IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices

In this paper we apply Bayesian methods to estimate a stochastic volatility model using both the prices of the asset and the prices of options written on the asset. Implicit posterior densities for the parameters of the volatility model, for the latent volatilities and for the market price of volatility risk are produced. The method involves augmenting the data generating process associated with a panel of option prices with the probability density function describing the dynamics of the underlying bivariate spot price and volatility process. Posterior results are produced via a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Candidate draws which assume a given dynamic process for the volatility are re-weighted according to the information in both the option and spot price data. The method is illustrated using the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model, based on data simulated to mimic the features of recent S&P500 spot and option price data. The way in which alternative option pricing models can be ranked, via Bayes Factors and via fit, predictive and hedging performance, is demonstrated.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2002/wp2-02.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 2/02.

as
in new window

Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2002-2
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61-3-9905-2489
Fax: +61-3-9905-5474
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/ Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  2. Martin, G.M. & Forbes, C.S. & Martin, V.L., 2000. "Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August.
  4. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
  5. Chao, J. C. & Phillips, P. C. B., 1998. "Posterior distributions in limited information analysis of the simultaneous equations model using the Jeffreys prior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 49-86, August.
  6. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.
  7. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  8. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
  11. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
  12. Guo, Dajiang, 1998. "The Risk Premium of Volatility Implicit in Currency Options," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 498-507, October.
  13. Yuri Kifer, 2000. "Game options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 443-463.
  14. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
  15. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
  16. Chernov, Mikhail & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "A study towards a unified approach to the joint estimation of objective and risk neutral measures for the purpose of options valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 407-458, June.
  17. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2002-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Grose)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.