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A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate

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  • Ichiro Muto

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this study, we theoretically investigate the potential role of the reference rate in stabilizing or destabilizing an interbank market with an environment where individual banks cannot fully identify the nature of underlying shocks affecting their interbank transactions. We show that a noise-free reference rate based on a sufficient number of sample transactions can help to make the market interest rate less volatile, whereas the stabilizing effects of the reference rate are significantly reduced if the reported interest rates contain some noisy components. Nevertheless, by increasing the number of sample transactions reflected in the reference rate, the adverse effects of the noise can be mitigated (or eliminated) provided the noise is idiosyncratic to individual transactions. However, if the noise is common to multiple transactions, then the adverse effects of the noisy reference rate cannot be reduced simply by increasing the number of sample transactions. This suggests that the noise in the interest rates reported by just a few of large banks can end up making the entire market more volatile, thereby impairing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Muto, 2012. "A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:12-e-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Nao Sudou, 2012. "Financial Markets, Monetary Policy and Reference Rates: Assessments in DSGE Framework," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    2. Shun Kobayashi, 2012. "Application of a Search Model to Appropriate Designing of Reference Rates: Actual Transactions and Expert Judgment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    3. Hiroshi Kawata & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Koji Nakamura & Yuki Teranishi & Saiki Tsuchiya, 2012. "Effects of the Loss and Correction of a Reference Rate on Japan's Economy and Financial System: Analysis Using the Financial Macro-econometric Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    4. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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