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The effect of economic policy uncertainty on bank valuations

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  • Zelong He
  • Jijun Niu

Abstract

This article examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects bank valuations. Using a large sample of banks over a long period, we find that EPU has a negative effect on bank valuations. One explanation for this result is that EPU reduces bank loan growth, and lower loan growth then leads to lower bank valuations. Consistent with this explanation, we find that the negative effect of EPU is more pronounced for banks with a higher ratio of loans to total assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Zelong He & Jijun Niu, 2018. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on bank valuations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 345-347, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:5:p:345-347
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1321832
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2020. "Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?," Working Papers hal-02509450, HAL.
    2. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    4. Desalegn, Tigist Abebe & Zhu, Hongquan, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank earnings opacity? Evidence from China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1000-1015.
    5. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    7. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.
    8. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank nonperforming loans and loan loss provisions: are they correlated?," MPRA Paper 112381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    12. Antonio J. Dayag & Fernando Trinidad, 2019. "A Critical Assessment on Bank Valuation in Existing Literature in the Last Decade," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 44-58, July.
    13. Tanveer Bagh & Abdul Waheed & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mirza Muhammad Naseer, 2023. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Stock Price Index: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Wavelet Coherence Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    14. Imad Jabbouri & Omar Farooq & Rachid Jabbouri, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty nexus with the value relevance of advertising: Evidence from an emerging market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2342-2359, April.
    15. Zhigang Ouyang & Fengyu Liu & Ge Zhai & Svitlana Bilan, 2020. "Assessment of Resident Happiness under Uncertainty of Economic Policies: Empirical Evidences from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    16. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    17. Tran, Dung Viet & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    18. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alam, Ahmed W. & Pezzo, Luca & Abdul-Majid, Mariani, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, agency problem, and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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