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A Vector Error Correction Model for the Relationship between Public Debt and Inflation in Germany

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  • Andreas Nastansky
  • Alexander Mehnert
  • Hans Gerhard Strohe

Abstract

In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to be examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Nastansky & Alexander Mehnert & Hans Gerhard Strohe, 2014. "A Vector Error Correction Model for the Relationship between Public Debt and Inflation in Germany," Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge 51, Universität Potsdam, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:pot:statdp:51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    2. Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "The European Central Bank: Lender of Last Resort in the Government Bond Markets?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3569, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    4. Uwe Wagschal & Georg Wenzelburger & Thieß Petersen & Ole Wintermann, 2009. "Determinanten der Staatsverschuldung in den deutschen Bundesländern," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 89(3), pages 204-212, March.
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    6. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 393-442 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Bleaney, Michael, 1996. "Inflation and Public Debt," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(66), pages 141-155, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition; Public Debt; Inflation; Money Supply; Vector Error Correction Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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