IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v66y2023ics0275531923001320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Yajie
  • Zhao, Longfeng
  • Zhu, Yipin
  • Chen, Lin
  • Wang, Gangjin
  • Wang, Chao

Abstract

We investigate dynamic integration and risk transmission among major global financial markets around the Russia-Ukraine conflict by implementing the TVP-VAR frequency model for both a high and a low-frequency band. We also employ wavelet coherence to supplement our analysis. Results show that (i) the global financial system is highly connected during the entire period, and the dynamic spillovers reach unprecedented heights on the day of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; (ii) Russia comes out as a spillover leader, whereas the geopolitical risk index, Dow Jones Commodity, and Bitcoin are the major targets of spillovers; and (iii) for the entire sample period, short-term connectedness gains much prominence. This study uncovers the real landscape of financial spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which can help investors and policymakers manage the risk exposure and avoid unexpected losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yajie & Zhao, Longfeng & Zhu, Yipin & Chen, Lin & Wang, Gangjin & Wang, Chao, 2023. "Spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923001320
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naeem, Muhammad & Umar, Zaghum & Ahmed, Sheraz & Ferrouhi, El Mehdi, 2020. "Dynamic dependence between ETFs and crude oil prices by using EGARCH-Copula approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    2. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "Valuation of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    4. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2021. "Volatility transmission and spillover dynamics across financial markets: the role of geopolitical risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Iqbal, Najaf & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir, 2022. "Quantifying the asymmetric spillovers in sustainable investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Zi-Luo & Ouyang, Wen-Pei & Yu, Qing-Rui, 2024. "Risk spillover effects of the Israel–Hamas War on global financial and commodity markets: A time–frequency and network analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Abdollahi, Hooman & Junttila, Juha-Pekka & Lehkonen, Heikki, 2024. "Clustering asset markets based on volatility connectedness to political news," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2024. "Measuring spatial impacts and tracking cross-border risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 50-84.
    4. Balash, Vladimir & Faizliev, Alexey, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across Russian oil and gas sector. Evidence of the impact of global markets and extraordinary events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2024. "Could the Russia-Ukraine war stir up the persistent memory of interconnectivity among Islamic equity markets, energy commodities, and environmental factors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Wu, Baoxiu & Liu, Fang, 2024. "Tail risk transmission from the United States to emerging stock Markets: Empirical evidence from multivariate quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2024. "Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Apostolakis, George N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Monetary policy and uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a wavelet and frequency connectedness analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Mohnot, Rajesh & Hamouda, Foued & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2024. "Risk dynamics in energy transition: Evaluating downside risks and interconnectedness in fossil fuel and renewable energy markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Aharon, David Y. & Esparcia, Carlos & AlWahedi, Wafa, 2022. "Spillovers between sovereign yield curve components and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.
    12. Alomari, Mohammad & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Extreme return spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and precious metals futures markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Hanif, Hasan & Gubareva, Mariya, 2024. "The resilience of Shariah-compliant investments: Probing the static and dynamic connectedness between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and GCC equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Umar, Zaghum & Iqbal, Najaf & Teplova, Tamara & Tan, Duojiao, 2024. "Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Majid Mirzaee Ghazani & Ali Akbar Momeni Malekshah & Reza Khosravi, 2024. "Analyzing time–frequency connectedness between cryptocurrencies, stock indices, and benchmark crude oils during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    16. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    18. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Saqib Farid & Fiza Qureshi & Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, 2023. "Global factors and the transmission between United States and emerging stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3488-3510, October.
    19. Xu, Danyang & Corbet, Shaen & Lang, Chunlin & Hu, Yang, 2024. "Understanding dynamic return connectedness and portfolio strategies among international sustainable exchange-traded funds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming, 2023. "Comparing the impact of Chinese and U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of major global stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia-Ukraine conflict; TVP-VAR; Risk spillover network; Frequency connectedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.