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MCMC Bayesian Estimation of a Skew-GED Stochastic Volatility Model

  • Cappuccio Nunzio

    ()

    (University of Padova)

  • Lubian Diego

    ()

    (University of Verona, Italy)

  • Raggi Davide

    ()

    (Università degli Studi di Verona)

In this paper we present a stochastic volatility model assuming that the return shock has a Skew-GED distribution. This allows a parsimonious yet flexible treatment of asymmetry and heavy tails in the conditional distribution of returns. The Skew-GED distribution nests both the GED, the Skew-normal and the normal densities as special cases so that specification tests are easily performed. Inference is conducted under a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain MonteCarlo methods for computing the posterior distributions of the parameters. More precisely, our Gibbs-MH updating scheme makes use of the Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings methodology as proposed by Tierney and Mira (1999), and of Adaptive-Rejection Metropolis sampling. We apply this methodology to a data set of daily and weekly exchange rates. Our results suggest that daily returns are mostly symmetric with fat-tailed distributions while weekly returns exhibit both significant asymmetry and fat tails.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:8:y:2004:i:2:n:6
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  1. Antonietta Mira, 2001. "On Metropolis-Hastings algorithms with delayed rejection," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3-4), pages 231-241.
  2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Dandapani, Krishnan & Hamid, Shahid & Prakash, Arun J., 1997. "Portfolio selection and skewness: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 143-167, February.
  5. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
  6. Roman Liesenfeld & Robert C. Jung, 2000. "Stochastic volatility models: conditional normality versus heavy-tailed distributions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 137-160.
  7. Éric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter E. Rossi, 1995. "Models and Priors for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-18, CIRANO.
  8. C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  9. Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
  10. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. " Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
  11. Mark Steel, 1998. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with flexible tails," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 109-143.
  12. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Gary Koop & M. F. J. Steel, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Frontier Models," ESE Discussion Papers 19, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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