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The differential effects of climate risks on non-fossil and fossil fuel stock markets: Evidence from China

Author

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  • Zhu, Bo
  • Hu, Xin
  • Deng, Yuanyue
  • Zhang, Bokai
  • Li, Xiru

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of climate risks on the stock returns in China, differentiating between non-fossil and fossil fuel firms, using a time-varying parametric vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The news-based climate physical risk (CPR) and climate transition risk (CTR) indexes for China are constructed. The results show that both types of climate risks have time-varying and differential effects on the returns of non-fossil and fossil fuel stocks. The differential effects are associated with investor preference and cash-flow effects. Besides, CTR contributes more connectedness to the return premium between the two stock types than CPR.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Bo & Hu, Xin & Deng, Yuanyue & Zhang, Bokai & Li, Xiru, 2023. "The differential effects of climate risks on non-fossil and fossil fuel stock markets: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pb:s1544612323003343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103962
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    7. Qiuyue Zhang & Yili Lin & Yu Cao, 2024. "From Financialization to Sustainability: The Impact of Climate Risks on Shadow Banking Activities in Non-Financial Firms in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Shishi & Ding, Qian, 2024. "Does extreme climate change drive the connectedness among global gold markets? Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Tao, Ran & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "Does economic and climate policy uncertainty matter the oil market?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Wang Gao & Jiajia Wei & Shixiong Yang, 2023. "The Asymmetric Effects of Extreme Climate Risk Perception on Coal Futures Return Dynamics: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-In-Quantiles Tests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Dai, Bin & Wang, Honglei & Li, Bin & Li, Chengjiang & Tan, Zhukui, 2024. "Capacity model and optimal scheduling strategy of multi-microgrid based on shared energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    12. Fu, Yating & He, Lingyun & Xia, Yufei & Liu, Rongyan & Chen, Ling, 2025. "Asymmetric effects of media climate sentiment divergence on the volatility of green and grey energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Hu, Xin & Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Li, Xiru & Zeng, Lidan & Zhou, Sitong, 2024. "How does greenness translate into greenium? Evidence from China's green bonds," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Yongan Xu & Chao Liang, 2024. "Does extreme climate concern drive equity premiums? Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Liu, Junrong & Deng, Guoying & Yan, Jingzhou & Ma, Shibo, 2023. "Unraveling the impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate default risk: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    16. Rajendran, Hiridik & Kayal, Parthajit & Maiti, Moinak, 2024. "Is the U.S. energy independence and Security Act of 2022 associated with stock market volatility?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Wenqiang Zhu & Shouwei Li, 2024. "Nonlinear effects of climate risks on climate-sensitive sectors," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-31, October.
    18. Zhu, Wenqiang & Li, Shouwei & Su, Hongyu & Yang, Sitong, 2025. "Identification of systemic financial risks: The role of climate risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    20. Rong, Xueyun & Chen, Haixin & Liu, Shuhao, 2024. "Nonlinear impact of climate risks on renewable energy stocks in China: A moderating effects study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate physical risk; Climate transition risk; Non-fossil fuel stocks; Fossil fuel stocks; Varying parametric vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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