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Spillover Dynamics Across Price Inflation and Selected Agricultural Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    () (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Festus Victor Bekun

    () (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

Abstract

This article contributes to the existing empirical literature by examining the spillovers across price inflation and agricultural commodity prices in the case of Nigeria. To achieve this objective, we employ the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index. Subsequently, we examine the directional spillover, total spillover, and net spillover indexes. Further analysis to capture cyclical and secular movements were addressed with 40 months of subsamples via the rolling window analysis. Our empirical results, based on the monthly frequency data from January 2006 to July 2016 show that the total spillover effect was about 75%. This suggests a high interconnectedness of the selected agricultural commodity prices and inflation. Our study further reveal that inflation, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat were net receivers while cocoa, barley, groundnut, maize, rice were net givers. We find a negative net spillover for price inflation, implying a net positive spillover from commodity prices to price inflation These outcomes have inherent policy implications for the government administrators, farmers, investors and all stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Festus Victor Bekun, 2018. "Spillover Dynamics Across Price Inflation and Selected Agricultural Commodity Prices," Working Papers 15-42, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-42.pdf
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    File URL: http://repec.economics.emu.edu.tr/RePEc/emu/wpaper/15-42.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Vanessa Kasongo & Clement Kyei, 2014. "The Relationship between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Quantile Causality Approach," Working Papers 201468, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Nishimura, Yusaku & Tsutsui, Yoshiro & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2015. "Intraday return and volatility spillover mechanism from Chinese to Japanese stock market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-42.
    4. Duncan, Andrew S. & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 566-573.
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    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
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    11. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2010. "Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 303-320, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Agricultural commodity prices; inflation; VAR model; forecast error variance; price spillover; Nigeria.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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