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Network VAR models to measure financial contagion

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  • Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix
  • Giudici, Paolo
  • Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh

Abstract

Financial contagion among countries can arise from different channels, the most important of which are financial markets and bank lending. The paper aims to build an econometric network approach to understand the extent to which contagion spillovers (from one country to another) aris from financial markets, from bank lending, or from both. To achieve this aim we consider a model specification strategy which combines Vector Autoregressive models with network models. The paper contributes to the contagion literature with a model that can consider bank exposures and financial market prices, jointly and not only separately. From an empirical viewpoint, our results show that both bilateral exposures and market prices act as contagion channels in the transmission of shocks arising from a country to other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2021. "Network VAR models to measure financial contagion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820302059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101318
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Shanshan Jiang & Jie Wang & Ruiting Dong & Yutong Li & Min Xia, 2023. "Systemic Risk with Multi-Channel Risk Contagion in the Interbank Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Qicheng Zhao & Zhouwei Wang & Yuping Song, 2024. "Systematic Research on Multi-dimensional and Multiple Correlation Contagion Networks of Extreme Risk in China’s Banking Industry," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1137-1162, August.
    4. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Celani, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola, 2024. "Measuring the impact of the EU health emergency response authority on the economic sectors and the public sentiment," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Anca Ionășcuți & Bogdan Dima, 2022. "Contagion effects on financial markets risk," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 12(7), pages 105-133, May.
    6. Kanas, Angelos & Molyneux, Philip & Zervopoulos, Panagiotis D., 2023. "Systemic risk and CO2 emissions in the U.S," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Deng, Yuanyue & Li, Sijing, 2024. "Do global and local economic policy uncertainties matter for systemic risk in the international banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Li, Jingwei & Li, Shouwei, 2023. "Immunization of systemic risk in trade–investment networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).
    9. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Cerchiello, Paola & Scaramozzino, Roberta, 2022. "Network based evidence of the financial impact of Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Arturo Cifuentes & Rodrigo Roman, 2024. "Risk Analysis of Conglomerates with Debt and Equity Links," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-19, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Inference; Financial Contagion; Network Models; VAR; Bank Lending; Financial Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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