IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v65y2025i2p1614-1634.html

State‐level economic policy uncertainty and Bank loan pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Justin S. Cox

Abstract

We use the state‐level economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index of Baker et al. (Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 132, 81) and find that state‐level EPU increases interest income but lowers total loan growth, resulting in higher loan pricing. We show increases in state‐level EPU have a stronger impact on small‐ and medium‐sized commercial banks than their large‐bank counterparts. Finally, we control for nationwide measures of EPU, finding the effects of state‐level EPU are as economically significant as the national‐level policy uncertainty measure. However, controlling for the interaction between economic uncertainty and firm size, we find that national‐level EPU is more economically significant than state‐level EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin S. Cox, 2025. "State‐level economic policy uncertainty and Bank loan pricing," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(2), pages 1614-1634, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:65:y:2025:i:2:p:1614-1634
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.13378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.13378
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.13378?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zelong He & Jijun Niu, 2018. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on bank valuations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 345-347, March.
    2. Li, Xiang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Berger, Allen N. & Karakaplan, Mustafa U. & Roman, Raluca A., 2023. "Whose bailout is it anyway? The roles of politics in PPP bailouts of small businesses vs. banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Berger, Allen N. & Guedhami, Omrane & Kim, Hugh H. & Li, Xinming, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank liquidity hoarding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "State-level economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm financial stability: Is there any political insurance?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Blau, Benjamin M. & Brough, Tyler J. & Thomas, Diana W., 2013. "Corporate lobbying, political connections, and the bailout of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3007-3017.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    8. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    9. Phan, Hieu V. & Nguyen, Nam H. & Nguyen, Hien T. & Hegde, Shantaram, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 71-82.
    10. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Wu, Qiang, 2012. "Do corporate boards matter during the current financial crisis?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 39-52.
    11. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    12. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    13. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Li, Zhao & Wu, Weixing, 2022. "Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Thomas Lambert, 2019. "Lobbying on Regulatory Enforcement Actions: Evidence from U.S. Commercial and Savings Banks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2545-2572, June.
    16. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    17. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    18. Chi-Young Choi, 2023. "State political uncertainty and local housing markets - Evidence from U.S. mid-term gubernatorial elections," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(57), pages 6717-6738, December.
    19. Tigist Abebe Desalegn & Hongquan Zhu & Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank competition and financial stability," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 123-139, February.
    20. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    21. Peterson K. Ozili & Thankom G. Arun, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 803-830, August.
    22. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    23. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "Bank Market Power and SME Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 309-340.
    24. Tran, Dung Viet & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    25. Si, Deng-Kui & Wan, Shen & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    26. Robert DeYoung & William Hunter & Gregory Udell, 2004. "The Past, Present, and Probable Future for Community Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 85-133, April.
    27. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.
    28. Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos & Chul Park, Jung, 2012. "Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 196-228.
    29. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    30. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    31. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    32. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Shen, Yinjie, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and banks’ loan pricing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    33. Košak, Marko & Li, Shaofang & Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2015. "Quality of bank capital and bank lending behavior during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    34. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-9, September.
    35. Li, Lei, 2013. "TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4777-4792.
    36. Tian, Jing & Li, Haiwei & You, Pin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank loan, and corporate innovation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alam, Ahmed W. & Yu, Qilong & Bai, Shuxin & Banna, Hasanul, 2025. "Local economic uncertainty, bank efficiency, and financial risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Lifang, 2025. "Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    2. Kang, Jingjing & Yang, Hao, 2025. "Regional economic policy uncertainty, implicit government guarantees and bank's risk-taking," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty around the world: Implications for Vietnam," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Gerek, Caner & Tuncez, Ahmet M., 2025. "Anatomy of a fall: Economic policy uncertainty and foreign income in large European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Hu, Chunyang & Zhou, Yang, 2025. "Do domestic and US economic policy uncertainty increase China’s macro-financial risk connectedness?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Stephanos Papadamou & Konstantinos Pitsilkas, 2025. "Policy uncertainty and non‐performing loans in Greece," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 231-252, March.
    8. Bales, Stephan & Burghartz, Kaspar & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Hitz, Lukas, 2023. "Does the source of uncertainty matter? The impact of financial, newspaper and Twitter-based measures on U.S. banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.
    10. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    11. Huang, Chenghao & Luo, Chenyu & Kuang, Xuewen, 2025. "Share repurchases under economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Minh N. Nguyen & Hung M. Pham & Anh Phan & Ahmed W. Alam & Dung V. Tran, 2024. "BHC brilliance in the fog of uncertainty: Illuminating trends in bank performance," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 437-461, June.
    13. Tien V. Nguyen & Anh Phan & Dung Viet Tran, 2023. "Activity strategies, bank stability and policy uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 959-983, December.
    14. Deng, Yuanyue & Li, Sijing, 2024. "Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Lai Wan-Fei & Goh Kim-Leng, 2025. "Loan Loss Provisions and Bank Value in the United States: A Moderation Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    16. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Mansi, Sattar & Wang, He (Helen), 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, institutional environments, and corporate cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Badar Nadeem Ashraf, 2021. "Is Economic Uncertainty a Risk Factor in Bank Loan Pricing Decisions? International Evidence," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Alam, Ahmed W. & Yu, Qilong & Bai, Shuxin & Banna, Hasanul, 2025. "Local economic uncertainty, bank efficiency, and financial risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Huanyu Ma & Xuegang Sun, 2025. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on earnings value relevance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2427-2449, July.
    20. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:65:y:2025:i:2:p:1614-1634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.