IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v59y2024ics1544612323011248.html

Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Yuanyue
  • Li, Sijing

Abstract

Using panel data from 60 countries spanning from January 2006 to December 2021, we investigate how economic policy uncertainties (EPUs) affect two subcomponents of systemic risk (systemic linkage and individual risk), and differentiate the influences resulting from global and local EPU shocks. Our findings demonstrate that increased global shocks result in higher systemic linkages, while domestic uncertainties significantly contribute to individual risks. Cross-border bank loans and non-performing loans serve as the channels through which EPUs induce cascading effects. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals the roles of financial openness and financial development in shaping the EPUs–systemic risk nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Yuanyue & Li, Sijing, 2024. "Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:59:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323011248
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Wenjia & He, Wenjing & Xu, Dandan & Yue, Pengpeng, 2023. "Economic volatility, banks’ risk accumulation and systemic risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2016. "Financial markets development, business cycles, and bank risk in South America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 472-484.
    3. Paltalidis, Nikos & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kizys, Renatas & Koutelidakis, Yiannis, 2015. "Transmission channels of systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 36-52.
    4. Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and bank systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    5. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Systemic risk, Islamic banks, and the COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical investigation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    7. Kanno, Masayasu, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 105-130.
    8. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    10. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2021. "Network VAR models to measure financial contagion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    13. Tran, Dung Viet & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    14. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and non-performing loans: The moderating role of bank concentration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    15. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
    16. Feng-Wen Chen & Yuan Feng & Wei Wang, 2018. "Impacts of Financial Inclusion on Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Balli, Faruk & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Mudassar, Hasan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Cross-country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 179-183.
    18. Wellalage, Nirosha Hewa & Fernandez, Viviana & Bui, Trang, 2023. "Immigration and entrepreneurship: Is there a uniform relationship across countries?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 270-285.
    19. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-104.
    20. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    21. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    22. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    23. Tecles, Patricia Langsch & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Determinants of bank efficiency: The case of Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1587-1598, December.
    24. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    25. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    26. Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2019. "Systemic risk and bank business models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 365-384, April.
    27. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    28. Keyi Lan & Sichao Ma & Yuchao Peng & Fanzhi Wang, 2022. "Blessing in Disguise: Policy Uncertainty and Bank Systemic Risk," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4271-4285, December.
    29. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    30. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2015. "What is the major determinant of cross-border banking flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 137-147.
    31. Zhang, Xiaoming & Liang, Qian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "How does central bank transparency affect systemic risk? Evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-115.
    32. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    33. Wu, Ji & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty or financial uncertainty? An empirical analysis of bank risk-taking in Asian emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    34. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    35. Le, Thai-Ha & Bui, Manh-Tien & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    36. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    37. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    38. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    39. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.
    40. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Shen, Yinjie, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and banks’ loan pricing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    41. Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Zishan & Zhu, Huiming & Deng, Xi & Zeng, Tian, 2024. "Time-frequency tail risk spillover between ESG climate and high-carbon assets: The role of economic policy uncertainty and financial Stress," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Hu, Xin & Zhu, Bo, 2025. "Do climate risks matter for intersectoral systemic risk spillovers? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Liu, Bojing, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, cross-border capital inflows and credit asset allocation risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Lan, Sushan & Meng, Wanshan, 2024. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic risk of real enterprises: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    5. Md Hakim Ali & Md Akther Uddin & Md Arifur Rahman & Mohammad Kabir Hassan, 2026. "From uncertainty to banking instability: global evidence," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Xiang, Weiming & Ma, Chen, 2025. "Can banking competitiveness stimulate the development of regional green finance?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Sabani, Nazmie & Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "On the different impact of local and national sources of policy uncertainty on sectoral stock volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    8. Wang Lu & Wang Yuting & Zhao Ziying & Shang Lin & Wang Xiaoli, 2026. "The Dynamic Association of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Short-Term Cross-Border Capital Flows and Systemic Financial Risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-13.
    9. Marcella Lucchetta, 2025. "Bank risk in flux: policy interplay under uncertainty," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 379-390, September.
    10. Lucchetta, Marcella, 2024. "International aggregate risk: Effects on financial stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengyao & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and company stock prices: Empirical evidence from blockchain companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    2. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Stephanos Papadamou & Konstantinos Pitsilkas, 2025. "Policy uncertainty and non‐performing loans in Greece," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 231-252, March.
    5. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Gerek, Caner & Tuncez, Ahmet M., 2025. "Anatomy of a fall: Economic policy uncertainty and foreign income in large European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Japan Huynh & Thi Minh Hue Phan, 2024. "Uncertainty and bank risk in an emerging market: The moderating role of business models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Lai Wan-Fei & Goh Kim-Leng, 2025. "Loan Loss Provisions and Bank Value in the United States: A Moderation Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Ama Samarasinghe & Abdullahi D. Ahmed, 2025. "Economic Policy Uncertainty–Bank Risk Nexus: Cross‐Country Evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(4), pages 3844-3865, December.
    11. Buu Kiem Dang & Duc Toan Vo & Nguyen Tuyet Minh Ha, 2025. "The impact of economic uncertainty and institutional quality on bank profitability: global evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-29, July.
    12. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    13. Alam, Ahmed W. & Yu, Qilong & Bai, Shuxin & Banna, Hasanul, 2025. "Local economic uncertainty, bank efficiency, and financial risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty around the world: Implications for Vietnam," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Amine Tarazi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability," Working Papers hal-03259298, HAL.
    16. He, Yun & Li, Wei & Tan, Xiaofen & Sun, Yuchen, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, digital transformation, and bank systemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Justin S. Cox, 2025. "State‐level economic policy uncertainty and Bank loan pricing," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(2), pages 1614-1634, June.
    18. Sabani, Nazmie & Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "On the different impact of local and national sources of policy uncertainty on sectoral stock volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    19. Kang, Jingjing & Yang, Hao, 2025. "Regional economic policy uncertainty, implicit government guarantees and bank's risk-taking," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:59:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.