How to Turn a Recession into a Depression: The Role of the Media, of the Politicians, and of the Political Analysts
By modifying slightly a standard neoclassical-synthesis macroeconomic model, this paper investigates the effects of an adverse supply or demand shock on output, employment, investment, prices, interest rates, and the exchange rate. The paper focuses on the possibility of the magnification of these effects by the media, the politicians, and the political analysts, who induce herd-behavior by overstating the size of the shock. I find that such behavior destabilizes the economy by magnifying the amplitude of the business cycle and by hurting private investment, which might cause expansions to be shorter and contractions to last longer.
|Date of creation:||31 Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:||15 Sep 2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Modern Economy November.1(2010): pp. 144-148|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Karel Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2008.
"The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 531-539.
- Alsem, Karel-Jan & Brakman, Steven & Hoogduin, Lex & Kuper, Gerard, 2004. "The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?," CCSO Working Papers 200410, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Karel-Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2004. "The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?," DNB Working Papers 011, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Karel-Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2004. "The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1328, CESifo Group Munich.
- Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 2001.
"Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt41f2h196, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
- George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004.
- Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2002.
NBER Working Papers
9295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Media Bias," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1981, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1995.
"Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1092, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
- Vítor Castro, 2008.
"The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence,"
NIPE Working Papers
18/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
- Castro, Vítor, 2008. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions : More than duration dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 860, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Conlisk, John, 1996. "Bounded rationality and market fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-250, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.