IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/yor/yorken/07-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on the Equity Premium (This is an extensively revised version of earlier paper No. 06/04)

Author

Listed:
  • Peter N Smith
  • Steffen Sorensen
  • Mike Wickens

Abstract

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 - 2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the equity risk premium, and the other is through the volatility of returns. We provide support for previous findings based on simple correlation analysis that the relation is asymmetric with downturns in the business cycle having a greater negative impact on stock returns than the positive effect of upturns. We also obtain a new result, that demand and supply shocks affect stock returns differently. We find that negative supply shocks are a very important source of increases in the risk premium. Our model of the relation between returns and their volatility encompasses the CAPM and the results demonstrate the importance of allowing for a time-varying price of volatility risk. The model is implemented using a multi-variate GARCH-in-mean model with an asymmetric time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity and correlation structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter N Smith & Steffen Sorensen & Mike Wickens, 2007. "The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on the Equity Premium (This is an extensively revised version of earlier paper No. 06/04)," Discussion Papers 07/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2007/0711.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wickens, Michael R. & Smith, Peter N, 2002. "Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk," Discussion Papers 03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:621-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2001. "Nonlinear Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 621-646, September.
    5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    4. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
    5. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Peter N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, 2005. "The asymmetric effect of the business cycle on the relation between stock market returns and their volatility," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 47, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
    8. Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
    9. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    10. Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Giovanna Ferraro, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio optimization through pairs trading cointegrated strategy in long-term investment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 81-99, April.
    11. Tzuo Hann Law & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2017. "Fearing the Fed: How Wall Street Reads Main Street," 2017 Meeting Papers 1632, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    13. Bilgehan TEKIN & Erol YENER, 2019. "The causality between economic growth and stock market in developing and developed countries: Toda-Yamamoto approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 79-90, Summer.
    14. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    15. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    16. Martin Širůček, 2013. "Impact of money supply on stock bubbles," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2835-2842.
    17. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    18. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Susana Iglesias Antelo & Jean-Pierre Levy Mangin, 2010. "An analysis of the risk-return relationship in the Spanish capital market using a structural equation model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1397-1403.
    20. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity returns; risk premium; asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paul Hodgson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deyoruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.