MCMC Bayesian Estimation of a Skew-GED Stochastic Volatility Model
In this paper we present a stochastic volatility model assuming that the return shock has a Skew-GED distribution. This allows a parsimonious yet flexible treatment of asymmetry and heavy tails in the conditional distribution of returns. The Skew-GED distribution nests both the GED, the Skew-normal and the normal densities as special cases so that specification tests are easily performed. Inference is conducted under a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain MonteCarlo methods for computing the posterior distributions of the parameters. More precisely, our Gibbs-MH updating scheme makes use of the Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings methodology as proposed by Tierney and Mira (1999), and of Adaptive-Rejection Metropolis sampling. We apply this methodology to a data set of daily and weekly exchange rates. Our results suggest that daily returns are mostly symmetric with fat-tailed distributions while weekly returns exhibit both significant asymmetry and fat tails.
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Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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- Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Dandapani, Krishnan & Hamid, Shahid & Prakash, Arun J., 1997. "Portfolio selection and skewness: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 143-167, February.
- Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for Generalized Stochastic Volatility Models," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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