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Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

  • Joseph, Nathan Lael
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-45BHHP6-3/2/7a418433112aaba50481cf6842421154
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 351-367

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:19:y:2003:i:3:p:351-367
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    5. Chapman, D.A., 1992. "Cotrending and the Stationarity of the Real Interest Rate," RCER Working Papers 330, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    8. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, 08.
    9. Stone, Bernell K., 1974. "Systematic Interest-Rate Risk in a Two-Index Model of Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(05), pages 709-721, November.
    10. Bodart, V. & Reding, P., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regime, Volatility and International Correlations on Bond and Stock Markets," Papers 204, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
    11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    12. repec:fth:inseep:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    14. Eun, Cheol S & Resnick, Bruce G, 1988. " Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Forward Contracts, and International Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 197-215, March.
    15. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
    18. James H. Gilkeson & Stephen D. Smith, 1992. "The convexity trap: pitfalls in financing mortgage portfolios and related securities," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Nov, pages 14-27.
    19. Chamberlain, Sandra & Howe, John S. & Popper, Helen, 1997. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 871-892, June.
    20. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    21. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-29, May.
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