IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v75y2025ics1544612325001382.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do climate risks matter for intersectoral systemic risk spillovers? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Xin
  • Zhu, Bo

Abstract

This study examines how climate physical risk (CPR) and climate transition risk (CTR) influence systemic risk spillovers across China's economic and financial sectors. Using a quantile connectedness approach, we estimate the intersectoral risk spillovers. The results show that CTR significantly exacerbates these spillovers, particularly in energy-intensive sectors, while CPR's impact is less pronounced. Moreover, we uncover an interaction between CPR and CTR and show that CTR's effects intensify during periods of heightened economic policy uncertainty. These findings reveal climate risks' critical threat to economic and financial stability and suggest developing prudential regulations to mitigate climate-induced systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Xin & Zhu, Bo, 2025. "Do climate risks matter for intersectoral systemic risk spillovers? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325001382
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.106873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325001382
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.106873?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Zhu, Zongyuan & Luo, Qingtian, 2023. "Inter-industry risk spillover, role reversal, and economic stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Zhu, Wenqiang & Li, Shouwei & Su, Hongyu & Yang, Sitong, 2025. "Identification of systemic financial risks: The role of climate risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Fan, Qingzhu & Gao, Wang, 2024. "Climate risk and financial stability: The mediating effect of green credit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Ge, Zekun & Liu, Qian & Wei, Zi, 2024. "Assessment of bank risk exposure considering climate transition risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    7. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    9. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Li, Yueshan & Chen, Shoudong & Goodell, John W. & Yue, Dianmin & Liu, Xutang, 2023. "Sectoral spillovers and systemic risks: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    11. Ma, Dandan & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wan-Li & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change news on China's financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Zhang, Si Ying, 2022. "Are investors sensitive to climate-related transition and physical risks? Evidence from global stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Zhu, Bo & Hu, Xin & Deng, Yuanyue & Zhang, Bokai & Li, Xiru, 2023. "The differential effects of climate risks on non-fossil and fossil fuel stock markets: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    14. Chen, Deyang & Zeng, Zheyu & Chen, Yunyue, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of multiple climate policies on the chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Deng, Yuanyue & Li, Sijing, 2024. "Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    17. Lv, Wendai & Li, Bin, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from different sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    19. Zhang, Cheng & Li, Yana & Liang, Shuo, 2025. "Climate change attention and systemic financial risk: A TENET analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Yao, Xiaoyang & He, Wenjing & Li, Jianfeng & Le, Wei, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty through production networks: Evidence from the stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    21. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    22. Liu, Zhonglu & Li, Jun & Sun, Haibo, 2024. "Climate transition risk and bank risk-taking: The role of digital transformation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    23. Stolbova, Veronika & Monasterolo, Irene & Battiston, Stefano, 2018. "A Financial Macro-Network Approach to Climate Policy Evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 239-253.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Jiusheng & Wang, Xianning, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and the Chinese sectoral stock market: A multilayer network analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    2. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Celani, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Pagnottoni, Paolo, 2024. "The topological structure of panel variance decomposition networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Adeabah, David & Pham, Thu Phuong, 2025. "Asymmetric tail risk spillover and co-movement between climate risk and the international energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    6. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2022. "Climate change and financial stability: Natural disaster impacts on global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    7. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Batten, Jonathan & Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Nanaeva, Zhamal, 2024. "Metaverse and financial markets: A quantile-time-frequency connectedness analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    9. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    12. To Trung Thanh & Le Thanh Ha, 2025. "An application of a R2 dcomposed linkage method to explore a comtemporal and lead connectedness between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in vietnam," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 231-259, February.
    13. Madaleno, Mara & Taskin, Dilvin & Dogan, Eyup & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2023. "A dynamic connectedness analysis between rare earth prices and renewable energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Billah, Mabruk, 2025. "Unraveling financial interconnectedness: A quantile VAR model analysis of AI-based assets, sukuk, and islamic equity indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Gong, Xiao-Li & Zhao, Min & Wu, Zhuo-Cheng & Jia, Kai-Wen & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "Research on tail risk contagion in international energy markets—The quantile time-frequency volatility spillover perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Shishi & Ding, Qian, 2024. "Does extreme climate change drive the connectedness among global gold markets? Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Yanbin Li & Dan Nie & Bingkang Li & Xiyu Li, 2020. "The Spillover Effect between Carbon Emission Trading (CET) Price and Power Company Stock Price in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-17, August.
    18. Su, Xianfang & Zhao, Yachao, 2025. "Asymmetric time-frequency risk spillovers between the Fourth Industrial Revolution assets and commodity futures: Is economic policy uncertainty a driving factor?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Liu, Yike & Xu, Zihan & Xing, Xiaoyun & Zhu, Yuxuan, 2024. "Can Chinese investors manage climate risk domestically and globally?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate physical risk; Climate transition risk; Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers; Quantile connectedness approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325001382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.