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The global effects of global risk and uncertainty

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  • Bonciani, Dario
  • Ricci, Martino

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the effects of a shock to global financial uncertainty and risk aversion on real economic activity. To this end, we extract a global factor, which explains approximately 40% of the variance of about 1000 risky asset returns from around the world. We then study how shocks to the factor affect economic activity in 36 advanced and emerging small open economies by estimating local projections in a panel regression framework. We find the output responses to be quite heterogeneous across countries but, in general, negative and persistent. Furthermore, the effects of shocks to the global factor are stronger in countries with a higher degree of trade and/or financial openness, as well as in countries with higher levels of external debt, less developed financial sectors, and higher risk rating. JEL Classification: C30, F41, E32, F65

Suggested Citation

  • Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2018. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2179, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182179
    Note: 2685107
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    3. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
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    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2020. "Revising the Impact of Financial and Non-Financial Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 103019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ademmer, Martin & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2019 - Weltwirtschaft ohne Schwung [World Economy Summer 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 55, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and global uncertainty: A survey and some new results," CAMA Working Papers 2019-75, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2021. "Global Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 8885, CESifo.
    9. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global financial cycle; local projection; macroeconomic transmission; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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