IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v314y2025ics0360544224038854.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying influence pathways of oil price shocks on inflation based on impulse response networks

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Yiran
  • Gao, Xiangyun
  • Zheng, Huiling
  • Zhang, Yupeng
  • Sun, Qingru
  • Wang, Anjian
  • An, HaiZhong

Abstract

This study examines the impact of international crude oil prices on national sub-price indices following external shocks. It analyzes the heterogeneous transmission mechanisms of these shocks across diverse national price index networks. To achieve this, we employ Granger causality tests as the filter to construct impulse response networks. This approach helps unveil the duration, magnitude, and pathways of impact on sub-price indices in five countries: China, the US, Russia, Germany, and the UK. Our findings suggest that the impact of crude oil price changes on national sub-price indices is most pronounced within 1–2 months, and more persistent on the Producer Price Index (PPI) than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Identifying specific sub-price indices affected by shocks shows that China and the US are more significantly impacted. Moreover, identifying the transmission paths of crude oil price changes within a country's internal price system underscores the significance of the CPI of transportation. This study of price transmission within countries offers key insights for managing economic shocks at the microeconomic level.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Yiran & Gao, Xiangyun & Zheng, Huiling & Zhang, Yupeng & Sun, Qingru & Wang, Anjian & An, HaiZhong, 2025. "Identifying influence pathways of oil price shocks on inflation based on impulse response networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:314:y:2025:i:c:s0360544224038854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.134107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224038854
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.134107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2021. "Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Dong, Di & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi & Liu, Xueyong, 2018. "Factors affecting the formation of copper international trade community: Based on resource dependence and network theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 167-185.
    3. Nan, Yu & Sun, Renjin & Zhen, Zhao & Fangjing, Chu, 2022. "Measurement of international crude oil price cyclical fluctuations and correlation with the world economic cyclical changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    5. Darrick Evensen & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Patrick Devine-Wright & Jen Dickie & Phil Bartie & Colin Foad & Mike Bradshaw & Stacia Ryder & Adam Mayer & Adam Varley, 2023. "Growing importance of climate change beliefs for attitudes towards gas," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 240-243, March.
    6. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    7. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    9. He, Shuying & Guo, Kun, 2021. "What factors contribute to the mutual dependence degree of China in its crude oil trading relationship with oil-exporting countries?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    10. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    11. Sun, Yiguo & Li, Delong & Suo, Chenyi & Wang, Yu, 2023. "A threshold effect of COVID-19 risk on oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Lim Thye Goh & Siong Hook Law & Irwan Trinugroho, 2022. "Do Oil Price Fluctuations Affect The Inflation Rate In Indonesia Asymmetrically?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(04), pages 1333-1353, June.
    13. ElFayoumi, Khalid, 2018. "The balance sheet effects of oil market shocks: An industry level analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 112-127.
    14. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    15. Georgios Antonios Sarantitis & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas, 2018. "A Network Analysis of the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 173-193, February.
    16. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    17. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from a large panel of 45 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    19. Jinqi Su & Ke Su & Shubin Wang, 2021. "Does the Digital Economy Promote Industrial Structural Upgrading?—A Test of Mediating Effects Based on Heterogeneous Technological Innovation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-24, September.
    20. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Zhao, Wan-Li & Fan, Ying, 2020. "Modelling dynamic dependence and risk spillover between all oil price shocks and stock market returns in the BRICS," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    22. Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2020. "The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China's inflation: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    23. Castro, César & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2017. "Oil price pass-through along the price chain in the euro area," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 24-30.
    24. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    25. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    26. Ma, Yu & Zhang, Yang & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Do oil shocks affect Chinese bank risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    27. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
    28. Shaobo Long & Jun Liang, 2018. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of global crude oil price to China’s PPI and CPI inflation," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 240-251, January.
    29. Florinda Martins & Carlos Felgueiras & Miroslava Smitkova & Nídia Caetano, 2019. "Analysis of Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption and Environmental Impacts in European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-11, March.
    30. Deluna, Roperto S. & Loanzon, Jeanette Isabelle V. & Tatlonghari, Virgilio M., 2021. "A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    31. Qingru Sun & Xiangyun Gao & Ze Wang & Siyao Liu & Sui Guo & Yang Li, 2020. "Quantifying the risk of price fluctuations based on weighted Granger causality networks of consumer price indices: evidence from G7 countries," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 821-844, October.
    32. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Crude oil and stock markets: Causal relationships in tails?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-69.
    33. Siok Kun Sek, 2023. "A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1524-1547, August.
    34. Hou, Keqiang & Mountain, Dean C. & Wu, Ting, 2016. "Oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting economy: A VAR analysis informed by a DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 21-49.
    35. Zhaoyong Sun & Xinyu Cai & Wei-Chiao Huang, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Consumption, Output, and Investment in China’s Industrial Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    36. Fofana, Ismaél & Chitiga, Margaret & Mabugu, Ramos, 2009. "Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro-meso-micro analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5509-5518, December.
    37. Sadorsky, Perry, 2013. "Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-59.
    38. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    39. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    40. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    41. Wang, Xiao & Zhang, Chuanguo, 2014. "The impacts of global oil price shocks on China׳s fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 394-402.
    42. Wei, Yanfeng & Guo, Xiaoying, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 88-100.
    43. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.
    44. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    45. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Regime differences and industry heterogeneity of the volatility transmission from the energy price to the PPI," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 900-916.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meng Qin & Hongfang Jiang & Lidong Pang & Chiwei Su, 2025. "Is Oil Really a Stumbling Block to Environmental Sustainability? From the Price Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-17, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Zhang, Chuanguo & Mou, Xinjie & Ye, Shuping, 2022. "How do dynamic jumps in global crude oil prices impact China's industrial sector?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2025. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Inflation in Asia: What do We Learn from Empirical Studies?," MPRA Paper 123664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zhao, Zhao & Wen, Huwei & Li, Ke, 2021. "Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 780-788.
    5. Abubakar, Attahir B. & Karimu, Suale & Mamman, Suleiman O., 2024. "Inflation effects of oil and gas prices in the UK: Symmetries and asymmetries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    8. Pradeep, Siddhartha, 2022. "Impact of diesel price reforms on asymmetricity of oil price pass-through to inflation: Indian perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    9. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Moussa, Richard K. & Ousseini, Bouba & Taha, Cyrille K., 2024. "Asymmetric effects of oil prices on inflation in Côte d’Ivoire," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben & Mattoussi, Wided, 2023. "Oil price shocks in the age of surging inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Return and volatility connectedness among the BRICS stock and oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    13. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The connectedness in the world petroleum futures markets using a Quantile VAR approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Extant linkages between Shanghai crude oil and US energy futures: Insights from spillovers of higher-order moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Kalina, Irina & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "The relative response of Russian National Wealth Fund to oil demand, supply and risk shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    17. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    18. Obayelu, Abiodun & Ogunmola, Omotoso & Obayelu, Oluwakemi & Adeyemi, Oluwatosin, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Food Production Output in Oil Producing and Exporting Countries: The Case Study of Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315394, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Jinyu Chen & Xuehong Zhu, 2021. "The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3411-3434, September.
    20. Chen, Peng, 2015. "Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 284-294.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:314:y:2025:i:c:s0360544224038854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.