IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v39y2021ics1544612320303032.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?

Author

Listed:
  • Tran, Dung Viet
  • Hoang, Khanh
  • Nguyen, Cuong

Abstract

Investigating the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks’ business activities using a large sample of U.S. banks during 2000–2017, we find that banks are more likely to diversify their income stream into new activities generating non-interest income amid high EPU. The results indicate that EPU on CPI and bank M&A has no impact on banks’ decisions about non-interest income activities (NIIA) and, notably, small and medium banks increase their NIIA when EPU is elevated, whereas large banks do not. Importantly, EPU related to government spending has the highest impact on banks’ business activities, followed by news-based EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran, Dung Viet & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:39:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320303032
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101639
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612320303032
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101639?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2007. "Is there a diversification discount in financial conglomerates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 331-367, August.
    2. Sawada, Michiru, 2013. "How does the stock market value bank diversification? Empirical evidence from Japanese banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-61.
    3. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    4. Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
    5. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    6. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Houston, Reza, 2019. "Activity strategies, information asymmetry, and bank opacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 160-172.
    7. Tran, Dung Viet & Kabir Hassan, M. & Houston, Reza, 2019. "How does listing status affect bank risk? The effects of crisis, market discipline and regulatory pressure on listed and unlisted BHCs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 85-103.
    8. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    9. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhäuser, Markus, 2010. "The anatomy of bank diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1274-1287, June.
    10. Belén Villalonga, 2004. "Diversification Discount or Premium? New Evidence from the Business Information Tracking Series," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 479-506, April.
    11. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    12. Boot, Arnoud W. A., 2003. "Restructuring in the banking industry withimplications for Europe," EIB Papers 5/2003, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Kido, Yosuke, 2016. "On the link between the US economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 49-52.
    15. Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1997. "Agency problems and risk taking at banks," Research Paper 9709, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Belén Villalonga, 2004. "Does Diversification Cause the "Diversification Discount"?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(2), Summer.
    17. Saunders, Anthony & Schmid, Markus & Walter, Ingo, 2020. "Strategic scope and bank performance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    18. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    19. Collins, Jh & Shackelford, Da & Wahlen, Jm, 1995. "Bank Differences In The Coordination Of Regulatory Capital, Earnings, And Taxes," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 263-291.
    20. Carl R. Chen & Ying Sophie Huang & Ting Zhang, 2017. "Non-interest Income, Trading, and Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 19-53, February.
    21. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2013. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1757-1803, October.
    22. Zelong He & Jijun Niu, 2018. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on bank valuations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 345-347, March.
    23. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    24. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    25. Simon H. Kwan, 2004. "Risk and return of publicly held versus privately owned banks," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 97-107.
    26. Baele, Lieven & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2007. "Does the stock market value bank diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1999-2023, July.
    27. Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1997. "Agency problems and risk taking at banks," Staff Reports 29, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pinar Sener Tournus & Fatma Didin‐Sonmez & Elif Akben‐Selcuk, 2023. "How does the economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between financial slack and firm performance in emerging countries?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 171-186, January.
    2. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
    3. Whelsy Boungou & Charles Mawusi, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Banks' Interest Income: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 2003-2011.
    4. Ali Uyar & Simone Pizzi & Fabio Caputo & Cemil Kuzey & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2022. "Do shareholders reward or punish risky firms due to CSR reporting and assurance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1596-1620, July.
    5. Carmelo Algeri & Antonio F. Forgione & Carlo Migliardo, 2022. "Do spatial dependence and market power matter in the diversification of cooperative banks?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(3), November.
    6. Nguyen, Duc Nguyen & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Dang, Le Phuong Xuan, 2022. "Uncertainty and corporate default risk: Novel evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Mamun, Abdullah & Meier, Garrett & Wilson, Craig, 2023. "How do noninterest income activities affect bank holding company performance?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Chindasombatcharoen, Pongsapak & Chatjuthamard, Pattanaporn & Jiraporn, Pornsit, 2023. "Corporate culture, cultural diversification, and independent directors: Evidence from earnings conference calls," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Hoang, Khanh & Arif, Muhammad & Nguyen, Cuong, 2022. "Corporate investment and government policy during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 677-696.
    11. Kayani, Umar Nawaz & Arif, Muhammad & Hoang, Khanh, 2021. "Chairman age and corporate diversification: The cases of old and powerful captains in Chinese firms," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Khanh Hoang & Cuong Nguyen & Dung Viet Tran & Anh Phan, 2022. "International Corporate Cash Holdings and Firm-Level Exposure to COVID-19: Do Cultural Dimensions Matter?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, June.
    13. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    14. Shuhua Xu & Md. Qamruzzaman & Anass Hamadelneel Adow, 2021. "Is Financial Innovation Bestowed or a Curse for Economic Sustainably: The Mediating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Jianjia He & Danyuan Wang, 2023. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Industrial Convergence: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
    16. Aiping Wang & Bin Dou & Xingfang Guo & Haifeng Hu, 2023. "Economic Policy Uncertainty: Does It Truly Matter?—Evidence from Corporate Fraudulent Behaviors in Chinese Capital Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-31, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alam, Ahmed W. & Pezzo, Luca & Abdul-Majid, Mariani, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, agency problem, and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & AlTalafha, Sarah H. & Turunen-Red, Arja, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, the use of derivatives: Evidence from U.S. bank holdingcompanies (BHCs)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Tran, Dung Viet & Houston, Reza, 2021. "The effects of policy uncertainty on bank loan loss provisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and bank lending," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 952-977.
    6. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    7. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    9. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    11. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Robert Nash & He (Helen) Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and insider trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 817-854, December.
    12. Chun Lu & James Routledge & Kam C. Chan & Tongxia Li, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and inventory behavior: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 919-948, November.
    13. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    15. Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Amine Tarazi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability," Working Papers hal-03259298, HAL.
    16. Jeon, Bang Nam & Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: New consolidating evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    17. Jouida, Sameh & Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Hellara, Slaheddine, 2017. "The effects of activity and geographic diversification on performance: Evidence from French financial institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 920-939.
    18. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.
    19. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
    20. Dung V. Tran & M. Kabir Hassan & Isabelle Girerd‐Potin & Pascal Louvet, 2020. "Activity Strategies, Agency Problems, And Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 575-613, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activity strategies; Banking; Diversification; Policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:39:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320303032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.