabilistic Survey Questions," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Just Released: Introducing the SCE Household Spending Survey
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2019-02-19 16:00:00
  2. James J. McAndrews & Simon M. Potter, 2002. "Liquidity effects of the events of September 11, 2001," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(Nov), pages 59-79.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Operational Risk and Financial Stability
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-09-18 16:56:01
    2. Cyber Risk, Financial Stability and the Payments System
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-07-26 15:50:41

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A nonlinear approach to US GNP (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1995) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks (REStud 2007) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1126-1138, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions (JEDC 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A New Model of Trend Inflation (J Business & Econ Statistics 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Gara Afonso & Kyungmin Kim & Antoine Martin & Ed Nosal & Simon M. Potter & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2020. "Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Bichuch, Maxim & Feinstein, Zachary, 2022. "A repo model of fire sales with VWAP and LOB pricing mechanisms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 353-367.
    2. Aberg, Pontus & Corsi, Marco & Grossmann-Wirth, Vincent & Hudepohl, Tom & Mudde, Yvo & Rosolin, Tiziana & Schobert, Franziska, 2021. "Demand for central bank reserves and monetary policy implementation frameworks: the case of the Eurosystem," Occasional Paper Series 282, European Central Bank.
    3. Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "A Repo Model of Fire Sales with VWAP and LOB Pricing Mechanisms," Papers 2005.05364, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    4. Klingler, Sven & Syrstad, Olav, 2021. "Life after LIBOR," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 783-801.

  2. Simon M. Potter, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's experience purchasing and reinvesting agency MBS: remarks at the Bank of England, London," Speech 311, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Karen Pence, 2022. "Liquidity in the mortgage market: How does the COVID‐19 crisis compare with the global financial crisis?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1405-1424, November.

  3. Simon M. Potter, 2018. "Confidence in the implementation of U.S. monetary policy normalization: remarks at the 23rd EMEAP (Executives’ Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks) Governors’ Meeting, Manila, Philippines," Speech 291, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Rod Garratt & Sofia Priazhkina, 2022. "Regulatory Requirements of Banks and Arbitrage in the Post-Crisis Federal Funds Market," Staff Working Papers 22-48, Bank of Canada.

  4. Simon M. Potter, 2017. "Money markets at a crossroads: policy implementation at a time of structural change: remarks at the Master of Applied Economics' Distinguished Speaker Series, University of California, Los Angeles," Speech 240, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Saki Bigio & Javier Bianchi, 2014. "Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 489, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  5. Deborah Leonard & Antoine Martin & Simon M. Potter & Brett Rose, 2017. "How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet: The Case of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Liberty Street Economics 20170711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Emily Greenwald & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Josh Younger, 2023. "Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers 2315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Jane E. Ihrig & Lawrence Mize & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 2017. "How Does the Fed Adjust its Securities Holdings and Who is Affected?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  6. Simon M. Potter, 2017. "Implementing monetary policy with the balance sheet: keynote remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany," Speech 259, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Cost of Capital, Financial Markets and the Real Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-4.
    2. Robert L. Hetzel, 2018. "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Paper 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & Iordanis Petsas, 2020. "The Effectiveness of the Single Mandate of the ECB and the Dual of the Fed," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11.
    4. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2021. "Monetary Policy Rules vs Discretion: Social Cost and Benefits," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(5), pages 1-6.
    5. William T. Gavin, 2018. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(2), pages 151-169.

  7. Simon M. Potter, 2017. "Keynote remarks for the Commemoration of the Centennial of the Federal Reserve’s U.S. Dollar Account Services to the Global Official Sector," Speech 268, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert N McCauley & Catherine R Schenk, 2020. "Central bank swaps then and now: swaps and dollar liquidity in the 1960s," BIS Working Papers 851, Bank for International Settlements.

  8. Deborah Leonard & Antoine Martin & Simon M. Potter, 2017. "How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet," Liberty Street Economics 20170710, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Jane E. Ihrig & Lawrence Mize & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 2017. "How Does the Fed Adjust its Securities Holdings and Who is Affected?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  9. Simon M. Potter, 2016. "Discussion of “Evaluating Monetary Policy Operational Frameworks” by Ulrich Bindseil: remarks at the 2016 Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming," Speech 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Chaitri Gulati & Andrew Lee Smith, 2022. "The Evolving Role of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Effects and Challenges," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 107(no.4), November.

  10. Simon M. Potter, 2016. "The advantages of probabilistic survey questions: remarks at the IT Forum and RCEA Bayesian Workshop, keynote address, Rimini, Italy, May 2016," Speech 211, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence L Kreicher & Robert Neil McCauley, 2016. "Asset managers, eurodollars and unconventional monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 578, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  11. Simon M. Potter, 2016. "Implementing monetary policy post-crisis: What have we learned? What do we need to know? remarks at a workshop organized by Columbia University SIPA and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016," Speech 208, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Link, Thomas & Neyer, Ulrike, 2017. "Friction-induced interbank rate volatility under alternative interest corridor systems," DICE Discussion Papers 259, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    2. Marcelo Rezende & Mary-Frances Styczynski & Cindy M. Vojtech, 2016. "The Effects of Liquidity Regulation on Bank Demand in Monetary Policy Operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  12. Simon M. Potter, 2015. "Money markets and monetary policy normalization," Speech 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth C. Klee & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2016. "Effects of Changing Monetary and Regulatory Policy on Overnight Money Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Huberto M. Ennis, 2017. "Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma," Working Paper 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Mr. Manmohan Singh & Rohit Goel, 2019. "Pledged Collateral Market's Role in Transmission to Short-Term Market Rates," IMF Working Papers 2019/106, International Monetary Fund.

  13. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Disinflation and reliability of underlying inflation measures," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps44, Bank of Russia.
    3. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    5. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
    6. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    8. The People's Bank of China, 2016. "An underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 117-121, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," Working Papers 853, Bruegel.

  14. Simon M. Potter, 2014. "Interest rate control during normalization," Speech 145, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2016. "Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Implementation," Working Papers 16-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Naim Cordemans & Ide Stefaan, 2014. "Normalisation of monetary policy : prospects and divergences," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 29-52, December.
    3. Wei Zhao, 2017. "Informal Finance and Asymmetric Information: A Theory Review," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 190-197, March.

  15. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
    2. Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi & Yossi Saadon, 2020. "Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2020.11, Bank of Israel.
    3. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    4. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model uncertainty in macroeconomics: On the implications of financial frictions," IMFS Working Paper Series 114, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    6. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    7. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    8. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    9. Carlos Diaz Vela, 2016. "Extracting the Information Shocks from the Bank of England Inflation Density Forecasts," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/13, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    10. Barrera Chaupis, Carlos, 2016. "Expectations' Dispersion & Convergence towards Central Banks' IR forecasts: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru & United Kingdom, 2004-2014," MPRA Paper 85410, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2016.
    11. Nuttanan Wichitaksorn, 2020. "Analyzing and Forecasting Thai Macroeconomic Data using Mixed-Frequency Approach," PIER Discussion Papers 146, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    14. Fernanda Nechio, 2015. "Have long-term inflation expectations declined?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    17. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    18. Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Marx's Theory of Money and 21st-century Macrodynamics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_841, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Abhi Gupta & Pearl Li & Erica Moszkowski, 2018. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," Staff Reports 844, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
    21. Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "What has publishing inflation forecasts accomplished? Central banks and their competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2018-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Söderström, Ulf & Iversen, Jens & LASEEN, PER & Lundvall, Henrik, 2016. "Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank," CEPR Discussion Papers 11203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Lorenzo Burlon & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    24. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    26. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. James Cust & David Mihalyi, 2017. "Evidence for a Presource Curse? Oil discoveries, Elevated Expectations, and Growth Disappointments," OxCarre Working Papers 193, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    29. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    30. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    31. Todd E. Clark & Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2015(03), pages 1-6, March.
    32. Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    33. Hanjo Odendaal & Monique Reid & Johann F. Kirsten, 2020. "Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 409-434, December.
    34. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
    35. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    36. Zhang, Hanyuan & Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    37. G. Kontogeorgos & K. Lambrias, 2022. "Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: The first 20 years," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 213-229, March.
    38. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2017. "Econometric Model to Estimate Defaults on Payment in the Spanish Financial Sector in Oliver Wyman¡¯s Stress Tests," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 24-35, February.
    39. Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Norman R. Swanson, 2020. "Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 18-36, January.
    40. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    41. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Should crude oil price volatility receive more attention than the price of crude oil? An empirical investigation via a large‐scale out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation of US macroeconomic data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 769-791, August.
    42. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    43. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2021. "Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy," Papers 2112.15431, arXiv.org.
    44. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
    45. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2021. "Прогнозиране На Данъчните Приходи При Пандемия В Малка Отворена Икономика [Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy]," Post-Print hal-03500128, HAL.
    46. Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    47. Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    48. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    49. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    50. Laine, Olli-Matti & Lindblad, Annika, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables: a MIDAS approach," BoF Economics Review 4/2020, Bank of Finland.
    51. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
    52. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    53. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    54. Florian Huber & Luca Onorante & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," Papers 2207.12225, arXiv.org.
    55. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
    56. Jin-Kyu Jung & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2019. "On the consistency of central banks´ interest rate forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 701-716.
    57. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    58. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    59. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does "below, but close to, two percent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    60. Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan, 2022. "Analyzing and forecasting Thai macroeconomic data using mixed-frequency approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    61. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2021. "Holding the Economy by the Tail: Analysis of Short- and Long-run Macroeconomic Risks," Working Papers 2021/3, Czech National Bank.

  16. Simon M. Potter, 2013. "Recent developments in monetary policy implementation," Speech 127, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefania D'Amico & Roger Fan & Yuriy Kitsul, 2013. "The Scarcity Value of Treasury Collateral: Repo Market Effects of Security-Specific Supply and Demand Factors," Working Paper Series WP-2013-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2016. "Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Implementation," Working Papers 16-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2015. "Excess reserves and monetary policy normalization," Working Papers 15-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Roc Armenter, 2016. "A Tractable Model Of The Demand For Reserves Under Nonlinear Remuneration Schemes," Working Papers 16-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Paul D. Mueller & Joshua Wojnilower, 2016. "The Federal Reserve's Floor System: Immediate Gain for Remote Pain?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 31(Summer 20), pages 15-40.
    6. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2020. "Online Appendix to "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss"," Online Appendices 19-100, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    7. Joseph E. Gagnon & Brian Sack, 2014. "Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Fed," Policy Briefs PB14-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Rhys M. Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2019. "De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss," Working Paper Series 2017-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  17. Simon M. Potter, 2013. "The implementation of current asset purchases," Speech 100, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    2. Laséen, Stefan, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases: Insights from quantitative easing auctions of government bonds," Working Paper Series 419, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortacsu & Zhaogang Song, 2015. "An Empirical Test of Auction Efficiency: Evidence from MBS Auctions of the Federal Reserve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Zhaogang Song & Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  18. Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A New Model Of Trend Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-12, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working papers 2016-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    4. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Kajuth, Florian, 2010. "NAIRU estimates for Germany: New evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
    8. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
    9. Kabundi, Alain & Mlachila, Montfort, 2019. "The role of monetary policy credibility in explaining the decline in exchange rate pass-through in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 173-185.
    10. Mountford, Andrew, 2022. "Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying," MPRA Paper 114249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    12. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Günes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    15. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Stephen Wright & James Mitchell & Donald Robertson, 2018. "R2 bounds for predictive models: what univariate properties tell us about multivariate predictability," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1804, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    17. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    18. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    20. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2014. "Measuring Price-Level Uncertainty and Instability in the U.S., 1850-2012," Working Papers 2014-33, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    21. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    22. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    24. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    25. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    26. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    27. Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Short term inflation forecasting: the M.E.T.A. approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1016, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    29. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2014. "Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    30. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
    31. Niko Hauzenberger & Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart & Cédric Tille, 2022. "What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020," IRENE Working Papers 22-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    32. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    33. Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," CAMA Working Papers 2014-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    34. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    36. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "Is the Quantity Theory of Money Useful in Forecasting U.S. Inflation?," CREATES Research Papers 2014-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    37. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(52), pages 5770-5782, November.
    38. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 805-820, August.
    39. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    40. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
    41. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    42. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    43. Mónica Correa-López & Matías Pacce & Kathi Schlepper, 2019. "Exploring trend inFLation dynamics in Euro Area countries," Working Papers 1909, Banco de España.
    44. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    45. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    46. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    47. Forbes, Kristin & Kirkham, Lewis & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "A trendy approach to UK inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 49, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    48. Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global factors and trend inflation," BIS Working Papers 688, Bank for International Settlements.
    49. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    50. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    51. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    52. De Schryder, Selien & Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2020. "Wage indexation and the monetary policy regime," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    53. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    54. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    55. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
    56. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    57. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    58. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
    59. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    60. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    61. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    62. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2015. "Regime-Switching Models for Estimating Inflation Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    63. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2014. "A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Bivariate Time-Varying Cointegration and Cointegrating Rank," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    64. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    65. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.

  19. Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M Potter, 2012. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-590, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    3. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    5. Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Junjie Guo, 2022. "Generalized band spectrum estimation with an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1055-1078, August.
    6. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    7. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Lenza, Michele & Jarociński, Marek, 2016. "An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1966, European Central Bank.
    11. Huber, Florian & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2016. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 214, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    12. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    13. Kim, Insu & Yie, Myung-Soo, 2016. "Trend inflation, firms' backward-looking behavior, and inflation gap persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-125.
    14. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
    15. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    16. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Philips Curve," Working Papers 2018:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    17. Abhishek K. Umrawal & Joshua C. C. Chan, 2021. "On Parameter Estimation in Unobserved Components Models subject to Linear Inequality Constraints," Papers 2110.12149, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    18. Consolo, Agostino & Da Silva, António Dias, 2019. "The euro area labour market through the lens of the Beveridge curve," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    19. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    21. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia," MPRA Paper 59794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    24. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    25. Andrle, Michal & Plašil, Miroslav, 2018. "Econometrics with system priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 134-137.
    26. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
    27. Michal Andrle & Miroslav Plašil, 2016. "System Priors for Econometric Time Series," IMF Working Papers 2016/231, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    29. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    30. Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global factors and trend inflation," BIS Working Papers 688, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org.
    32. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "Volatilities, drifts and the relation between treasury yields and the corporate bond yield spread in australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 378-384.
    33. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    34. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    35. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
    36. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    37. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    38. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    39. Chu Shiou-Yen & Shane Christopher, 2017. "Using the hybrid Phillips curve with memory to forecast US inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-16, September.
    40. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018. "NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    41. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    42. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    43. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.

  20. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-26, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Machrouh, Fouad & Tarazi, Amine, 2013. "Bank competition, crisis and risk taking: Evidence from emerging markets in Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 196-221.
    2. Mark D. Flood & John C. Liechty & Thomas Piontek, 2015. "Systemwide Commonalities in Market Liquidity," Working Papers 15-11, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    3. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2020. "Credit Risk, Liquidity, and Lies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 219-267, October.
    5. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "News sentiment and bank credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 37-61.
    7. Azusa Takeyama & Naoshi Tsuchida, 2015. "The Interaction between Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity: Evidence from Subprime and European Crises," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Gunay, Samet, 2020. "Seeking causality between liquidity risk and credit risk: TED-OIS spreads and CDS indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "Risk-adjusted Covered Interest Parity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 162016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Hassan, M. Kabir & Khan, Ashraf & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2019. "Liquidity risk, credit risk and stability in Islamic and conventional banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 17-31.
    13. Yoldas, Emre & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2018. "Financial stress and equilibrium dynamics in term interbank funding markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-149.
    14. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," FIW Working Paper series 182, FIW.
    15. Sheng Huang & Jonathan Williams & Ru Xie, 2017. "The Future of Money: Liquidity co-movement between financial institutions and real estate firms: evidence from China," Working Papers 17004, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    16. Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2014. "What Drives Bank Funding Spreads?," Working Paper Series WP-2014-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2017. "Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 105-136, February.
    18. Casavecchia, Lorenzo & Loudon, Geoffrey F. & Wu, Eliza, 2018. "What moves benchmark money market rates? Evidence from the BBSW market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    19. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
    20. McAndrews, James & Sarkar, Asani & Wang, Zhenyu, 2017. "The effect of the term auction facility on the London interbank offered rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-152.
    21. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    22. Ichiro Muto, 2012. "A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    23. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
    24. Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2019. "Beyond LIBOR: a primer on the new benchmark rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    25. Wolfgang Aussenegg & Lukas Goetz & Ranko Jelic, 2015. "Common Factors in the Performance of European Corporate Bonds – Evidence before and after the Financial Crisis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(2), pages 265-308, March.
    26. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "How do housing purchase limits affect firm default risks in Mainland China?," Working Papers 172016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    27. Anthony H. Tu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2016. "What Derives the Bond Portfolio Value-at-Risk: Information Roles of Macroeconomic and Financial Stress Factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    28. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    29. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Siewert, Jan B. & Vonhoff, Volker, 2013. "Credit risk in covered bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 102-120.
    30. Rim Boussaada & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is there a threshold effect in the liquidity risk–non‐performing loans relationship? A PSTR approach for MENA banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1886-1898, April.
    31. José Da Fonseca & Peiming Wang, 2016. "A joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap, volatility and stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1767-1784, April.
    32. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    33. Gerhart, Christoph & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2020. "Empirical analysis and forecasting of multiple yield curves," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 59-78.
    34. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.

  21. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-47, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. James Yetman, 2020. "Pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 895, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    4. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Mössner, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 55-87, June.
    6. Hossein Hassani & Jan Coreman & Saeed Heravi & Joshy Easaw, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation Rate: Professional Against Academic, Which One is More Accurate," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 631-646, September.
    7. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    9. James Yetman, 2020. "The pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 55-66, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Speck, Christian, 2017. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1998, European Central Bank.
    11. Nyberg, Henri & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Forecasting with a noncausal VAR model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2012, Bank of Finland.
    12. Till Strohsal & Lars Winkelmann, 2012. "Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. José Vicente Romero & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Weather Shocks and Inflation Expectations in Semi-Structural Models," Borradores de Economia 1218, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
    15. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    16. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

  22. Simon M. Potter, 2011. "Improving survey measures of inflation expectations," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Yuichiro Ito & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2016. "Effects of Inflation and Wage Expectations on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.

  23. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2010. "Technical Appendix to: Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis," Working Paper series 46_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Casavecchia, Lorenzo & Loudon, Geoffrey F. & Wu, Eliza, 2018. "What moves benchmark money market rates? Evidence from the BBSW market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    2. Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2019. "Beyond LIBOR: a primer on the new benchmark rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

  24. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print hal-00732535, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation," Working Paper series 15_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Tolga Omay & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Mubariz Hasanov, 2018. "Structural break, nonlinearity and asymmetry: a re-examination of PPP proposition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(12), pages 1289-1308, March.
    3. Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A Global Perspective," Energy: Resources and Markets 127423, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    5. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach," Working Papers 20-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Philipp Piribauer, 2016. "Heterogeneity in spatial growth clusters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 659-680, September.
    8. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Hušková, Marie, 2012. "Segmenting mean-nonstationary time series via trending regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 367-381.
    9. Banu Kurtaran, 2015. "Re-examining the PPP Hypothesis via Nonlinearity and Smooth Breaks," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21.

  25. Simon M. Potter, 2010. "Some observations and lessons from the crisis," Speech 25, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America""," Borradores de Economia 7073, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luigi Paciello, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Doubts and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 1024, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2010.
    3. Noel D'Cruz & Davide Crippa, 2012. "Stress Testing," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 39-52.
    4. Boettke, Peter & Smith, Daniel & Snow, Nicholas, 2011. "Been there done that: the political economy of Déjà Vu," MPRA Paper 32094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. David Allen & Robert Faff, 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis: some attributes and responses," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(1), pages 1-7, March.
    6. Grodecka, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2018. "Predictors of Bank Distress: The 1907 Crisis in Sweden," Lund Papers in Economic History 180, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    7. Antônio Albano de Freitas, 2017. "Neoliberalism, Profitability, and the Crisis in the Eurozone," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 410-429, September.
    8. Peter Praet, 2010. "Building a more stable financial system : regulatory reform in a post-crisis perspective," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 8(1), pages 115-126, June.
    9. Grosse, Robert, 2017. "The global financial crisis—Market misconduct and regulation from a behavioral view," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 387-398.
    10. Kevin Davis, 2012. "Bank Capital Adequacy: Where to Now?," Chapters, in: Mohamed Ariff & John H. Farrar & Ahmed M. Khalid (ed.), Regulatory Failure and the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Ianthi Vayid, 2013. "Central Bank Communications Before, During and After the Crisis: From Open-Market Operations to Open-Mouth Policy," Staff Working Papers 13-41, Bank of Canada.

  26. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation," Working Paper series 15_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    2. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data," Working Paper Series 1945, European Central Bank.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2018. "Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 825, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. James Yetman, 2020. "Pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 895, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," BIS Working Papers 936, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    8. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Paper series 14_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors," MPRA Paper 119029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2017. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 2017/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    13. Duran, Murat & Gülşen, Eda, 2013. "Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 592-601.
    14. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1995, European Central Bank.
    15. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2021. "Expectation spillovers and the return of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    17. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2016. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 62-71.
    18. Speck, Christian, 2017. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1998, European Central Bank.
    19. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations," KOF Working papers 13-339, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    20. Till Strohsal & Lars Winkelmann, 2012. "Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    21. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2018. "Is the Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations Shaped by Inflational Experience?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7042, CESifo.
    22. Dieter Nautz & Aleksei Netsunajev & Till Strohsal, 2016. "Aggregate Employment, Job Polarization and Inequalities: A Transatlantic Perspective," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    23. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    24. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79889, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
    26. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    28. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    29. Juan Angel García & Sebastian E. V. Werner, 2021. "Inflation News and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 1-60, September.
    30. Alturki, Sultan & Olson, Eric, 2022. "Oil sentiment and the U.S. inflation premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    31. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    32. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    33. Lemke, Wolfgang & Strohsal, Till, 2013. "What Can Break-Even Inflation Rates Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79794, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    34. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    35. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    36. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

  27. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers," Staff Reports 420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Li, Xin & Pan, Bing & Law, Rob & Huang, Xiankai, 2017. "Forecasting tourism demand with composite search index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 57-66.
    3. Amstad, Marlene & Ye, Huan & Ma, Guonan, 2018. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    5. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2013. "Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 505-519, March.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ádám Reiff & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Sticky Price Inflation Index: An Alternative Core Inflation Measure," MNB Working Papers 2013/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Reis, Ricardo & Watson, Mark W., 2007. "Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire," Kiel Working Papers 1364, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    12. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodr�guez, 2012. "A factorial decomposition of inflation in Peru: an alternative measure of core inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1331-1334, September.
    13. Gideon Du Rand & Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 503, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    15. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. The People's Bank of China, 2016. "An underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 117-121, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," Working Papers 853, Bruegel.
    19. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.

  28. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Dynamic hierarchical factor models," Staff Reports 412, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Bresson, G. & Etienne, J-M. & Mohnen, P., 2014. "How important is innovation? : A Bayesian factor-augmented productivity model on panel data," MERIT Working Papers 2014-052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    3. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2010. "Macroeconomic factors and micro-level bank risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Özge Savascin, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Banica Logica & Stefan Liviu Cristian & Jurian Mariana, 2014. "Business Intelligence For Educational Purpose," Balkan Region Conference on Engineering and Business Education, Sciendo, vol. 1(1), pages 333-338, August.
    6. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," Working Paper Series 1334, European Central Bank.
    7. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Filippo Ferroni & Benjamin Klaus, 2015. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3791-3815, July.
    9. Parker, Miles, 2017. "Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices," Working Paper Series 2024, European Central Bank.
    10. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
    11. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    12. Michael Kirker, 2010. "What drives core inflation? A dynamic factor model analysis of tradable and nontradable prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2009. "On the importance of sectoral shocks for price-setting," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/32, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna, 2018. "The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 32-44.
    15. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2012. "Identification and estimation of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 38434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. Marcel Förster & Markus Jorra & Peter Tillmann, 2012. "The Dynamics of International Capital Flows: Results from a Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201221, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Interdependence in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," MPRA Paper 45955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2017. "Risk evaluations with robust approximate factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 244-264.
    21. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.

  29. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger, 2015. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 681-700, October.
    2. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stefano Eusepi & Giorgio Topa & Andrea Tambalotti & Richard Crump, 2016. "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution," 2016 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    7. Nautz, Dieter & Pagenhardt, Laura & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    8. Olivier Armantier & Argia M. Sbordone & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & John C. Williams, 2022. "A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys," Staff Reports 1007, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maxime Phillot & Dr. Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies," Working Papers 2018-11, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Gizem Kosar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2023. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 10300, CESifo.
    12. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
    14. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    16. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Financial Variables, Market Transactions, and Expectations as Functions of Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, November.
    18. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee, 2011. "What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?," NBER Working Papers 16974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ernest Gnan & Johannes Langthaler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2011. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Some Stylized Facts and Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 43-66.
    20. Lena Dräger & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2011. "Perceived Inflation under Loss Aversion," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201105, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    21. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.

  30. Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Is there still an added-worker effect?," Staff Reports 310, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Jiro Honda & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2019. "Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/004, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Doepke, Matthias & Tertilt, Michèle, 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," IZA Discussion Papers 9802, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Gunseli Berik & Ebru Kongar, 2012. "Time Use of Mothers and Fathers in Hard Times: The US Recession of 2007-09," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_726, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Julio Guzman, 2014. "Social Protection and Private Coping Strategies During Recessions: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers wp_041, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    6. Gregory Verdugo & Guillaume Allegre, 2017. "Labour force participation and job polarization : evidence from Europe during the great recession," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03458737, HAL.
    7. Razzu, Giovanni & Singleton, Carl, 2016. "Gender and the business cycle: An analysis of labour markets in the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 131-146.
    8. Haomin Wang, 2018. "Intra-Household Risk Sharing and Job Search over the Business Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1760, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," NBER Working Papers 21252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stefania Albanesi, 2019. "Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment," Working Paper 6608, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    11. Haomin Wang, 2018. "Online Appendix to "Intra-Household Risk Sharing and Job Search over the Business Cycle"," Online Appendices 18-240, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    12. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Upjohn Working Papers 20-337, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    13. Sisi Zhang, 2014. "Wage shocks, household labor supply, and income instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 767-796, July.
    14. Gunseli Berik & Ebru Kongar, 2011. "Time Use of Mothers and Fathers in Hard Times and Better Times: The US Business Cycle of 2003-10," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_696, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Shwetlena Sabarwal & Nistha Sinha & Mayra Buvinic, 2011. "How Do Women Weather Economic Shocks? What We Know," World Bank Publications - Reports 10113, The World Bank Group.
    16. Stefania Albanesi & Maria Jose Prados, 2022. "Slowing Women’s Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality," Working Papers 2022-037, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    17. Günseli Berik & Ebru Kongar, 2011. "Time Use of Mothers and Fathers in Hard Times and Better Times: the U.S. Business Cycle of 2003-2010," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2011_16, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    18. Inés Hardoy & Pål Schøne, 2014. "Displacement and household adaptation: insured by the spouse or the state?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 683-703, July.
    19. Martinoty, Laurine, 2022. "Partner’s income shock and female labor supply. Evidence from the repeal of Argentina’s convertibility law," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Maggie R. Jones, 2014. "The EITC over the business cycle: Who benefits?," CARRA Working Papers 2014-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    21. Lee, Siha, 2020. "Household responses to disability shocks: Spousal labor supply, caregiving, and disability insurance," CLEF Working Paper Series 21, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    22. Sabarwal, Shwetlena & Sinha, Nistha & Buvinic, Mayra, 2010. "How do women weather economic shocks ? a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5496, The World Bank.

  31. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Reexamining the consumption-wealth relationship: the role of model uncertainty," Staff Reports 202, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2009. "Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy," Working Paper series 44_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary, 2011. "Regime-Switching Cointegration," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    6. Olivier Allain, 2011. "The impact of income distribution on consumption: a reassessment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00712657, HAL.
    7. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Re-evaluating the association between housing wealth and aggregate consumption: New evidence from Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 321-348, December.
    8. Iscan, Talan B., 2011. "Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 501-514, January.
    9. Frank Schmid, 2013. "Wealth Effects on Consumption in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(I), pages 87-110, March.
    10. Yang, Zan & Wang, S.T., 2012. "Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 336-346.
    11. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    12. Justyna Wróblewska, 2009. "Bayesian Model Selection in the Analysis of Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 57-69, March.
    13. Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
    14. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 459/460, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
    16. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    17. Ren, Yu & Yuan, Yufei & Zhang, Yang, 2014. "Human capital, household capital and asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 11-22.
    18. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.

  32. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2022. "Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 578-606, December.
    2. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    4. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2004. "Learning, Liquidity Preference, and Business Cycle," ISER Discussion Paper 0601, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "Learning, Inflation Cycles, and Depression," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Horii, Ryo & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2009. "Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model," MPRA Paper 13485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  33. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior elicitation in multiple change-point models," Staff Reports 197, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Li, Guangjie, 2016. "Financial development, structure and growth: New data, method and results," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 95-112.
    3. Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2009. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series With Locally Adaptive Signal Extraction," Working Paper Series 234, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2020. "Modeling Turning Points In Global Equity Market," DEM Working Papers Series 195, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Venkata Jandhyala & Stergios Fotopoulos & Ian MacNeill & Pengyu Liu, 2013. "Inference for single and multiple change-points in time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 423-446, July.
    7. Lu Shaochuan, 2023. "Scalable Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Detection via Auxiliary Uniformisation," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 91(1), pages 88-113, April.
    8. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
    9. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    10. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
    12. Hinoveanu, Laurentiu C. & Leisen, Fabrizio & Villa, Cristiano, 2019. "Bayesian loss-based approach to change point analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 61-78.
    13. Petros Dellaportas & David G. T. Denison & Chris Holmes, 2007. "Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 419-437.
    14. Guangjie Li, 2015. "A stochastic frontier model with structural breaks in efficiency and technology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 131-159, August.
    15. Ruggieri, Eric & Antonellis, Marcus, 2016. "An exact approach to Bayesian sequential change point detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 71-86.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Festus V. Bekun, 2021. "Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, April.

  34. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    3. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    5. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
    6. Petros Dellaportas & David G. T. Denison & Chris Holmes, 2007. "Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 419-437.
    7. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    8. Ravazzolo, F. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Jaehee Kim & Sooyoung Cheon, 2010. "Bayesian multiple change-point estimation with annealing stochastic approximation Monte Carlo," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 215-239, June.

  35. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Staff Reports 163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
    2. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    3. Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia 9511, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
    6. Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2012. "Uncertainty and Heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    7. Kapetanios, G. & Labhard, V. & Price, S., 2007. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Working Papers 07/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
    8. Luis F. Melo Velandia & Rubén A. Loaiza Maya & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2014. "Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates," Borradores de Economia 853, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. David O. Cushman, 2012. "Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA's Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 309-349, September.
    12. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Li, Gang & Li, Yong, 2015. "Forecasting copper futures volatility under model uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 167-176.
    14. Eliana González, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 604, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Rumi Masih & A. Mansur M. Masih & Kilian Mie, 2010. "Model uncertainty and asset return predictability: an application of Bayesian model averaging," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(15), pages 1963-1972.
    16. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting Using Predictive Likelihood Model Averaging," Working Papers 567, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    19. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
    20. Tevdovski, Dragan & Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2016. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 73461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2016.
    21. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2007. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England.
    22. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    24. Ando, Tomohiro & Tsay, Ruey, 2010. "Predictive likelihood for Bayesian model selection and averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-763, October.
    25. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    26. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    27. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    28. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2011. "Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    29. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
    31. Chotikapanich, D. & Griffiths, W.E. & Rao, D.S.P., 2001. "Averaging Income Distributions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 798, The University of Melbourne.
    32. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    33. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    34. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    35. Zaghdoudi, Taha, 2014. "Modèle d’alerte des crises bancaires basé sur une approche bayésienne [Banking crisis early warning model based on a bayesian model averaging approach]," MPRA Paper 69262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Garett Jones & W. Schneider, 2006. "Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 71-93, March.
    37. Chua, Chew Lian & Suardi, Sandy & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2013. "Predicting short-term interest rates using Bayesian model averaging: Evidence from weekly and high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-455.
    38. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    39. Taha Zaghdoudi, 2016. "Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 275-288, October.

  36. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle," Staff Reports 126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables : a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Working Papers halshs-00333582, HAL.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    6. Satoshi Urasawa, 2018. "Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized Facts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 243-281, November.
    7. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    13. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    14. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Stan Radchenko & Oleg Korenok, 2004. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 149, Econometric Society.
    16. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
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    1. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    2. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.
    3. José Cancelo, 2007. "Cyclical Asymmetries in Unemployment Rates: International Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 334-346, August.
    4. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "Comment on "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods"," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1691-1693, July.
    6. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    7. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
    8. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.

  39. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Endogenous Delay Threshold Models," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 11, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    2. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    3. Franta, Michal, 2021. "The Likelihood Of Effective Lower Bound Events," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2058-2079, December.
    4. Gordon, S. & Belanger, G., 1995. "Echantillonnage de Gibbs et autres application econometriques des chaines merkoviennes," Papers 9509, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    5. Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2013. "Evidence On Features Of A Dsge Business Cycle Model From Bayesian Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 385-402, February.
    6. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1128-1144, July.
    7. Michael ARTIS & Ana Beatriz C. GALVÃO & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2003. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/18, European University Institute.
    8. Michal Franta, 2015. "Rare Shocks vs. Non-linearities: What Drives Extreme Events in the Economy? Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2015/04, Czech National Bank.
    9. Michal Franta, 2013. "The Effect of Non-Linearity Between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts," Working Papers 2013/09, Czech National Bank.
    10. Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2017. "Does Competition Prevent Industrial Pollution? Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model," MPRA Paper 85177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Knight John & Satchell Stephen, 2011. "Some New Results for Threshold AR(1) Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-42, April.
    12. Jaehee Kim & Chulwoo Jeong, 2016. "A Bayesian multiple structural change regression model with autocorrelated errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1690-1705, July.
    13. Minxian Yang, 2014. "Normality of Posterior Distribution Under Misspecification and Nonsmoothness, and Bayes Factor for Davies' Problem," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 305-336, June.
    14. Jean-Marc Le Caillec, 2021. "Threshold autoregressive model blind identification based on array clustering," Post-Print hal-03210735, HAL.
    15. Yuzhi Cai & Guodong Li, 2018. "A novel approach to modelling the distribution of financial returns," Working Papers 2018-22, Swansea University, School of Management.
    16. Giannikis, D. & Vrontos, I.D. & Dellaportas, P., 2008. "Modelling nonlinearities and heavy tails via threshold normal mixture GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1549-1571, January.

  40. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2000. "The Vector Floor and Ceiling Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/15, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

    Cited by:

    1. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    2. Gefang Deborah & Strachan Rodney, 2009. "Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the U.K. -- A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-33, December.
    3. Meriam BouAli & Adnen Ben Nasr & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2016. "A Nonlinear Approach for Modeling and Forecasting US Business Cycles," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 39-74, March.

  41. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Staff Reports 59, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2014. "On testing for nonlinearity in multivariate time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-4.
    2. Thomas Barnay & Olivier Damette, 2012. "What drives Health Care Expenditure in France since 1950?," Working Papers hal-00717435, HAL.
    3. Thomas Barnay & Olivier Damette, 2012. "What drives Health Care Expenditure in France since 1950? A time-series study with structural breaks and nonlinearity approaches," TEPP Working Paper 2012-01, TEPP.
    4. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
    6. Markus Jochmann, 2015. "Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 537-558, May.
    7. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
    8. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    9. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    10. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
    11. Zhou, Jian, 2016. "A high-frequency analysis of the interactions between REIT return and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-108.
    12. Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Dilip Kumar, 2020. "Value-at-Risk in the Presence of Structural Breaks Using Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 587-610, September.
    15. Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    16. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1128-1144, July.
    17. Khurshid M. Kiani & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2004. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 333-351, July.
    18. Maki Daiki, 2010. "Detection of Stationarity in Nonlinear Processes: A Comparison between Structural Breaks and Three-Regime TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-43, September.
    19. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print hal-00732535, HAL.
    20. Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Anchor currency and real exchange rate dynamics in the CFA Franc zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 722-732.
    22. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    23. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Herrerias, M.J. & Ordóñez, J., 2014. "If the United States sneezes, does the world need “pain-killers”?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 159-170.
    25. Daud Ali Aser & Esin Firuzan, 2022. "Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 1-25, December.
    26. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120.
    27. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    28. Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2017. "Does Competition Prevent Industrial Pollution? Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model," MPRA Paper 85177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos K. Protopapas, 2010. "Multi-regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Working Papers 026, COMISEF.
    30. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    31. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina B. Panovska, 2017. "When Do Discretionary Changes in Government Spending or Taxes Have Larger Effects?," Discussion Papers 2017-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    32. Haug Alfred A & Beyer Andreas & Dewald William, 2011. "Structural Breaks and the Fisher Effect," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, May.
    33. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    35. Smallwood Aaron D, 2005. "Joint Tests for Non-linearity and Long Memory: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-30, June.
    36. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    37. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2009. "Asymmetries in Macroeconomic Time Series in Eleven Asian Economies," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(1), pages 37-54, April.
    38. Ahmad Yamin & Donayre Luiggi, 2016. "Outliers and persistence in threshold autoregressive processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 37-56, February.
    39. Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of Polish Inflation Rates Using RCA and GLL Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 129-138.
    40. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 319-341, June.
    41. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
    42. Beyer, Andreas & Dewald, William G. & Haug, Alfred A., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
    43. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models," Staff Reports 285, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
    45. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    46. Likai Chen & Ekaterina Smetanina & Wei Biao Wu, 2022. "Estimation of nonstationary nonparametric regression model with multiplicative structure [Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: A continuous-time approach]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 176-214.
    47. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Boršič, Darja, 2013. "Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 163-180.
    48. Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2010. "Unobserved Component Model for Forecasting Polish Inflation," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 121-129.
    49. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.

  42. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear risk," Staff Reports 61, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Staff Reports 65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Peter N Smith & Steffen Sorensen & Mike Wickens, 2007. "The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on the Equity Premium (This is an extensively revised version of earlier paper No. 06/04)," Discussion Papers 07/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Piotr Płuciennik, 2012. "The Impact of the World Financial Crisis on the Polish Interbank Market: A Swap Spread Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 269-288, December.
    4. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wickens, Michael R. & Smith, Peter N & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009. "The Equity Premium and the Business Cycle: the Role of Demand and Supply Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions an Accurate Model for Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI.
    7. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
    8. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    9. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    10. Franz Alonso Hamann S., 1996. "Puede Explicarse El Precio Externo Del Café Con Un Modelo Econometrico No Lineal?," Borradores de Economia 3408, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    12. Lokshin, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "Short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts? - household income dynamics in a transition economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2459, The World Bank.
    13. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance," Finance 9411001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
    15. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.

  43. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction," Staff Reports 87, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    4. J-P.Guironnet, 2006. "Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l'éducation en France (1815-2003): vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 34, pages 193-214, February.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Post-Print hal-03417062, HAL.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    7. Bertram, Philip & Ma, Jun & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Real exchange rates and economic fundamentals: An investigation based on a Markov-STAR model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-565, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Michael Hutchison & Jake Kendall & Gurnain Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization : Evidence from NDF Markets," Finance Working Papers 22971, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Rodrigo Aranda & Patricio Jaramillo, 2008. "Nonlinear Dynamic in the Chilean Stock Market: Evidence from Returns and Trading Volume," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 463, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. José Cancelo & Estefanía Mourelle, 2005. "Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 135-147, May.
    11. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    12. Eloïse Corazza & Francesco Filippucci, 2022. "Who Profits from Training Subsidies? Evidence from a French Individual Learning Account," PSE Working Papers halshs-03519664, HAL.
    13. Martin Evans and Richard Lyons, 2007. "How Is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," Working Papers gueconwpa~07-07-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    14. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: The Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," CESifo Working Paper Series 2936, CESifo.
    15. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    16. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Is there asymmetric behaviour in African inflation? A non-linear approach," NCID Working Papers 03/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    17. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego F., 2018. "Effect of stopping hydroelectric power generation on the dynamics of electricity prices: An event study approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 456-467.
    20. Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    21. Valderrama, Diego, 2007. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: A challenge for the canonical RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2957-2983, September.
    22. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    23. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 868-882, November.
    25. Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2013/145, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Mejia-Reyes, P., 2004. "Classical Business Cycles in America: Are National Business Cycles Synchronised?," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(3), pages 75-102.
    27. Michael M Hutchison & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 395-438, September.
    28. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2007. "Nonlinearity In The Canadian And U.S. Labor Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 613-637, November.
    29. Li, Yushu & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Testing for Unit Root against LSTAR Model: Wavelet Improvement under GARCH Distortion," CAFO Working Papers 2009:6, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    30. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    31. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2021. "Forecasting corporate capital accumulation in Italy: the role of survey-based information," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Martin Evans, 2000. "FX trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    34. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2002. "Testing the assumption of Linearity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-9.
    35. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
    36. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Iqbal, Javed & Rehman, Muhammad & Ur-Rehman, Hafeez, 2011. "Nonlinearity In Inflation, A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    39. Wang, Jianqiang C. & Holan, Scott H., 2012. "Bayesian multi-regime smooth transition regression with ordered categorical variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 4165-4179.
    40. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "The Bi-parameter Smooth Transition Autoregressive model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(23), pages 1-11.
    41. Hannu KOSKINEN, 2010. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," EcoMod2004 330600082, EcoMod.
    42. Elliott Robert J. & Siu Tak Kuen & Lau John W., 2018. "A hidden Markov regime-switching smooth transition model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 1-21, September.
    43. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Did Okun's Law Die after the Great Recession?," Working papers 2016-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    44. T Tang, 2009. "Testing for Non-linearity in the Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: The Case of 20 Industrial Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 107-124, September.
    45. Amendola, Alessandra & Christian, Francq, 2009. "Concepts and tools for nonlinear time series modelling," MPRA Paper 15140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Regime-switching Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis of UK meat consumption," Econometrics 0409007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Hannu Koskinen, 2004. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 63-72, Autumn.
    48. Rodrigo F. Aranda L. & Patricio Jaramillo G., 2010. "Non-linear Dynamics in the Chilean Stock Market: Evidence on Traded Volumes and Returns," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(3), pages 67-94, December.
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    51. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  44. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Fluctuations in confidence and asymmetric business cycles," Staff Reports 66, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    1. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    4. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
    5. Guse, Eran A., 2014. "Adaptive learning, endogenous uncertainty, and asymmetric dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 355-373.
    6. Guse, Eran A., 2004. "Expectational business cycles," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2004, Bank of Finland.

  45. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Staff Reports 65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
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    4. Octavio Fernández Amador & Josef Baumgartner & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2010. "Milking the Prices: The Role of Asymmetries in the Price Transmission Mechanism for Milk Products in Austria," WIFO Working Papers 378, WIFO.
    5. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2011. "Home bias and the persistence of real exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 55-59.
    6. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Kim, Kwansoo, 2001. "An Econometric Analysis Of The Effects Of Market Liberalization On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20649, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2014. "Understanding the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Corporate Bond Market in Good and Bad Times: A Markov Switching Model," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1623, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 489, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. P Mejía-Reyes & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Output Performance in Latin America," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 35, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    12. Fragiskos Archontakis & Rocco Mosconi, 2021. "Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, August.
    13. Lo, Ming Chien & Morley, James, 2015. "Bayesian analysis of nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and the purchasing power parity persistence puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 285-302.
    14. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2007. "Deterministic impulse response in a nonlinear model. An analytical expression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 315-319, June.
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    17. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
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    30. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "Characterizing the degree of stability of non-linear dynamic models," Umeå Economic Studies 564, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
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    38. Feng, Zongbao & Chen, Weiya & Liu, Yang & Chen, Hongyu & Skibniewski, Mirosław J., 2023. "Long-term equilibrium relationship analysis and energy-saving measures of metro energy consumption and its influencing factors based on cointegration theory and an ARDL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
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    41. Valderrama, Diego, 2007. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: A challenge for the canonical RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2957-2983, September.
    42. Gonzalo, Jesus & Martinez, Oscar, 2006. "Large shocks vs. small shocks. (Or does size matter? May be so.)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 311-347.
    43. Gary S. Anderson, 2018. "Reliably Computing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Model Solutions: An Algorithm with Error Formulas," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    45. Pelloni, Gianluigi & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shock: A Generalished Impulse Response Function Analysis for Three European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 794-816.
    46. Davinson Stev Abril Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2015. "Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 13648, Banco de la Republica.
    47. Altissimo, F. & Violante, G.L., 1998. "Nonlinear VAR: Some Theory and an Application to the US GNP and Unemployment," Papers 338, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    48. Chavas, Jean- Paul & Mehta, Aashish, 2002. "Price Dynamics in a Vertical Sector: The Case of Butter," Working Papers 201555, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    49. Mototsugu Shintani, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Approach to Nonlinear Stability Analysis," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000621, UCLA Department of Economics.
    50. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    51. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Boswijk, H.P., 2000. "Asymmetric and common absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-01/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    52. T. Panagiotidis & G. Pelloni & W. Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shocks: A Generalised Impulse Reponse Function Analysis for Three European Countries," Working Papers 505, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    53. Shigeru Iwata, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates When Short-Term Rates Are Close to Zero," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 59-78, November.
    54. Jaroslav Borovička & Lars Peter Hansen & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Risk Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 15506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices: An Illustration of (lambda, sigma-2) Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 267, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    56. Oscar Martin & Jesus Gonzalo, 2004. "Threshold Integrated Moving Average Models (Does Size Matter? Maybe So)," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 145, Econometric Society.
    57. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Macroeconomics 0403016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Pan, Suwen & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fadiga, Mohamadou L., 2003. "Price Relationships In The U.S. Fiber Markets: Its Implications For Cotton Industry," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22138, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    59. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics.
    60. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    61. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    62. Iwata, Shigeru & Wu, Shu, 2006. "Estimating monetary policy effects when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1395-1408, October.
    63. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2006. "The stability of electricity prices: estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland.
    64. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
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    69. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
    70. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. Fernando J. Pérez Forero & Marco Vega, 2016. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs," Working Papers 63, Peruvian Economic Association.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 2001. "An invariant sign test for random walks based on recursive median adjustment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 197-229, June.
    3. Francesco D’Amuri & Juri Marcucci, 2010. "“Google it!”Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index," Working Papers 2010.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    5. Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Kent Matthews, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - the Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    6. Li, Dong & Ling, Shiqing & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2015. "Asymptotic inference in multiple-threshold double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 415-427.
    7. Mariola Piłatowska & Dorota Witkowska, 2022. "Gender Segregation at Work over Business Cycle—Evidence from Selected EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, August.
    10. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Endogenous Delay Threshold Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 93-103, January.
    11. Aaron D. Smallwood & Paul M. Beaumont, 2002. "An Asymptotic MLE Approach to Modelling Multiple Frequency GARMA Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 285, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    13. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs," Econometrics 0409013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Floros, Ch., 2005. "Forecasting the UK Unemployment Rate: Model Comparisons," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 57-72.
    15. Zhu, Yanli & Han, Xiaoyi & Chen, Ying, 2020. "Bayesian estimation and model selection of threshold spatial Durbin model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
    17. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2012. "Estimation and inference in threshold type regime switching models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1204, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Donayre Luiggi & Eo Yunjong & Morley James, 2018. "Improving likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in finite samples," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    20. Norman J. Morin & John M. Roberts, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    22. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised Jul 1999.
    23. Henry, O.T. & Summers, P.M., 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 738, The University of Melbourne.
    24. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    25. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    26. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
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    245. Grabowski Daniel & Winker Peter & Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2017. "Generating prediction bands for path forecasts from SETAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-18, December.
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    248. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and The Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    252. Jean-Paul Chavas & Salvatore Falco, 2017. "Resilience, Weather and Dynamic Adjustments in Agroecosystems: The Case of Wheat Yield in England," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(2), pages 297-320, June.
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    256. Sungill Han & Chanjin Chung & Prasanna Surathkal, 2017. "Impacts of Increased Corn Ethanol Production on Price Asymmetry and Market Linkages in Fed Cattle Markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 378-402, June.
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    261. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Business cycles and monetary policy asymmetry: An investigation using Markov-switching models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 297-306.
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    2. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Articles

  1. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Matteo Luciani, 2020. "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Matteo Luciani & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2021. "Inferential Theory for Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2021-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  2. Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van den Klaauv, 2017. "The Advantages of Probabilistic Survey Questions," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Kosar & Tyler Ransom & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2020. "Understanding Migration Aversion Using Elicited Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 8117, CESifo.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.

  3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 273-301, May.

    Cited by:

    1. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Managing households' expectations with unconventional policies," Working Paper Series in Economics 148, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    3. Lovisa Reiche, 2023. "That’s what she said: An Empirical Investigation on the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations," Economics Series Working Papers 1025, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Binder Carola Conces, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Francesco D'Acunto & Ulrike M. Malmendier & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2020. "Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 8158, CESifo.
    6. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2019. "Incentives, Search Engines, and the Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: Evidence From Representative Online Survey Experiments," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 146, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Grant Graziani & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "A boost in the paycheck: survey evidence on workers’ response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts," Staff Reports 592, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2019. "Managing Households' Expectations with Salient Economic Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7793, CESifo.
    9. Brent Meyer & Xuguang Sheng, 2024. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12b, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2020. "Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2023. "Perceived Inflation in Germany in 2022," MPRA Paper 118403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 160, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2019. "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Brent H. Meyer & Brian Prescott & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations," Working Papers 2020-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    15. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia, 2021. "Does the central banker type affect inflation expectations?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(1), pages 93-102.
    16. Michael Weber & Francesco D’Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," NBER Working Papers 30046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    18. Olivier Armantier & Argia M. Sbordone & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & John C. Williams, 2022. "A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys," Staff Reports 1007, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2021. "Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 784-807, September.
    20. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2020. "Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 315-344, July.
    22. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    23. Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Messung der gefühlten Inflation in Deutschland," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 12 (November 2022), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    24. Weber, Michael & D'Acunto, Francesco & Malmendier, Ulrike M., 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
    26. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," Working Papers 1535, Banco de España.
    27. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Meon, 2021. "Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202127, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    28. Malmendier, Ulrike M., 2020. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14930, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00542, The Field Experiments Website.
    30. Bovi, Maurizio, 2019. "A Time-Varying Expectations Formation Mechanism," MPRA Paper 97624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    32. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2017. "Measuring the Distributions of Public Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the UK," MPRA Paper 76244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    34. Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
    35. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    36. Maurizio Bovi & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 451-469, December.
    37. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    39. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    40. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    41. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovicka & Paul Ho, 2019. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," Working Paper 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    42. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

  7. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng & Simon Potter, 2013. "Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1811-1817, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2012. "The dynamics of UK and US inflation expectations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3120-3133.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1126-1138, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2015. "Inference on Multivariate Heteroscedastic Time Varying Random Coefficient Models," Working Papers 767, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    4. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.
    5. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Paper series 44_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    7. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2017. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1777-1802, December.
    8. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03498781, HAL.
    10. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    11. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2014-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    13. Tao Zeng & Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2014. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 33, pages 615-637, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Pami Dua & Deepika Goel, 2021. "Inflation Persistence in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 525-553, September.
    15. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "The Evolution of the U.S. Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CAMA Working Papers 2013-70, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Qian, Hang, 2015. "Inequality Constrained State Space Models," MPRA Paper 66447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Adam, Marc C. & Jansson, Walter, 2019. "Credit constraints and the propagation of the Great Depression in Germany," Discussion Papers 2019/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    18. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Bala Dahiru Abdullahi, 2016. "Time-Varying VAR with Stochastic Volatility and Monetary Policy Dynamics in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2237-2249.
    20. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2012. "Estimating Overidentified, Nonrecursive Time-Varying Coefficients Structural VARs," Working Papers 637, Barcelona School of Economics.
    21. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    22. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    23. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A new model of trend inflation," MPRA Paper 39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    26. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "UK Inflation Forecasts since the Thirteenth Century," Working Paper 1454, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    27. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    28. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    29. Chunyeung Kwok, 2022. "Estimating Structural Shocks with the GVAR-DSGE Model: Pre- and Post-Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-32, May.
    30. Angelia L. Grant, 2017. "The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 224-232, January.
    31. Meradj Mortezapouraghdam, 2016. "Three Essays on the Role of Frictions in the Economy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj8, Sciences Po.
    32. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    33. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2022. "The Anatomy of Single-Digit Inflation in the 1960s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    35. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    36. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    38. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2013. "Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: a Corrigendum," Staff Reports 619, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    39. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    40. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo, 2020. "On the inflation risks embedded in sovereign bond yields," Working Paper Series 2423, European Central Bank.
    41. Huachen Li, 2023. "The Time‐Varying Response of Hours Worked to a Productivity Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1907-1935, October.

  10. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Understanding liquidity and credit risks in the financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 903-914.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 134-150, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).

    Cited by:

    1. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Household Debt and Saving during the 2007 Recession," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 273-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    3. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    5. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    6. Binder, Carola, 2017. "Consumer forecast revisions: Is information really so sticky?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 112-115.
    7. Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Rachel Pomerantz & Daphne Skandalis & Kyle Smith & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2020. "How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Reports 949, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    10. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    11. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2021. "The Bureau for Economic Research's inflation expectations surveys: Know your data," Working Papers 10/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    13. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
    14. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.

  13. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 157-167, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    4. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    5. Baumann, Ursel & Gomez-Salvador, Ramon & Seitz, Franz, 2019. "Detecting turning points in global economic activity," Working Paper Series 2310, European Central Bank.
    6. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Morais, Igor Alexandre C. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "Leading Indicators for the Capital Goods Industry," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(1), March.
    8. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.

  15. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Re-Examining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 341-367, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
    5. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    7. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large-scale mixture innovation models," Papers 1607.04532, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    8. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
    9. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    10. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    11. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
    12. Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," MPRA Paper 100164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Smith, Simon C., 2017. "Equity premium estimates from economic fundamentals under structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-61.
    14. Thomas Windberger & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Janette Walde, 2012. "Dirty floating and monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe - The role of structural breaks," Working Papers 2012-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    15. Mark Fisher & Mark J. Jensen, 2018. "Bayesian Inference and Prediction of a Multiple-Change-Point Panel Model with Nonparametric Priors," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 87972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
    18. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2020. "Modeling Turning Points In Global Equity Market," DEM Working Papers Series 195, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
    20. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    21. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
    22. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    23. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    25. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    26. Chao Du & Chu-Lan Michael Kao & S. C. Kou, 2016. "Stepwise Signal Extraction via Marginal Likelihood," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 314-330, March.
    27. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    28. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    29. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    30. Eo, Yunjong & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2012. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?," Working Papers 2012-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    31. Chatzitzisi, Evanthia & Fountas, Stilianos & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Another look at calendar anomalies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
    32. He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2628-2640, November.
    33. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
    34. Kim, Jaeho, 2015. "Bayesian Inference in a Non-linear/Non-Gaussian Switching State Space Model: Regime-dependent Leverage Effect in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 67153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & So, Mike K.P. & Lee, Kevin K.M., 2011. "Classification in segmented regression problems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 2276-2287, July.
    36. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    37. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2011. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," CAMA Working Papers 2011-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    38. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 24_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    39. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    40. Dellas, Harris & Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2018. "The macroeconomic and fiscal implications of inflation forecast errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 203-217.
    41. Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    43. Mwasi Paza Mboya & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2023. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of discrete structural breaks under long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1889-1908, November.
    44. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    45. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Robust Forecast Methods and Monitoring during Structural Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 3-27, October.
    46. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    47. Smith, Simon C., 2022. "Time-variation, multiple testing, and the factor zoo," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    48. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2020. "Bayesian Modelling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 2308, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2023.
    49. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    50. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Illiquidity shocks and the comovement between stocks: New evidence using smooth transition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-15.
    51. Hubrich, Kirstin & González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
    52. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    53. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    54. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print hal-00732535, HAL.
    55. Bognanni, Mark & Zito, John, 2020. "Sequential Bayesian inference for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    56. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
    57. Chiara Perricone, 2013. "Clustering Macroeconomic Variables," CEIS Research Paper 283, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jun 2013.
    58. DESCHAMPS, Philippe J., 2016. "Bayesian Semiparametric Forecasts of Real Interest Rate Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2016050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    59. Alessandra Canepa, & Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2022. "Forecasting Ination: A GARCH-in-Mean-Level Model with Time Varying Predictability," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202212, University of Turin.
    60. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
    61. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts: Theory and Applications to S&P 500 and NASDAQ Return Indices," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    62. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    63. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
    65. Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A new model of trend inflation," MPRA Paper 39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Olusanya E. Olubusoye & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2015. "Time Series Analysis of Persistence in Crude Oil Price Volatility across Bull and Bear Regimes," Working Papers 201580, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    67. Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2017. "Does Competition Prevent Industrial Pollution? Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model," MPRA Paper 85177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Kin-Yip Ho & Yanlin Shi & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2016. "It takes two to tango: A regime-switching analysis of the correlation dynamics between the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 41-65, February.
    69. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 805-820, August.
    70. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    71. Kirsten Thompson & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 486-501, May.
    72. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    73. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2018-014, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    74. Arnaud Dufays & Zhuo Li & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Yong Song, 2021. "Sparse change‐point VAR models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 703-727, September.
    75. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-32, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    76. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar Author-Name-First Mehmet & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 15-08, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    77. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2010. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," NBER Working Papers 15920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    78. Jordi Maas, 2014. "Forecasting inflation using time-varying Bayesian model averaging," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(3), pages 149-182, August.
    79. Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "Ination Dynamics and Time-Varying Persistence: The Importance of the Uncertainty Channel," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202211, University of Turin.
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    81. Hirano, Keisuke & Wright, Jonathan H., 2022. "Analyzing cross-validation for forecasting with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 139-154.
    82. Mónica Correa-López & Matías Pacce & Kathi Schlepper, 2019. "Exploring trend inFLation dynamics in Euro Area countries," Working Papers 1909, Banco de España.
    83. Ardia, David & Dufays, Arnaud & Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2023. "Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods," MPRA Paper 119486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    84. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    85. Smith, Simon C. & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Variable selection in panel models with breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 323-344.
    86. Patricia Chelley‐Steeley & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2019. "Sentiment, order imbalance, and co‐movement: An examination of shocks to retail and institutional trading activity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(1), pages 116-159, January.
    87. Jesús Mur & Fernando López & Ana Angulo, 2009. "Testing the hypothesis of stability in spatial econometric models," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 409-444, June.
    88. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber, 2020. "Real-time Inflation Forecasting Using Non-linear Dimension Reduction Techniques," Papers 2012.08155, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    89. Angelia L. Grant, 2017. "The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 224-232, January.
    90. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    91. Hultblad, Brigitta & Karlsson, Sune, 2006. "Bayesian simultaneous determination of structural breaks and lag lengths," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 630, Stockholm School of Economics.
    92. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    93. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    94. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    95. Simon C. Smith, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 412-429, July.
    96. Juergen Amann & Paul Middleditch, 2017. "Growth in a time of austerity: evidence from the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 349-375, September.
    97. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    98. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Macroeconomic factors strike back: A Bayesian change-point model of time-varying risk exposures and premia in the U.S. cross-section," Working Paper 2013/19, Norges Bank.
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    103. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    104. Pretnar, Nick & Olivola, Christopher Y. & Montgomery, Alan, 2021. "Two-stage Budgeting with Bounded Rationality," MPRA Paper 105356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    106. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models," Staff Reports 285, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    107. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    108. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
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    111. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
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    4. Fu, Shihe & Liao, Yu & Zhang, Junfu, 2015. "The effect of housing wealth on labor force participation: evidence from China," MPRA Paper 69559, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Feb 2016.
    5. Yao Lu & Julia Shu-Huah Wang & Wen-Jui Han, 2017. "Women’s Short-Term Employment Trajectories Following Birth: Patterns, Determinants, and Variations by Race/Ethnicity and Nativity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 93-118, February.
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    7. Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Comment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 414-424.
    8. Aslim, Erkmen Giray & Panovska, Irina & Taş, M. Anıl, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of maternity leave legislation in emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
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    39. Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.
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    41. Aurora Indra Putri, 2012. "Employment absorption in manufacturing industry: Yogyakarta case," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 4(2), pages 199-209, April.
    42. Bruce Fallick & Charles Fleischman & Jonathan Pingle, 2010. "The Effect of Population Aging on the Aggregate Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 377-417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2009. "Changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 94(4).
    44. Popov, Alexander & Zaharia, Sonia, 2019. "Credit market competition and the gender gap in labor force participation: Evidence from local markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 25-59.
    45. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2009. "Decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    46. Hendricks, Lutz, 2016. "Accounting for changing returns to experience," CFS Working Paper Series 558, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    47. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    48. Huang, Naqun & Ning, Guangjie & Rong, Zhao, 2022. "Destination homeownership and labor force participation: Evidence from rural-to-urban migrants in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    49. Younghwan Song & Jia Gao, 2023. "Do fathers have son preference in the United States? Evidence from paternal subjective well-being," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 1083-1117, September.
    50. Macunovich, Diane J., 2009. "Reversals in the Patterns of Women's Labor Supply in the U.S., 1976-2009," IZA Discussion Papers 4512, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    51. Quigley, John M. & Raphael, Steven, 2008. "Neighborhoods, Economic Self-Sufficiency, and the MTO Program," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt1nd2t0pw, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    52. Joni Hersch, 2013. "Opting out among women with elite education," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 469-506, December.
    53. Maggie R. Jones, 2014. "The EITC over the business cycle: Who benefits?," CARRA Working Papers 2014-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    54. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    55. Richard Rogerson, 2014. "Comment on "Labor Market Polarization over the Business Cycle"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 414-424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Rowena A Pecchenino & Julie Byrne, 2017. "Heigh Ho, Heigh Ho:The Way We (Would Like to) Work Now," Economics Department Working Paper Series n282-17.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    57. Seonglim Lee & Jinkook Lee & Yunhee Chang, 2011. "What is the Cost of Married Women's Paid Work?," Working Papers WR-830, RAND Corporation.
    58. Dio Caisar DARMA & Jati KASUMA & Muhammad IKBAL, 2020. "Employment Absorption: Elasticity in the Industry and Services Sector in Indonesia," Management and Economics Review, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 5(1), pages 125-135, June.
    59. Steinhauer, Andreas & Bíró, Anikó & Dieterle, Steven, 2019. "Motherhood Timing and the Child Penalty: Bounding the Returns to Delay," CEPR Discussion Papers 13732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Néstor Iván GONZALEZ-QUINTERO & Nancy Aireth DAZA-BAEZ & Nidia Esperanza GARAVITO-CALDERON, 2014. "Determinantes y perfiles de la participación laboral en Colombia: 2002-2013," Archivos de Economía 11788, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
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    1. Adam J. Check & Anna K Nolan & Tyler C. Schipper, 2019. "Forecasting GDP Growth using Disaggregated GDP Revisions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2580-2588.
    2. Doojav Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam Davaajargal, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Mongolia: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-48, January.
    3. Randall, Alan & Chen, Ding-Rong, 2011. "A Better Approach to Resolving Variable Selection Uncertainty in Meta Analysis for Benefits Transfer," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114788, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    6. T. Ando & R. S. Tsay, 2009. "‘Model selection for generalized linear models with factor‐augmented predictors’," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 243-246, May.
    7. Maehashi, Kohei & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using factor models and machine learning: an application to Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    9. Annalisa Cadonna & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2019. "Triple the gamma -- A unifying shrinkage prior for variance and variable selection in sparse state space and TVP models," Papers 1912.03100, arXiv.org.
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    12. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2014. "Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1436, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2015.
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    45. Massimiliano Serati & Andrea Venegoni, 2018. "Drivers of migration flows for companies: an integrated analysis," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 72(3), pages 53-64, July-Sept.
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    55. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    56. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    58. Sakar Hasan Hamza & Qingna Li, 2023. "The Dynamics of US Gasoline Demand and Its Prediction: An Extended Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.
    59. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Vogel & W. Hubert Keen, 2010. "Public Higher Education and New York State’s Economy," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 24(4), pages 384-393, November.
    2. James A. Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 2004. "New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    3. Jason Bram & James A. Orr, 2006. "Taking the pulse of the New York City economy," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(May).

  22. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).

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    119. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2018. "Technology and Occupations in Business Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    120. Azad Haider, 2010. "Can Sectoral Re-allocation Explain the Jobless Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 705-718.
    121. Johannes Wieland & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2015. "Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    122. Tase, Manjola, 2019. "Sectoral dynamics and business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 60-63.
    123. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 5-33.
    124. Alexandre Ounnas, 2020. "Job Polarization and the Labor Market: A Worker Flow Analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    125. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Der erste Schwung ist vorüber," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 61(2), pages 5-36.
    126. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper series 27_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    127. Mitman, Kurt & Rabinovich, Stanislav, 2019. "Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    128. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    129. Shanshan Liu & Thomas J. Hyclak & Krishna Regmi, 2016. "Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(1), pages 18-37, March.
    130. Jamie Peck & Nik Theodore, 2007. "Flexible recession: the temporary staffing industry and mediated work in the United States," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(2), pages 171-192, March.
    131. Arijit Mukherjee & Yingyi Tsai, 2010. "International Outsourcing And Welfare Reduction: An Entry‐Deterrence Story," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 647-659, December.
    132. Manjola Tase, 2016. "Sectoral Dynamics and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    133. Kurt Mitman & Stanislav Rabinovich, 2014. "Unemployment Benefit Extensions Caused Jobless Recoveries!?," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    134. Kurose, Kazuhiro, 2009. "The relation between the speed of demand saturation and the dynamism of the labour market," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 151-159, June.
    135. Jonathan A. Schwabish, 2006. "Earnings Inequality and High Earners: Changes During and after the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s: Working Paper 2006-06," Working Papers 17738, Congressional Budget Office.
    136. MeiChi Huang, 2014. "Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 589-608, October.
    137. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.

  23. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Endogenous Delay Threshold Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 93-103, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter & Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 205-232.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2002. "Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-253, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    3. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    4. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    5. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    6. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    7. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    8. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    9. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    10. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    11. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    12. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng & Wu, Chongfeng, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns: A time-dependent weighted least squares approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
    20. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    21. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.

  26. James J. McAndrews & Simon M. Potter, 2002. "Liquidity effects of the events of September 11, 2001," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(Nov), pages 59-79.

    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Sultan, 2012. "Options on federal funds futures and interest rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 330-359, April.
    2. Gara M. Afonso, 2008. "Liquidity and congestion," Staff Reports 349, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Ilhyock Shim & Goetz von Peter, 2007. "Distress selling and asset market feedback," BIS Working Papers 229, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Gara Minguez Afonso, 2008. "Liquidity and Congestion," 2008 Meeting Papers 926, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Adam Ashcraft & Darrell Duffie, 2007. "Over the Counter Search Frictions: A Case Study of the Federal Funds Market," 2007 Meeting Papers 999, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004. "Interbank Exposures : An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Other publications TiSEM 24d7f8a9-0f7c-411a-843c-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Colliard , Jean-Edouard & Perignon , Christophe, 2015. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," HEC Research Papers Series 1088, HEC Paris.
    8. Xavier Freixas, 2009. "Monetary policy in a systemic crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 630-653, Winter.
    9. Denbee, Edward & Garratt, Rodney & Zimmerman, Peter, 2014. "Variations in liquidity provision in real-time payment systems," Bank of England working papers 513, Bank of England.
    10. Tallman, Ellis W. & Moen, Jon R., 2012. "Liquidity creation without a central bank: Clearing house loan certificates in the banking panic of 1907," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 277-291.
    11. Lester Benjamin, 2009. "Settlement Systems," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, May.
    12. Mohammad M Rahaman, 2016. "Chinese import competition and the provisions for external debt financing in the US," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(8), pages 898-928, October.
    13. Charles M. Kahn & William Roberds, 2009. "Payments Settlement: Tiering in Private and Public Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 855-884, August.
    14. Jon R. Moen & Ellis W. Tallman, 2007. "Liquidity creation without a lender of last resort: clearinghouse loan certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Constanza Martínez & Freddy Cepeda, 2015. "Reaction Functions of the Participants in Colombia’s Large-value Payment System," Borradores de Economia 12651, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Morten L. Bech & Rodney J. Garratt, 2012. "Illiquidity in the Interbank Payment System Following Wide-Scale Disruptions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 903-929, August.
    17. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    18. Biliana Alexandrova Kabadjova & Anton Badev & Saulo Benchimol Bastos & Evangelos Benos & Freddy Cepeda- Lopéz & James Chapman & Martin Diehl & Ioana Duca-Radu & Rodney Garratt & Ronald Heijmans & Anne, 2023. "Intraday liquidity around the world," BIS Working Papers 1089, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Anna Kovner & Michael Junho Lee, 2020. "Cyber Risk and the U.S. Financial System: A Pre-Mortem Analysis," Staff Reports 909, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Gara M. Afonso & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Precautionary Demand and Liquidity in Payment Systems," Staff Reports 352, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Luca Arciero & Claudia Biancotti & Leandro D'Aurizio & Claudio Impenna, 2009. "Exploring Agent-Based Methods for the Analysis of Payment Systems: A Crisis Model for StarLogo TNG," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-2.
    22. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Huang, Haizhou, 2005. "The lender of last resort," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1059-1082, May.
    23. Jeffrey M. Lacker, 2003. "Payment system disruptions and the Federal Reserve following September 11, 2001," Working Paper 03-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    24. Rodney J. Garratt & Zhentong Lu & Phoebe Tian, 2023. "How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System," Staff Working Papers 23-26, Bank of Canada.
    25. Merrouche, Ouarda & Schanz, Jochen, 2009. "Banks' intraday liquidity management during operational outages: theory and evidence from the UK payment system," Bank of England working papers 370, Bank of England.
    26. Morten L. Bech & Walter E. Beyeler & Robert J. Glass & Kimmo Soramaki, 2006. "Congestion and cascades in payment systems," Staff Reports 259, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Morten L. Bech & Antoine Martin & James J. McAndrews, 2012. "Settlement liquidity and monetary policy implementation—lessons from the financial crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Mar), pages 3-20.
    28. Kahn, Charles M. & Roberds, William, 2009. "Why pay? An introduction to payments economics," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.
    29. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
    30. Todd Keister & Antoine Martin & James J. McAndrews, 2008. "Divorcing money from monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Sep), pages 41-56.
    31. Neville Arjani, 2006. "Examining the Trade-Off between Settlement Delay and Intraday Liquidity in Canada's LVTS: A Simulation Approach," Staff Working Papers 06-20, Bank of Canada.
    32. Anneke Kosse & Zhentong Lu, 2022. "Transmission of Cyber Risk Through the Canadian Wholesale Payment System," Staff Working Papers 22-23, Bank of Canada.
    33. Constanza Martínez & Freddy Cepeda, 2016. "Free-riding on Liquidity in the Colombian LVPS," Borradores de Economia 977, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    34. Hellqvist, Matti & Laine, Tatu (ed.), 2012. "Diagnostics for the financial markets: computational studies of payment system: Simulator Seminar Proceedings 2009-2011," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_045.
    35. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," NBER Working Papers 9956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  27. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-38.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2001. "Nonlinear Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 621-646, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Potter Simon M., 2000. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.

    Cited by:

    1. David Nawrocki & Tonis Vaga, 2014. "A bifurcation model of market returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 509-528, March.
    2. Silvio John, Camilleri & Nicolanne, Scicluna & Ye, Bai, 2019. "Do Stock Markets Lead or Lag Macroeconomic Variables? Evidence from Select European Countries," MPRA Paper 95299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Heidari , Hassan & Refah-Kahriz, Arash & Hashemi Berenjabadi, Nayyer, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Return Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Multivariate MS ARMA GARCH Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 5(2), pages 223-250, August.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    5. Costa, Carlos Eugênio da & Issler, João Victor & Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino, 2009. "The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 697, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    7. Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David G. McMillan & Fiona J. McMillan, 2020. "Is there a risk and return relation?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1075-1101, July.
    8. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    9. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    11. Michael DeStefano, 2004. "Stock Returns and the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 527-547, November.
    12. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Global evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-391.
    13. José P. Dapena & Juan A. Serur & Julián R. Siri, 2019. "A model free approach to the pricing of downside risk in argentinean stocks," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 703, Universidad del CEMA.
    14. Hess, Martin K., 2003. "What drives Markov regime-switching behavior of stock markets? The Swiss case," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 527-543.
    15. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society.
    16. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    17. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    18. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2001. "Nonlinear Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 621-646, September.
    19. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    20. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    21. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578.
    22. Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2023. "Identification and Forecasting of Bull and Bear Markets using Multivariate Returns," MPRA Paper 119515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "The determinants of a simultaneous crash in gold and stock markets: An ordered logit approach," Discussion Papers 1603, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    24. XiaoJiao Li & Ei Thuzar Than & Rizwan Ahmed & Maria Ishaque & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2023. "Gender diversity of boards and executives on real earnings management in the bull or bear period: Empirical evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2753-2771, July.
    25. Warren Thomson, 2016. "Influence of market states on industry returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134, March.
    26. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
    27. Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-17, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    28. Thillaikkoothan Palanichamy & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "Multiple Dimensions of Cyclicality in Investing," Working Papers 2022-216, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    29. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    30. Jian, Zhihong & Lu, Haisong & Zhu, Zhican & Xu, Huiling, 2023. "Frequency heterogeneity of tail connectedness: Evidence from global stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    31. Perez-Quiros, G. & Timmermann, A., 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," Papers 58, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    32. Hanna, Alan J. & Turner, John D. & Walker, Clive B., 2017. "News media and investor sentiment over the long run," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2017-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    33. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2010. "Components of bull and bear markets: bull corrections and bear rallies," Working Papers tecipa-402, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    35. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    36. Julian, Inchauspe & Helen, Cabalu, 2013. "What Drives the Shanghai Stock Market? An Examination of its Linkage to Macroeconomic Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 93049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Bertrand Candelon & Jameel Ahmed & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Working Papers 2014-409, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    38. Ioannidis, C. & Peel, D.A. & Matthews, K.P.G., 2006. "Expected stock returns, aggregate consumption and wealth: Some further empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 439-445, June.
    39. Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204.
    40. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond, 2010. "Gold and Financial Assets: Are There Any Safe Havens in Bear Markets?," Working Papers 2010-13, CEPII research center.
    41. Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
    42. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
    43. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    44. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    45. Dikaios Tserkezos & Eleni Thanou, 2007. "Conventional Nonlinear Relationships between GDP, Inflation and Stock Market Returns. An Investigation for the Greek Economy," Working Papers 0731, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    46. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2023. "Not all bull and bear markets are alike: insights from a five-state hidden semi-Markov model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
    47. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2001. "Latent Leading and Coincident Factors Model with Markov-Switching Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-13.
    48. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    49. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    50. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
    51. Sven Fürth & Christian Rauch, 2015. "Fare Thee Well? An Analysis of Buyout Funds’ Exit Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(4), pages 811-849, October.
    52. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
    53. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & João Cruz, 2018. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Working Papers w201814, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    56. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    57. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    58. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    59. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Kuan-Mien Hsieh, 2012. "Industry herding and market states: evidence from Chinese stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1091-1113, October.
    60. Ntantamis, Christos & Zhou, Jun, 2015. "Bull and bear markets in commodity prices and commodity stocks: Is there a relation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 61-81.
    61. Bejaoui, Azza & Karaa, Adel, 2016. "Revisiting the bull and bear markets notions in the Tunisian stock market: New evidence from multi-state duration-dependence Markov-switching models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 529-545.
    62. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    63. Zhang, Qun & Zhang, Peihui & Liu, Hao, 2023. "Does expected idiosyncratic skewness of firms' profit predict the cross-section of stock returns? Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    64. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
    65. Zhang, Yiting & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Wong, Jian Cheng & Kok, Jun Liang & Prusty, Manamohan & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2011. "Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2020-2050.
    66. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578, April.
    67. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    68. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.
    69. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    70. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
    71. Vanden, Joel M., 2005. "Equilibrium analysis of volatility clustering," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 374-417, June.
    72. Eric Girardin & Zhenya Liu, 2003. "The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 57-70.

  32. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
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  34. Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Dec).

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Ong & Matthew R. Graham, 2007. "Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Dual Jobholders," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2007-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2007. "How well does employment predict output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Sep), pages 433-446.
    3. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger & Kristin Sandusky & James Spletzer, 2009. "Exploring Differences in Employment between Household and Establishment Data," NBER Working Papers 14805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
    7. Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 90(Q 2), pages 1-23.

  35. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.

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    1. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, "undated". "Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M model," Discussion Papers 99/4, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    3. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Endogenous Delay Threshold Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 93-103, January.
    4. Doppelhofer, G. & Cuaresma, J.C., 2007. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2002. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modelling Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. John W. Schindler, 2001. "Testing optimality in job search models," International Finance Discussion Papers 710, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2008. "Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-274, March.
    9. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    10. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    11. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    12. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Henry, O.T. & Summers, P.M., 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 738, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    16. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
    17. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1128-1144, July.
    18. C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    19. Brock, William A., 2000. "Whither nonlinear?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 663-678, June.
    20. Man-Suk Oh & Dong Wan Shin, 2002. "Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for possibly asymmetric and non-stationary time series using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 771-789.
    21. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
    22. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael Martin, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Continuous Time Models of the Australian Short Rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    23. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Shocks in Germany, The U.K. and, The U.S.: A VAR-GARCH-M Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1_2), pages 65-85, February.
    24. Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    25. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, October.
    26. Petros Dellaportas & David G. T. Denison & Chris Holmes, 2007. "Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 419-437.
    27. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    28. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    29. Penelope Smith, 2006. "Bayesian Inference for a Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    30. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2008. "Forecasting Realized Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers tecipa-313, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    31. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of \"business cycles\"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  37. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.

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    1. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2021. "On the economic impact of aggregate liquidity shocks: The case of the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 737-752.
    2. Cervini-Plá, María & Silva, José I. & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Labor disruption costs and real wages cyclicality," MPRA Paper 42366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    4. Teona Shugliashvili, 2023. "The words have power: the impact of news on exchange rates," FFA Working Papers 5.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    5. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "How Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect the Global Financial Markets?: Evaluating Policy Effects by Global VAR Models," Discussion papers 19031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Andrey Sinyakov, 2013. "Declared and actual policy of the Russian Central Bank in 2000–2008: how large is the difference? (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 91-106, December.
    7. Fuentes Vélez, Mariana & Pinilla Barrera, Alejandro, 2021. "Transmisión de volatilidad en el Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA): una evidencia del grado de integración. || Transmission of volatility in the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA): evidenc," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 31(1), pages 301-328, June.
    8. Andreas Georgantopoulos, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Analysis and Forecasts using VAR/VEC Approach for Greece with Capital Formation," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 263-278.
    9. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    10. Andrea Cipollini & Fabio Parla, 2018. "Housing Market Shocks in Italy: a GVAR approach," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0069, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    11. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2019. "EMU-Risk Synchronisation and Financial Fragility Through the Prism of Dynamic Connectedness," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-07, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    12. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Spillover and risk transmission between the term structure of the US interest rates and Islamic equities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Kamal, Javed Bin & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2022. "Asymmetric connectedness between cryptocurrency environment attention index and green assets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    14. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete, 2016. "Measuring the Monetary Policy’s Structural Credibility by the Expected Inflation Determinants: a Kalman Filter Approach for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
    15. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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    18. Chen, Jing & Han, Qian & Ryu, Doojin & Tang, Jing, 2022. "Does the world smile together? A network analysis of global index option implied volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness between Asian electricity sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 208-224.
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    25. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    26. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    27. James Payne, 2003. "Shocks to macroeconomic state variables and the risk premium of REITs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 671-677.
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    29. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2017. "Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1529-1552, December.
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    33. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi & Gambetti, Luca, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova, 2013. "Evaluating the Links Between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2013/10, Czech National Bank.
    35. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 15928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Ki-Hong Choi & Ron P. McIver & Salvatore Ferraro & Lei Xu & Sang Hoon Kang, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillover and network connectedness across ASX sector markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 677-691, October.
    37. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through on Prices in Macrodata: A Comparative Sensitivity Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 8867, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    38. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Andreas Yiannopoulos, 2013. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A VECMX Analysis," Working Papers 1302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    39. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Naifar, Nader & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: Fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    40. Urom, Christian & Mzoughi, Hela & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "Directional predictability and time-frequency spillovers among clean energy sectors and oil price uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 326-341.
    41. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    42. Canto, Bea & Kräussl, Roman, 2007. "Electronic trading systems and intraday non-linear dynamics: An examination of the FTSE 100 cash and futures returns," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    Cited by:

    1. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Revisited: An Application of Non-linear Unit Root Test," International Finance 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kian-Ping Lim & M. Azali & M.S. Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "Are Non-Linear Dynamics a Universal Occurrence? Further Evidence From Asian Stock Markets," Finance 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Paolo Andreini & Cosimo Izzo & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "Deep Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 2007.11887, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    4. Giampiero Gallo & Barbara Pacini, 2000. "The effects of trading activity on market volatility," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 163-175.
    5. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2001. "Nonlinear Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 621-646, September.
    6. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Inflation Asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A. & Georgopoulos, E. F. & Likothanassis, S. D., 1998. "Forecasting Exchange-Rates via Local Approximation Methods and Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 17764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & André de Mattos Marques, 2013. "Testing absolute PPP hypothesis for twenty countries through the skeleton from a SETAR model- some new evidence," Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) 16, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba.
    9. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA.
    10. Gianluca Mattarocci, 2009. "Market Characteristics and Chaos Dynamics in Stock Markets: an International Comparison," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Alessandro Carretta & Franco Fiordelisi & Gianluca Mattarocci (ed.), New Drivers of Performance in a Changing Financial World, chapter 6, pages 89-106, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Kian-Ping Lim & Hock-Ann Lee & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets: a Revisit," Finance 0308003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ooms, M., 2008. "Trends in Applied Econometrics Software Development 1985-2008, an analysis of Journal of Applied Econometrics research articles, software reviews, data and code," Serie Research Memoranda 0021, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "Testing for Non-Linearity in ASEAN Financial Markets," Finance 0308002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2009. "Is There Any International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 392-406.
    15. Wu, Berlin, 1995. "Model-free forecasting for nonlinear time series (with application to exchange rates)," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 433-459, April.
    16. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2003. "Forecasting Performance of Logistic STAR Exchange Rate Model: The Original and Reparameterised Versions," GE, Growth, Math methods 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bettina Becker & Stephan G Hall, 2005. "Non-Linear Properties of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 13, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece.
    20. K.P. Lim & M.J. Hinich & K.S. Liew, 2003. "GARCH Diagnosis with Portmanteau Bicorrelation Test: An Application on the Malaysia's Stock Market," Finance 0307013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jean-Paul Chavas & Salvatore Falco, 2017. "Resilience, Weather and Dynamic Adjustments in Agroecosystems: The Case of Wheat Yield in England," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(2), pages 297-320, June.
    22. Markus Vogl, 2022. "Quantitative modelling frontiers: a literature review on the evolution in financial and risk modelling after the financial crisis (2008–2019)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-69, December.
    23. Brock,W.A., 2000. "Chaos theory," Working papers 8, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

Chapters

  1. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Vedolin, Andrea & Maenhout, Pascal & Xing, Hao, 2020. "Generalized Robustness and Dynamic Pessimism," CEPR Discussion Papers 14592, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    4. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    5. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2019. "Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data," KOF Working papers 19-463, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    9. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    10. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    11. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    13. Raul Ibarra & Luis M. Gomez-Zamudio, 2017. "Are Daily Financial Data Useful for Forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 173-203, April.
    14. Elliott, Graham & Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2015. "Complete subset regressions with large-dimensional sets of predictors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 86-110.
    15. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    16. Ghulame Rubbaniy & Ali Awais Khalid & Stathis Polyzos & Balqees Naser Almessabi, 2022. "Cyclicality of capital adequacy ratios in heterogeneous environment: A nonlinear panel smooth transition regression explanation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1960-1979, September.
    17. Pascal J. Maenhout & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Xing, 2020. "Generalized Robustness and Dynamic Pessimism," NBER Working Papers 26970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle," Munich Reprints in Economics 84736, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    19. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    20. Lunsford, Kurt G., 2015. "Forecasting residential investment in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 276-285.
    21. Baghestani, Hamid & AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., 2017. "Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 47-56.

  2. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2006. "The Vector Floor and Ceiling Model," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 97-131, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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