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Nonlinear impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on credit scale: Evidence from China

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  • Jiang, Yonghong
  • He, Luli
  • Meng, Juan
  • Nie, He

Abstract

We explore the nonlinear effect of economic policy uncertainty shocks on the credit scale in China by applying a Smooth Transition VAR Model and the monthly data from April 1996 to April 2017. We find that the economic growth during the time of prosperity is more vulnerable to economic policy uncertainty shocks in China and the shocks bring the economic growth a significant decline. Furthermore, the negative response of economic policy uncertainty shocks to credit scale is larger in expansions than in recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Yonghong & He, Luli & Meng, Juan & Nie, He, 2019. "Nonlinear impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on credit scale: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 626-634.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:521:y:2019:i:c:p:626-634
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.100
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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Papers 2003.06184, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. Cui Jinxin & Zou Huiwen, 2020. "Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(5), pages 401-433, October.
    4. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    5. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    6. Peng Liu & Daxin Dong, 2020. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Trade Credit Provision: The Role of Social Trust," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Syeda Beena Zaidi & Abidullah Khan & Shabeer Khan & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Abul Ala Noman, 2023. "Connectedness between Pakistan’s Stock Markets with Global Factors: An Application of Quantile VAR Network Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Désiré Avom & Henri Njangang & Larissa Nawo, 2020. "World Economic Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1457-1464.
    9. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and financial volatility: 40 days of fasting and fear," Papers 2003.04005, arXiv.org.
    10. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Ying & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Effects of non-ferrous metal prices and uncertainty on industry stock market under different market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Lingling Zhou & Tao Shi & Qian Zhou, 2023. "Is ICT Development Conducive to Reducing the Vulnerability of Low-Carbon Energy? Evidence from OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Yaming Ma & Ziwei Wang & Feng He, 2022. "How do economic policy uncertainties affect stock market volatility? Evidence from G7 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2303-2325, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Credit scale; Smooth transition vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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